Coming out of the holiday break the Gators have one final test before entering the ever-important SEC portion of their schedule and that’s a home game with the Long Beach State 49ers.
In their 13th season under head coach Dan Monson the 49ers compete in the Big West, a conference of primarily California schools that have offered some sneaky Cinderella teams in the NCAA Tournament throughout history.
Coming off what was a battle and ultimately a disappointing loss to Utah State the Gators will be trying to get some momentum before opening SEC play against Alabama, particularly on the offensive end.
Here is what you can expect from the 49ers.
Season To Date
Playing one of the toughest non-conference schedules in the country the 49ers are used to high-level competition. Unfortunately, for a school like Long Beach State that means a lot of losses as they currently sit at 4-10 but that’s about what you could expect for caliber of programs they were taking on, especially considering most of those games were on the road.
Their gauntlet of a schedule has resulted in losses to some good teams in UCLA, Stanford, Saint Mary’s, Arizona, Wake Forest, Penn, while they have also had some tougher losses to Pacific, Southern Utah, and most recently a 22-point loss to Seattle. It also should be noted that they played UCLA down to the wire and kept things respectable against USC so they’ve shown they can be a bit frisky.
Long Beach State shares one common opponent with the Gators and that’s Providence, a game where the 49ers found a way to squeak out a 66-65 win. Considering the way Florida handled Providence that may not make a single point win by Long Beach State seem that impressive but for a Big West team that’s a great win.
The 49ers won’t be a favorite to finish near the top of their league and this probably isn’t much of a resume opportunity for the Gators but Long Beach State has hung around with a few good teams and Florida hasn’t earned the right to take any team lightly.
Unique Style
Long Beach State is in their 13th season under head coach Dan Monson. Before that he spent multiple years at Minnesota and Gonzaga, so he knows a little bit about the difference in talent between a high major and a Big West school. For that reason, he has developed and recruited to a unique style of basketball that is going to be different than anything Florida has seen so far this season.
For starters, Long Beach State plays fast. 20% of their shots come in transition and if they don’t get an early look off the break they are looking to get a quick ball screen for their guards to get towards the rim. No one does much standing still on offense and it’s all-fast-all-the-time but if you’re not prepared for it the chaos can keep them interesting against more talented teams. Playing that style also makes for a good deal of turnovers and they are 324th in the country in ball security because of it.
Playing fast isn’t just an offensive philosophy for this team dedicated to accelerated the pace of play as they play quick on defense too, trapping ball handlers and shooting passing lanes as they try to make defenses uncomfortable. They play a ton of zone defense to confuse and frustrate opponents and they’ll play a bit of a press too when they feel they can wear down the other team.
Now, playing fast on offense and trapping to create chaos on defense isn’t that out of place in college basketball but what really makes them unique is how they quickly substitute players, making rapid changes to lineups at nearly every possible whistle and sometimes using 3, 4, or even 5 man “hockey” changes. This is a necessity to keep up the pace they want to play at and their frantic substitution patterns are something you don’t often see in modern hoops.
This results in a lot of bench usage and a starting group that only sees one player playing more than 26 minutes a game (Florida has 5 players playing 28 or more minutes per game with 3 of them playing more than 30, and I’m sure Kerry Blackshear Jr. would be playing more than 30 this year if foul trouble wasn’t plaguing him). For that reason the Gators are going to have to be ready for a lot of different lineups and quick-changing personnel that could get them out of rhythm. Keeping up with their tempo shouldn’t be too much of a problem for a Gators team coming off the holiday break but knowing the 49ers will try to make the game as scattered as possible will make for unusual preparation for the players and the coaching staff.
Different Defense
On over 34% of Long Beach State’s defensive possessions they play a zone difference that resembles a typical 2-3 zone but involves particular rotations where it uses 3-2 principals and often uses odd positioning and seemingly random double teams to try to rattle the offense. Frankly, it just looks…different, but when you’re playing teams that are more talented that you playing a peculiar brand of defense they haven’t seen before makes you a tough scout and difficult team for young players to move the ball against.
When the offense has the ball at one of the guard spots the wings often extend high out, leaving the corners vulnerable. If a pass were to go there it would be the responsibility of the big man to sprint out and contest (that’s a 3-2 defensive principal instead of a typical 2-3 rotation) and it definitely makes them susceptible to the corner three. If the ball does get passed to the corner, the opposite guard at the top of the 2-3 zone runs really deep into the paint to clog up the lane, something that looks incredibly odd but is once again a rotation they use just to be different and to surprise teams.
Playing zone also allows them to push their defense full court in a press before falling back into their 2-3 stations. It’s usually a 1-2-2 look and they are going to be aggressive in trying to force some tough passes. They don’t have elite athletes that can really overwhelm ball handlers with their speed and length but they move well as a unit and can smoothly transition from their full court defense to their half court zone.
It’s going to be a difficult defense to prepare for and if the Gators aren’t prepared for the unusual defensive rotations they’ll see it could be a bit of a frustrating contest. To beat the morphing zone of the 49ers the Gators will need to be active away from the ball, looking for weak spots in the defense and shooting into those gaps where they can receive a pass and make a play. Florida can’t be reliant on whoever has the ball to create offense, it’s going to be on the 4 other players on the floor to get into space and be playmakers as soon as they receive a pass.
Player To Watch
Considering how much Long Beach State substitutes they don’t have one single player that seems to run the show but watching them play the player that stands out is 6’6” sophomore Chance Hunter. His length on defense helps create the deflections the team needs to get turnovers and once they get those turnovers he’s great at getting to the rim in transition. He’s also had a fiery start to the season from behind the arc hitting 46% of his threes to start the season. Only taking 3.6 attempts from three per game he isn’t someone who shoots from deep a lot which might suggest he’s not as lethal of a shooter as that number would suggest but by using great shot selection and only taking the wide open ones he’s had a fantastic conversion rate and the Gators will need to be aware of him away from the ball.
Game Outlook
This is a game Florida will be heavily favored in. Long Beach State is currently 268th in the NET rankings and 299th in KenPom so the barring disaster this is a game Florida is going to win. Instead of just looking at this as a home win on Florida’s schedule they have to view it as a chance to get better and a chance to get their offensive rhythm, something that is going to be really difficult against a 49ers team with a mandate to make the game as strange as uncomfortable as possible.
The Gators probably aren’t going to get a chance to run their regular offensive system very much. Even when Long Beach State isn’t playing their zone defense their man is disruptive and they’re not going to let the Gators easily go through the progressions so Florida is going to need to find other ways to score.
Luckily, the Gators have torched zone defenses this year and seeing a lot of zone from Long Beach State, even though it is odd and tough to prepare for, could be just what they need to get some buckets and get some confidence.
While the Gators are at only 0.868 points per possession against man defenses this year they are at an incredible 1.265 against zone defenses so if the 49ers play their normal amount of zone the Gators could have an opportunity to light up the scoreboard.
It’s been a difficult start to Florida’s season but if they continue to get better with each game they can still get to where they want to be at the end of the year and that journey continues with what is hopefully a productive game against Long Beach State.