After a big win over LSU on Wednesday the Gators put themselves in a great position to challenge for the second overall spot in the SEC. At 10-5 they currently sit in third place, and while the chance to catch 13-2 Kentucky in first place is tiny they have a good shot at usurping second place Auburn who is 11-4 as the Gators would hold the tiebreaker should they finish with the same record. To keep up their position at the top of the league their focus is now set on Saturday’s 2 PM ET game against Tennessee, a 7-8 team in league play that has been in a tailspin as of late. After a strong 4-2 start the wheels fell off and difficulties on the offensive end contributed to them going 3-7 in their last 10 games. They’ll be desperate for a win to try to salvage any momentum they can during these late stages of the season and will present a strong challenge for the Gators. Florida is playing perhaps their best basketball of the season and are projected to best Tennessee, even though the game is in Knoxville, which speaks to how predictive metrics have viewed the Gators’ surge as of late. Here are some of the storylines to be aware of looking towards Saturday’s game.
Outside Struggles
After being one of the best shooting teams in the country a year ago the Volunteers have been the exact opposite this season, hitting just barely over 30% of their threes and ranking 305th nationally in efficiency from behind the arc. Freshman Josiah-Jordan James and Santiago Vescovi are too solid shooters at 36%, but those numbers aren’t high enough to really terrify you and after those two there is a serious drop off. The inability to hit open threes with consistency has hamstrung their offense and ultimately that has been the main reason Tennessee finds themselves near the basement of the SEC. Defending the three-point line has been something the Gators have done well this season and they shouldn’t have any trouble keeping Tennessee from going off, especially if they are mindful of James and Vescovi and force other perimeter players to shoot.
Five As One
Tennessee’s offense is currently 107th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric, a ranking that speaks to how much they are struggling. Even though they have lacked productivity on offense they often look capable on that end, especially when it comes to passing the ball and playing as a team. Tennessee is second in the nation in assist rate and most of their baskets come off assists, something that’s fairly opposite from the Gators who rank 303rd in assist rate. Ball movement is a fixture of Tennessee’s attack, especially within the flex offense they have played under head coach Rick Barnes. The flex offense is a continuity offense which utilizes a “flex” cut—a play where a player sets a screen on one side of the key for a player cut across to the other side of the key. When this is done at the same time the ball is passed on the perimeter from one side to another the player who completed the flex cut can find himself open for layup if his defender gets caught on the screen. Even if the layup isn’t there, he’s probably going to have deep post position that can make for a high-percentage layup. This was an offense that worked excellently for Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield last year and while they don’t have the same level of talent it can produce easy points if a defense isn’t ready. Florida will have to be prepared to guard these cross screens and flex cuts because if they don’t, the punishment will be a layup. Knowing Tennessee isn’t great at shooting the ball should allow the Gators to sag bag in the paint and help on these flex cuts and if they take those away the Vols might really struggle to score.
Player To Watch
Santiago Vescovi is a newcomer to SEC, and a fairly newcomer to college basketball on the whole as the freshman had to sit out the first 12 games of the season while his file made its way through the NCAA’s clearing house. From Uruguay, Vescovi was playing at one of the NBA’s global camps when college teams took notice and ultimately he ended up committing to Tennessee. A 6’3” point guard, he has tremendous passing vision and can score enough to be a one-man offense that teams have to be ready to defend. Even though he missed half of the season and he’s in his first year, Vescovi already looks like a seasoned college player except for one area where he has struggled—turnovers. In his 16 college games he has already had a 9 turnover game, a 7 turnover game, a 6 turnover game, and multiple 5 turnover games, and that should be enough evidence that points to him being a loose cannon at times. Vescovi is an excellent passer who has been tasked with creating offense individually for a team that struggles to score and that has made from some mistakes but while he is still looking to learn how to take care of the ball the Gators need to make him uncomfortable and see if they can turn him over. Most of Vescovi’s turnovers are from ill-advised passes and if players like Keyontae Johnson and Scottie Lewis are active in the passing lanes they could find plenty of steals. As much as his turnovers are a major issue, Vescovi is still an electric player at times who can be tough to guard and if he is playing confidentially and not turning the ball over he could be an issue.
Matchup To Watch
Due to Tennessee struggling this isn’t a story that has made its way to the headlines but big man John Fulkerson has had a huge emergence in this, his senior year. Simply a role player and a bit of a banger off the bench for the Volunteers in the past, this year has seen him take on a primary offensive role as someone tasked with scoring inside as well as passing the ball from the high post. Fulkerson could very well be their most important player and for that reason the matchup between him and Kerry Blackshear Jr. could be the most important one on the floor. Something that has the potential to bring on great frustration is the fact that Fulkerson is excellent at drawing fouls in the post with a quick first step and a powerful leap, and it’s nearly a certainty that Rick Barnes is going to try to put Blackshear in a position to pick up early fouls. Blackshear will need to be ready to defend without fouling, but if he plays passively on defense Fulkerson can take advantage and score. While he’s tough and plays bigger than his frame, Fulkerson has only 215 pounds on his 6’9” frame and Blackshear should have a strength advantage that he could hopefully exploit. For Tennessee to win they are going to need multiple things to go right for them and one of those things is Fulkerson being a force. If the Gators can keep him off the scoreboard and keep him from getting Blackshear in foul trouble it will greatly increase their chances of winning.
Matchup Outlook
This is a matchup of a Florida team that’s playing some of their best basketball of the season against a Tennessee team that’s playing some of their worst and even though the game is in Knoxville the Gators have to see blood in the water. Let’s remember too that a year ago when Tennessee beat the Gators in Gainesville they mocked fans with sarcastic Gator chomps and that’s going to be in the minds of the returning players. Florida is looking to better their NCAA Tournament resume and a road win against Tennessee would certainly do that, so there will be no lacking for motivation. There isn’t any matchups that should particularly scare the Gators, and right now they have to feel good about Keyontae Johnson no matter who is guarding him. Tennessee definitely has a capable adversary in Yves Pons who is a rare player with the athleticism to hang with Johnson, but he doesn’t have the same strength. Something the Gators deserve credit for is their improvement on the defensive end, and coming off a game where they slowed down the number two offense in the country in LSU they’ve got to be feeling good about their chance to completely lock down struggling Tennessee. There is lots to be positive about when it comes to Florida’s chance at winning but they haven’t earned the right to take anyone lightly and any team playing in the SEC is quality enough to beat anybody if they play their best basketball. This is huge chance for the Gators to pick up a win and if they play like they did against LSU they’ll have a fantastic opportunity to do so.