As the ninth-seeded Gators prepare to battle eighth-seeded Texas A&M in the second round of the SEC Tournament in Tampa on Thursday, they find themselves in the direst set of circumstances of the Mike White era.
UF is 19-12 overall and 9-9 in conference play, and they’re just 2-8 in what the NCAA refers to as Quadrant 1 games. They sit at just No. 54 in the NCAA Evaluation Tool rankings. That’s a light postseason resume, and that’s reflected in the projected NCAA Tournament brackets of several prominent bracketologists.
CBS’ Jerry Palm has the Gators among the first four teams outside of the field, while ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has them even lower than that as one of the next four teams out.
Florida’s streak of four consecutive tournament appearances is in serious jeopardy. That’s prompted some speculation among fans and media about what the Gators need to do in Tampa to nab an at-large bid. Do they need to win two games? Three games? Heck, do they need to win the whole thing and get the automatic bid at this point?
Whatever the path is, it won’t be easy. On Thursday, they’ll have to beat a Texas A&M team that beat them just a few weeks ago. If they get by the Aggies (20-11, 9-9), they’ll have to take down top-seeded Auburn for the second time this season. If they’re still alive on Saturday, they’ll likely play either LSU or Arkansas, both of whom defeated UF this season.
Crazier things have happened this time of year for sure, but the Gators’ chances of playing in the NCAA Tournament are definitely slim at this point.
So, instead of worrying about all of the scenarios that could play out, the Gators are approaching the SEC Tournament with a singular objective – beat Texas A&M. You can’t get on a roll and win multiple games without winning the first one.
“[The postseason is] up to the committee and the people that do it for a living, not only those guys but Lunardi and all of the other experts in the field,” White said. “They’re going to make cases and have people in and have people out. All we can focus on is Texas A&M.
“You’ve got a bunch of teams in our league that can do some damage in this tournament. A&M is certainly one of them. I think they’re playing better offensively, changing some things up in terms of personnel, roster, rotations. Defensively, they’re very, very good, of course. So, we’ll have to play really well.”
In that first meeting in College Station on Feb. 15, the Gators shot just 22 percent in the first half and trailed by as many as 13 points in the opening 20 minutes. However, UF battled back to take a 55-51 lead with 1:44 to go, only to lose when Phlandrous Fleming fouled Wade Taylor while shooting a three with less than 30 seconds remaining. Taylor sank all three free throws to give the Aggies the 56-55 victory.
The Aggies went 16-for-16 at the free-throw line in that game, while the Gators were only able to convert 20 offensive rebounds into 22 points. UF had every chance to win that game but just didn’t execute well enough offensively.
“The bigger factors, in my opinion, are shooting a better percentage against those guys and finishing at the rim and making an open three and transition defense, floor balance, live-ball turnovers, defending the glass,” White said. “Did a really nice job at College Station on the offensive glass, but we’ve got to convert in the paint. We’ve got to play really well.”
Scoring has continued to be one of the Gators’ biggest deficiencies this season. Outside of Second Team All-SEC center Colin Castleton, who is averaging 17.9 points per game in league play, they don’t have much of an interior presence. Backup center Jason Jitoboh hasn’t played since late January following eye surgery. Forwards Anthony Duruji and CJ Felder have been in and out of the rotation while dealing with injuries.
Even Castleton has had to push through a shoulder injury, and he didn’t do much in practice on Tuesday while dealing with an illness, though White expects him to play.
So, they’ve become heavily reliant on three-point shooting. When they make 24 of their 52 threes over a two-game stretch, as they did against Georgia and Vanderbilt, their offense looks really good. When they only go 3-for-23 like they did against Kentucky in the regular season finale, their offense looks really ugly.
White said that they’ll continue to tweak some things, but, for the most part, they are who they are at this point in the season.
“We’re pretty one-dimensional at times,” he said. “We can be. It’s either Colin or an open three. It is what it is. [Tyree Appleby], a couple of these guards being able to draw some fouls off these ball screens, but we’re not, outside of Colin Castleton, a great two-point scoring basketball team. Certainly, [we’re] working on becoming better, though.”
They’re running out of time to get better. If they’re going to make a run at the NCAA Tournament, it’s now or never.
“Everybody knows how serious it is,” Castleton said. “It’s a tournament. It’s win or go home. So, I’d be lying if I didn’t say everybody feels there’s obviously a little bit more pressure, but you don’t change anything day to day. You do the same stuff, you prepare the same way, but we know what it means if you lose. You’ve got to just win games.”