Following a convincing win against Georgia to keep their NCAA Tournament dreams alive the Florida Gators (18-11, 8-8 SEC) will head to Nashville to take on the Vanderbilt Commodores (14-14, 6-10 SEC). After beating the Bulldogs the Gators improved to 51st in the NET from 55th entering the game which is a great improvement, but it’s far from one that ensures they’ll hear their name called on Selection Sunday. They still have plenty of work to do and that starts by taking care of business and beating the Commodores who are currently 11th in the SEC.
In recent weeks, Vanderbilt has done the Gators a huge favor leading up to this game. The Commodores have been slowly rising up in the NET rankings and are currently 75th, meaning that since this game is being played in Nashville it will be a quadrant-1 opportunity for the Gators. Playing a team between 1-75 in the NET on the road makes it a quad-1 game, meaning the Commodores are just on the edge of making this a really quality game for Florida. Here’s the catch–if the Gators do beat the Commodores, it’s likely Vanderbilt will drop in the NET, making it a quad-2 game for the Gators. It’s possible that Vanderbilt could still improve their ranking in the final weeks making it a quad-1 game for the Gators, but in all likelihood it will be a quad-2. No matter what it ends up being, it’s a win the Gators desperately need. They’ve put themselves in a position where this is a must-win game, regardless of what quadrant it ends up being. Though, it would certainly help out a lot more if it ended up being quad-1.
Florida and Vanderbilt already had one meeting this season and the Gators came away with a 61-42 drubbing in which they completely suffocated the Commodores defensively. Scoring only 14 points in the second half it was one of Vanderbilt’s worst offensive performances of the season which completely dismissed what was a pretty good defensive effort in slowing down the Gators.
Colin Castleton was out to injury in this one leading to a Jason Jitoboh start and he performed well with 8 points and 10 rebounds, dominating a smaller Vanderbilt frontcourt with his bulky frame. Tyree Appleby led the Gators in scoring with 11 points, a relatively low number that speaks to the slow tempo this game was played at.
Florida’s win was all about their defense which started by limiting superstar scoring guard Scotty Pippen Jr. to only 6 points, easily the lowest scoring output of the season for one of the best scorers in the country. Pippen is averaging 20 points and 4 assists per game this season, and he hung 23, 32, and 18 points in each of his three meetings with Florida last season so he can be extremely explosive and the Gators did well to jam him up in ball screens and keep him from getting loose.
Since then Vanderbilt is 4-6, though they’ve had a handful of good performances. They easily beat an LSU team that beat the Gators, and they stayed in close games with Auburn, Alabama, and Kentucky. Even though they weren’t able to put together wins in those games they played high quality opponents tight which boosted their metrics which is why they actually have a favorable NET ranking that speaks to the improvements they have made since the last couple of years.
Vanderbilt’s improvement this year has been all about their defense which has allowed them to stay in games with some of the potent offenses in the SEC. Head coach Jerry Stackhouse spent a number of years as a head coach in the G League and assistant coach in the NBA so he likes to use some popular NBA defensive strategies and many of them have worked at the college level, particularly his “drop” ball screen coverage. This is a conservative way of guarding ball screens where the ball handler’s defender chases the ball handler over top of the screen to take away a pull up three opportunity, while the big man “drops” towards the paint to protect the rim and wall off any straight line drives. It gives up open shots in the midrange, but generally allows help defenders to stay at home on shooters and limit three-point attempts. This strategy has been outstanding for the Commodores who are 8th in the country in pick and roll defense, and it’s something the Gators will have to be prepared for.
Stackhouse has also started mixing in a bit more zone than he has in the past, a 2-3 zone that is relatively low-risk and allows him to change the tempo of the game and protect his star Scotty Pippen Jr from picking up cheap fouls.
Vanderbilt’s generally conservative defensive schemes means they won’t put themselves out of position and they put the pressure on the offense to make plays to beat them. They won’t shoot gaps, trap, or be overly aggressive and expose themselves, they’ll stay in position and make offenses make plays. Even though they aren’t super disruptive, they have been able to force a lot of turnovers. Many of these turnovers are unforced errors from their opponents who have tried to force plays as opposed to Vanderbilt dictating terms and forcing bad plays, and how that works out for a Florida team who struggles greatly with turnovers will be interesting to see.
If there is one thing that might give you a sigh of relief as a Florida fan, it’s that Vanderbilt isn’t a team that attacks the offensive glass much. Once again, Stackhouse is bringing an NBA philosophy to this element of the game. He would much rather get back in transition defense than attack the offensive glass so they don’t often pursue second chance opportunities. After the Georgia game the Gators are now 338th in the country in defensive rebounding percentage so they have shown that pretty much any team can punish them on the glass, so perhaps we will see Vanderbilt come out playing more aggressively on the glass than they normally do.
The key to the game for Florida will be finding their offensive rhythm against a solid Vanderbilt defense. Yes, Florida just had a solid offensive performance against Georgia, but the Bulldogs are 310th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. Vanderbilt is a more sound defensive team and their style won’t lead to breakdowns that the Gators can exploit for easy points.
Phlandrous Fleming’s explosive game against Georgia is encouraging moving into the matchup with Vanderbilt as many of his points were self- creation possessions where he got to a favorable spot, rose up, and made a shot. Vanderbilt will make the Gators one on one scorers and Fleming could give the Gators a second option behind Tyree Appleby. Luckily, Appleby has been playing outstanding basketball as of late and he’ll get chances to put up shots against the drop pick and roll coverage of Vanderbilt. The biggest question for Florida offensively will be where shots could come from for their spot up shooting options like Myreon Jones and Brandon McKissic. Vanderbilt’s defense is structured to take away those kinds of attempts, so these players may have to find some other ways they can contribute.
This game takes place Tuesday, March 1st at 8:30 ET (note the late start), and will be televised on SEC Network.