Following a rocky performance on Sunday that saw the Gators fall on the road to UConn and tumble out of the AP Pool they’ll have a sneakily difficult game to right the ship against Saint Joseph’s in the first game of the Charleston classic. In their game against UConn the Gators struggled once again to put points on the board, a recurring theme in the early portion of this season, and even though their defense kept them in the game they weren’t able to execute enough offensively down the stretch to come out victorious. There won’t be any easy games in Charleston but if the Gators can get a win against Saint Joseph’s they will hopefully gain some positive momentum that can carry them through the non-conference schedule.
Why Saint Joseph’s Will Be A Sneakily Tough Game
Before UConn beat the Gators they took on Saint Joseph’s and lost by a decent margin, 96-87 despite the game being in Storrs. On the surface this might make Florida’s loss to UConn seem even worse considering that Saint Joseph’s was picked to be a lower-tier team in the Atlantic 10 but that could be only scratching the surface. Try to follow me here…
Florida lost to UConn.
UConn lost to Saint Joseph’s.
Saint Joseph’s lost to Loyola-Chicago.
Loyola-Chicago lost to Coppin State.
Coppin State is 1-4 with their only win coming over Loyola-Chicago while they’ve taken losses to Rider, Northern Illinois, Northern Kentucky, and Virginia Tech (in blowout fashion 74-42.
Using this kind of “logic” is a fool’s study in college basketball and this isn’t a great way of figuring out exactly who is better than who but it’s an interesting chain that shows that the loss to UConn could hurt at the end of the year. The NET rankings also come to conclusions similar to this transitive look at team records and until the first rankings are released we have to look at who beat who in a way similar to this.
Anyways, Saint Joseph is the only team the Gators need to worry about now and considering the fact that they don’t have much more room for error in the non-conference it’s a game they really need.
Saint Joseph’s Season At A Glance
The Saint Joseph’s Hawks are 2-2 on the season with wins over UConn and Bradley and losses to Old Dominion and Loyola-Chicago. In addition to playing in the Charleston Classic they’ve got a game against Villanova upcoming in their non-conference schedule before heading to what’s looking like a frisky Atlantic 10.
How Saint Joseph’s Beat UConn
Saint Joseph’s beat UConn, something the Gators couldn’t do, so it’s worth looking at what the Hawks did to try to see what the Gators can expect. Unlike the Gators who tried to play slowly against the Huskies the Hawks really pushed tempo and looked to score off of the break. The Hawks are a team that wants to play fast (currently 41st in the country in offensive possession length) which is something the Huskies wanted to do as well and in this particular matchup Saint Joseph’s executed better and that’s what won them the game. It should also be noted that Saint Joseph’s was up by high double digits for a lot of the game and they actually dominated more than the 96-87 final score would indicate.
One player was particularly deadly in transition and that was Ryan Daly, a 6’4” 225 pound guard who, despite not being particularly quick or athletic, continually got to rim off the break and when he wasn’t going right to the cup he found open threes before UConn matched up. By the end of the game he had 30 points and 3 assists and was a large part of the reason his team won the game. He’ll definitely be the player the Gators are keying in on as he averaging 19.3 points, 9 rebounds, and 6 assists per game.
Saint Joseph’s Offense
There is an extremely green light for pretty much everyone on Saint Joseph’s roster to shoot threes and they are currently second in the country in attempts from behind the arc. Their percentage isn’t particularly stunning, 34.1%, but considering the amount of attempts they take that number is admirable. Many of their three point attempts are generated by Ryan Daly’s ability to get into the paint and distribute and he’ll be an interesting matchup for whoever Coach White decides to put on him. At 6’4” and 225 pounds he’s extremely strong and knows how to use his size, something put on display against UConn where he overpowered the smaller players on the Huskie’s perimeter. He’s not particularly fast but his mix of strength and craftiness make him a handful that no one Saint Joseph’s has faced has been able to match and he’ll present a unique challenge to the Gators.
Daly is a unique player for a unique style of offensive basketball. Saint Joseph’s plays extremely quick but in a different way than you might first think. Usually when you think of a team playing fast you think about them looking to push in transition and score off the break. The Hawks are definitely capable of scoring in transition but when it comes to playing fast they actually do it in the half court which is tough to do and something you don’t often see in college basketball. They don’t run motion offenses that flow freely and they don’t run complex sets but the run multiple quick hitters that involved one pass and a screen and they look to get a get a shot quickly. That means the Gators can’t get comfortable if they stop the Hawks from running in transition because even when they get set up they are looking for a quick screen to get Daly in the paint and then an off ball screen to free up a shooter. They’re a different offensive team than anything Florida has seen in this short season and they’ll have to be ready for the quick hitters Saint Joseph’s will run.
Cameron Browne (36%) and Lorenzo Edwards (41%) are the catch and shooters to be aware of and at 6’5” and 6’7”, respectively, they’re able to shoot over most defenders. Both are really intelligent at moving without the ball to find open looks and if the Gators are lazy and don’t recognize their movement or have to collapse into the paint when a dribble drive occurs they could be hurt from deep.
One interesting note about Saint Joseph’s shooters in that Ryan Daly was 6-12 from three against UConn but in their other three games is 1-16. He’s probably someone you can treat as a non-shooter but against UConn he did prove that he could catch fire.
The Hawks’ Defense
Saint Joseph’s can be an intimidating team offensively due to their ability to score in bunches but they definitely aren’t a juggernaut on defense. They’re currently 230th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency and they are currently in the 20th percentile nationally in points per possession allowed. There are a few personnel issues that negatively affect their defense, one of which being that Ryan Daly isn’t a great defender at the guard spot and they also lack size in the frontcourt. They have wing players with size, something that usually correlates with defensive success, but that isn’t the case with Saint Joseph’s. Watching their games this season they’ve allowed a lot of dribble penetration which has forced them to collapse and give up open catch and shoot jumpers, something that has devastated them. Opponents have shot an absurd 43.8% from three against the Hawks and this could be a game where the Gators get their shooting mojo back. It’s likely that Saint Joseph’s is going to try to pack the paint against Florida considering the way the Gators have shot up until this point so if there was ever a game for the Gators to start hitting shots, this matchup could be it.
The Hawks’ starting center is 6’8”, 230 pound Taylor Funk and he’s backed up by 6’7”, 215 pound Lorenzo Edwards and for that reason the Gators should have a decided advantage in the frontcourt and Saint Joseph’s shouldn’t have anyone capable of matching up with Kerry Blackshear. One of the big reasons they lost to Loyola-Chicago was the fact that they gave up 24 points and 7 assists to the Ramblers’ center Cameron Krutwig and in their loss to Old Dominion they got gashed for 18 points on the inside by Xavier Green. They simply don’t have a ton of size up front and it’s a matchup the Gators will need to exploit.
Matchup Outlook
It’s likely that Saint Joseph’s is going to enter this game with some confidence knowing they comfortably beat the UConn team that took down the Gators. Florida has struggled offensively this season against everyone they have faced, including a few teams that haven’t been good defensively, so even though the Hawks aren’t stout on their own end there can’t be a guarantee the Gators are going to put up points. Florida’s defense also hasn’t looked like the suffocating monster that many of us have expected and Saint Joseph’s has shown they can put up points at will. If the Gators continue to struggle offensively and aren’t able to stop the Saint Joseph’s attack led by Ryan Daly they could take another loss and that’s something they can’t afford right now, especially considering the fact that their next game would be against Miami or a really good Missouri State team and multiple losses in Charleston would be a dark spot on the resume.
If Florida can properly utilize their frontcourt advantage and slow down Ryan Daly on the other end they should be in good shape but in a season where the Gators haven’t shown much cohesion on either side of the floor, anything could happen.