The Florida Gators (20-6, 7-4 SEC East) aren’t expecting anything that even slightly resembles the Vanderbilt team they blew out by 25 points in Nashville when the Commodores come to town Saturday (3 p.m., Stephen C. O’Connell Center, Raycom TV). Vanderbilt (16-9, 5-6 SEC East) is on a bit of a roll lately and the Commodores are trying to play their way back into contention for a first day bye at the upcoming Southeastern Conference Tournament.
The Florida Gators (20-6, 7-4 SEC East) aren’t expecting anything that even slightly resembles the Vanderbilt team they blew out by 25 points in Nashville when the Commodores come to town Saturday (3 p.m., Stephen C. O’Connell Center, Raycom TV). Vanderbilt (16-9, 5-6 SEC East) is on a bit of a roll lately and the Commodores are trying to play their way back into contention for a first day bye at the upcoming Southeastern Conference Tournament.
Vanderbilt comes to town feeling very confident with four wins in its last five games including a 77-64 win over Kentucky in Nashville Tuesday night. Now, Kentucky was playing without star center Patrick Patterson and that had to affect the way the Wildcats play, but Vanderbilt has been a very consistent team lately which has everything to do with the improved play since the Florida game.
When the Gators hammered Vanderbilt, Chandler Parsons had the game of his life, hitting seven three-pointers to finish with a career high 27 points. Florida hit 15-25 from beyond the arc that game and there was little the Commodores could do to counter, especially with 6-11, 250-pound center A.J. Ogilvy limited because of plantar fasciitis. Ogilvy is reasonably healthy now and he has scored in double figures in the last five Vanderbilt games.
The Gators did a good job of stopping Alabama’s interior game Wednesday night and even though Bama is taller and more physical on the front line, the Crimson Tide does not have the ability to stretch opponents on the perimeter like Vandy. If Brad Tinsley is slowed by his gimpy ankle (sprained twice in the same game against Kentucky Tuesday night), that will be a serious boost to Florida’s perimeter defense and it will force star freshman Jeffery Taylor away from the basket where he is so effective.
The Commodores will probably go with a defensive game plan to take Nick Calathes (18.8 points, 5.4 rebounds, 6.5 assists) out of the game, forcing others to pick up the slack for Florida. Alex Tyus is coming off a 16-point, seven rebound game against Alabama and freshman Erving Walker chipped in with 13. Where the Gators need some production is from Parsons, Walter Hodge and Dan Werner. If the Gators can get 30 or more points from those three, they have a very good chance to control this game. Also look for increased playing time at center for freshman Kenny Kadji and on the wing for freshman Ray Shipman, who might spend some time defending Taylor.
For the Gators, winning at home is essential. If Florida can hold serve on its home court with Vandy and the two remaining home games with Tennessee and Kentucky, that will give the Gators a minimum of 10 SEC wins, 23 in the regular season. Those numbers would make Florida a mortal lock for the NCAA Tournament no matter what happens in the SEC Tournament in Tampa, March 12-15.
Presently, the Gators have a 43 RPI according to the latest Ken Pomroy.
STARTING FROM GROUND ZERO: If Billy Donovan sounded a tad chippy after the win over Alabama, it’s hard to blame him. Fans and media have constantly criticized his team and called his coaching abilities into question in the last two years even though the Gators have won 44 games to date after starting from what amounts to ground zero.
When you lose six players to professional basketball like Donovan did after the 2007 season including four with a year of eligibility remaining, the foundation of the entire program is shaken. This was starting all over again for Donovan and I have no doubt that when he realized he was walking away from this kind of a challenge, that’s the moment he decided he couldn’t coach the Orlando Magic.
The last two years have been very much like years one and two were for Donovan when he arrived in Gainesville. The only difference is he’s got better talent now than he had those first two years. Everybody criticizes when he says he had to teach these guys everything, including how to practice, but think about it for a moment. In the last NCAA championship season Donovan and his staff had their hands full just trying to keep the pressure off a team trying to repeat as national champions. Winning two in a row is such a tough job that it’s only been done a handful of times in history.
Keeping the pressure off meant that Donovan altered the practices, the way he handled the team, etc. to keep the pressure off the veterans and that meant young guys like Marreese Speights, Dan Werner and Jonathan Mitchell didn’t learn the Florida system the same way, for example, that Joakim Noah, Al Horford, Corey Brewer, Taurean Green and Lee Humphrey learned it when they came to Florida. So when Werner, Mitchell and Speights came back for their sophomore years, they were in no way prepared for a step-up in intensity.
Add in five freshmen last year and who were they supposed to learn from? Who were their tutors telling them this is how hard we practice? Who was going to get in their face when they didn’t go hard enough? When the Oh-Fours were freshmen, they had vets like David Lee and Adrian Moss on hand to teach them the way things were done at Florida and what the expectations were. There was no David Lee or Adrian Moss or Chris Richard or Lee Humphrey around to help these guys. There were Walter Hodge, Dan Werner, Marreese Speights and Jon Mitchell.
When you consider there were no leaders, winning 24 games last year is not a bad accomplishment. When you consider Donovan is still trying to build leadership, 20 wins with five regular season games to go isn’t a bad accomplishment either.
There is no way Donovan could have planned for Speights to leave after two years. He was a project when he came to UF and for those who say they could tell right way that he was going to be good, please remember that you recruit for basketball two years ahead because of the early signing period. When Speights was signed there was no way to foresee he would be good enough after only one year of actually playing.
There was no way to plan for Jai Lucas to transfer, either. Lucas started 36 games, knew the offense, didn’t miss free throws and was probably the most vocal and effective leader among the freshmen of 2007. His loss was HUGE.
Throw in Eloy Vargas, thought to be an impact freshman at 6-10, slow to recover from ankle surgery so that he’s just now starting to be effective as a practice player. Add in Adam Allen, whom the staff was counting on to be a much improved player and Lee Humphrey-like shooter, going down for the season with a knee injury. And don’t forget Allan Chaney, whose stress fracture will probably keep him out until the SEC Tournament.
In spite of all those problems, they’re four plays from 24-2. They have plenty of flaws, not enough size, not enough quickness and they’re still trying to learn to play together. Donovan says the next step in their growth is to develop the kind of chemistry it takes to go to the next level. Even with all those things going against them, they’re 20-6 and if they make one play on the defensive end or one big shot on the offensive end in four games, they could be 24-2.
Is this a great Florida basketball team? Hardly. Is it a really good team that is still growing and learning the game? Yep. And, as Donovan says, they’ve given him everything he’s asked and they have exceeded his expectations.
Winning 20 games a year isn’t easy. If it was all that easy then why didn’t Adolph Rupp do it 11 times in a row (which Donovan has)? Rupp won 875 games and most of them in an era when the rest of the SEC was much weaker than it is now but he never had a streak like Donovan has had. Rupp was 47 when he won the first of back-to-back NCAA titles. Donovan was a couple months shy of 42 when he won the second of his back-to-back titles.
For those who wish to say Donovan should have recruited better, you’re partially right. He could have had Alonzo Gee instead of David Huertas. He could have signed Korvotney Barber instead of Jimmie Sutton. He could have gotten Devan Downey if only he had known that Derwin Kitchen couldn’t pass the FCAT (who knew that someone with a 1200 SAT couldn’t pass the FCAT? Hanky panky on the SAT maybe?). There are a whole lot of players that were ready to pull the trigger for Florida but wouldn’t when the Oh-Fours decided to come back one more year.
There was no way to expect the Oh-Fours were going to be that good. SEC coaches I know to this day say that they thought Horford could contribute by his junior year and they were sure Noah would be a project until the day he graduated. Taurean was considered a throw-in just because Billy and Big Sid were old buddies from the Knicks. They caused a recruiting dilemma because Donovan couldn’t see they would be that good before their sophomore years, and when they won that first championship, lots of outstanding players went somewhere else because they knew they couldn’t play as freshmen at Florida.
So what we have now is a foundation that has been rebuilt through solid recruiting. This year’s team is pretty good. Next year’s team with the additions of Vern Macklin, Kenny Boynton (6-2, 180, Plantation, FL American Heritage, #10 ESPNU Top 100), Erik Murphy (6-11, 225, Southborough, MA St. Mark’s School, #23 ESPNU Top 100 and DeShawn Painter (6-9, 220, Chatham, VA Hargrave Military, #38 ESPNU Top 100) will be much, much better.
This is a program that has had be rebuilt from ground zero. Donovan has done a remarkable rebuilding job in just two years.
2010 RECRUITING WATCH LIST: The season will come to an end Saturday night for either Kenny Boynton (6-2, 180, Plantation, FL American Heritage, #10 ESPNU Top 100) or Brandon Knight (6-3, 180, Fort Lauderdale, FL Pine Crest, #5 ESPNU Super 60). Pine Crest has superior size and a better inside game when these two Broward County Rivals square off in the regional finals in class 3A but Boynton has a burning desire to close out his high school career with a state championship. Boynton, who signed with Florida (class of 2009), got a state championship as a sophomore at Pompano Beach Blanche Ely, while Knight, the top guard on Florida’s board for 2010, got one last year … If the Gators somehow start slipping with Knight, they might turn their attention to Canadian Corey Joseph (6-3, 170, Henderson, NV Findlay Prep, #36 ESPNU Super 60), whose brother DeVoe, plays for Tubby Smith at Minnesota. He’s a point guard with shooting guard skills and range. Louisville, Minnesota, Texas, Ohio State and Kansas are also taking a long look at Joseph … Harrison Barnes (6-6, 190, Ames, IA #4 ESPNU Super 60) had a great visit to Duke last week and he met Dick Vitale (or should we say Mr. Duke) but don’t read too much into it. North Carolina and Florida are going to have their say before it’s all said and done, and Kansas is coming on strong.
2011 RECRUITING WATCH LIST: Austin Rivers (6-3, 180, Winter Park, FL #4 ESPNU Terrific 25) continues to dominate play from the point guard position. He scores, he rebounds, he passes. Anything Winter Park needs he does which is why the Wildcats are probably going to get to the state Final Four … Bradley Beal (6-2, 170, St. Louis, MO Chaminade Prep) will be visiting Lawrence on March 1 when Missouri plays Kansas … James McAdoo (6-8, 210, Norfolk, VA Norfolk Christian, #5 ESPNU Terrific 25) had Roy Williams (North Carolina) and Oliver Purnell (Clemson) on hand when he scored 22 points in a loss to Norfolk Collegiate. North Carolina is pressing hard, but McAdoo is enough of an independent thinker that he’ll make his own decisions and right now he’s a definite Florida leaner … Rakeem Christmas (6-9, 210, Philadelphia, PA North Catholic, #7 ESPNU Terrific 25) got his team to the semifinals of the Catholic League Playoffs. It’s a Memphis-Florida battle at this point. Florida was there first and that counts for something with Christmas, but you have to wonder about the influence of William (World Wide Wes) Wesley, who has a good bit of influence over the people that run the Team Final AAU program that Christmas plays for.
GEORGIA COACHING SEARCH: Following Florida’s loss to Georgia last weekend in Athens, University of Georgia president Michael Adams corralled Billy Donovan and spent a good 10 minutes talking about Anthony Grant. There is no question that AG is at the head of the list at Georgia and there is much to make that job very attractive. The campus in Athens is beautiful and Athens is a real college town, which means the sports teams are a really big deal. Athens is an hour from Atlanta, which trails only New York and Los Angeles these days in both quantity and quality of talent produced. While Stegman Coliseum is old and small, they’ve spruced it up inside and the seating is nice, plus there is a state of the art practice facility attached.
Those are the plusses. The minus is he would be coaching in the same division with best friend and mentor Billy Donovan.
My guess is that Anthony Grant will be the new head coach at Virginia. It’s only a matter of two or three weeks before Dave Leitao gets his walking papers. They like Dave in Charlottesville — everybody likes Dave; he’s a great guy — but they’re not convinced he can win on a consistent enough level. The Virginia folks are convinced that Anthony Grant could compete with the big boys of the Atlantic Coast Conference if he left VCU for UVa.
At Virginia, Grant would have an 18,000-seat palace of a building to play in, a first rate academic institution, and he would be two hours from Washington, DC; three hours from Baltimore; and two hours from Tidewater, Virginia; all three big cities brimming with talent.
So who gets the Georgia job?
After Grant, the two names I hear the most associated with the Georgia search are Xavier’s Sean Miller (113-42 in his fifth year) and Dayton’s Brian Gregory (121-63 in his sixth season). I would keep an eye on Miller, who is part of the Rick Pitino coaching tree. Miller was an assistant under Herb Sendek at Miami (OH) and North Carolina State and an assistant to Ralph Willard at Pitt. Both Sendek and Willard were on the Kentucky staff at the same time Billy Donovan was an assistant at UK.
My guess, if the choice had to be made today, is that Miller would get the job.
ALABAMA COACHING SEARCH: Scratch Mike Davis from the Alabama list. Even if he can — and he really can — deliver DeMarcus Cousins (6-10, 260, Mobile, AL LeFlore, #4 ESPNU Top 100) and Eric Bledsoe (6-0, 175, Birmingham, AL Parker) this isn’t going to happen. I talked to someone intimately connected with the Alabama program when the Tide paid a visit to Gainesville to face the Gators and was told that as long as athletic director Mal Moore is in charge and able to draw a breath, Mike Davis will NOT be the head coach at Alabama.
So who are the choices?
Number one on the list is Tubby Smith, who has done a fine job in two years at Minnesota. Would he leave a place after two years? Well, he left Georgia after two years to take the Kentucky job so, yes, there is a precedent here. He could accomplish two things by taking the Alabama job. First off, he would have a legitimate chance to win and win big. At Minnesota, he’s always going to have to recruit teams capable of sneaking up on Michigan State, Ohio State and when it gets its ship righted again, Indiana. At Alabama, he’s got a good enough recruiting base in state and nearby (Nashville, Atlanta and Jackson aren’t all that far away) to put together a team capable of contending for the SEC championship. Mark Gottfried got Bama to the Elite Eight not all that long ago. If Mark Gotfried could do it, think of what Tubby Smith could do. The man can indeed coach. One more reason he might take the Bama job if offered (and they will offer) would be to coach in the same league with Kentucky and to have a chance to make the Wildcats pay for running him off.
Number two on the list is Mike Anderson of Missouri. He grew up in Birmingham and coached UAB for four years so he’s familiar with the turf. He played for Nolan Richardson at Tulsa and was a Richardson assistant during the Arkansas glory years. In three years he’s turned the mess that was Missouri (thanks to Dookie Quin Snyder) and made things respectable again (Mizzou is 22-4 right now). His teams play full court pressure basketball and they score plenty of points, so Coleman Coliseum would be filled. At Alabama he could win the SEC West on a regular basis and compete for the SEC championship because there are enough good athletes with size in the state to always be that good.
The newest and most intriguing name to emerge is Clemson’s Oliver Purnell and whether or not he’s all that interested (not now at least; not with Clemson on the verge of going deep into the NCAA Tournament) remains to be seen, but this is an extraordinary fit. He’s high character, high quality. He can recruit. His teams play hard every night. He wins. At Clemson he will never be anything more than third fiddle in the Atlantic Coast Conference behind North Carolina and Duke, but if Wake Forest maintains its current level and North Carolina State rejoins the living, Clemson would slide even further. At Clemson, Oliver Purnell might win a championship someday. At Alabama, his odds of winning championships increase substantially.
My guess: Tubby debates taking the job and at the last second decides to stay at Minnesota since the folks there have been good to him and have done everything he has asked. Mike Anderson becomes Plan B if Oliver Purnell takes a serious interest in the Bama job. Anderson takes the job if Purnell turns it down and my gut instinct is that Purnell will think about it seriously, then say no. I’m guessing — and some well connected AAU people agree with me on this one — that Anderson will get the job. No matter if it’s by default, he’ll embrace the job and do a fine job of resurrecting the Alabama program.
AROUND THE STATE: Florida State won its 20th game of the season impressively over Miami Wednesday night. The Seminoles are 20-6 and 7-4 in the ACC. Barring a total collapse in their final five games they should make the NCAA Tournament field. Miami dropped to 15-10 and 4-8 in the ACC. Miami has four very winnable ACC games remaining to get to .500 in the ACC and that would probably get the Hurricanes in the NCAA Tournament. A 4-0 record to close out the regular season and one win in the ACC Tournament would definitely get the Hurricanes in.
Look for Miami’s Dwayne Collins (6-8, 240) to test the NBA waters after this season and don’t be shocked if FSU’s Solomon Alabi does the same thing. Collins is averaging 11.3 points and eight rebounds per game, which are solid numbers, but what he does best is play very tough interior defense and he can run the floor. He’s on a guard-dominated team so about the only time he sees the ball is when he goes up and gets it off the rim. Alabi’s numbers (8.0 and 5.6 rebounds) aren’t NBA quality but you can’t teach the kind of size he has — 7-1, 260. The way he’s been blocking shots lately, he could be a top 15 pick on potential and height alone. The big Nigerian needs another year to blossom, but the pressure to take the bucks and run might be too great.
South Florida (8-17, 3-10 Big East) isn’t going anywhere but the Bulls have a keeper in freshman center Gus Gilchrist. Gilchrist committed to Virginia Tech originally, but after the campus massacre, his parents wouldn’t let him go there. He actually went to Maryland last year and took a red-shirt then mysteriously wound up at USF and eligible. How that happened requires too much time and effort to explain but let’s put it in its proper perspective — bizarre.
UCF (16-9, 5-6 Conference USA) won’t make it to the NCAA Tournament without winning the ConUSA Tournament and that isn’t going to happen unless Memphis decides to forfeit. However, four more regular season wins and a win or two in the league tournament could get the Knights into the NIT. That would be quite an accomplishment for Captain Kirk (Speraw). By the way, UCF’s Jermaine Taylor is averaging 25 a game and he’s the real deal.
Jacksonville (14-11, 12-4 Atlantic Sun) is tied for the league lead in the A-Sun with Belmont. The regular season league title might come down to the final game of the season which will be against Belmont in Nashville. Stetson (13-13, 9-8 A-Sun) has won five of its last seven games and the Hatters could be spoilers once they get into the A-Sun Tournament. Garfield Blair (17.0, 8.0 rebounds), who gave the Gators fits, is a candidate for A-Sun Player of the Year.
AROUND THE SEC:
ALABAMA (13-12, 3-8 SEC West; Mississippi State in Tuscaloosa Saturday afternoon): It’s hard to imagine how the season has gone so bad for Alabama until you look at what is going on with the Crimson Tide guards. They are indeed the gang that can’t shoot straight. Senario Hillman is scoring 13.2 points per game but he’s hitting just 25.4 percent on his three-pointers. That sounds bad until you look at Brandon Hollinger, who is hitting 17 percent. Mikhail Torrance is the real sharpshooter of the bunch and he’s hitting only 34 percent … Alabama is going to desperately miss Alonzo Gee next season. Gee is averaging 14.2 points and 7.2 rebounds per game. He has played himself into late first round or early second round consideration for the NBA Draft in June. He’s shown enough versatility that scouts think he will have a long and productive NBA career … Even though his numbers (10.3 points, 7.3 rebounds per game) don’t merit leaving early, JaMychal Green would be drafted among the first 20 players if he were to leave for the NBA after this season. He needs to stay and develop a 12-foot jump shot that he can knock down regularly before he leaves. He’s got good family support so most think he will stay in school at least one or two more years. He’s a good enough talent that whoever is the coach next year at Alabama has a solid low post foundation to build around … 2009 signee Shawn Kemp (6-9, 225, Canton, GA Cherokee County) will need a miracle of Moses parting the Red Sea proportions to qualify next year. Expect him to spend next season toiling for Hargrave.
Remaining Home Games (3): Mississippi State, Arkansas, Auburn
Remaining Road Games (2): Ole Miss, Tennessee
RPI: 117
Postseason Chances: Unless Bama shocks everyone by doing a Georgia 2008 by winning the SEC, no chance at all for the NCAA. NIT hopes took a hit with losses to South Carolina and Florida. It will take five wins to get into the NIT.
ARKANSAS (13-11, 1-10 SEC West; at South Carolina in Columbia Saturday night): The “indefinite” suspension of point guard Courtney Fortson lasted only one game. Fortson missed the game with Kentucky last Saturday but he was back for the loss to LSU Wednesday night, scoring 17 points, grabbing seven rebounds and handing out four assists. Fortson is second in the SEC in assists (6.3) and 11th in scoring (14.7). He’s averaging 5.3 rebounds per game even though he’s nowhere close to the 5-11 he’s listed (more like 5-8). One concern is that Fortson will do something stupid like declare for the NBA Draft. He’s a marvelous talent and super quick but he’s really undisciplined and his size will also be a factor. He needs at least one extra year but don’t be shocked if he decides to bolt … Only five teams in NCAA Division I are younger than the Razorbacks. Arkansas returned just 14 percent of its scoring and 17 percent of its rebounding from last year’s senior-dominated team … Michael Washington leads the SEC in rebounding at 9.6 per game. Washington has nine double-doubles this season … Freshman Rotnei Clarke went 5-6 from the free throw line in games against Kentucky and LSU and that lowered his free throw percentage to 94.6 percent, which would be best in the SEC if he had enough attempts to qualify for the league lead. Clarke, who was in a shooting slump early in the SEC schedule, has hit 14 of his last 34 threes (41.2 percent) … The Razorbacks came in second for Jeremy Adams (6-4, 195, Madison, MS Central), who has come on very strong this season and will sign for 2009 later this spring. Averaging 27 points and 8.0 rebounds per game, Adams narrowed his choices to Texas A&M and Arkansas from an original field that included Kentucky, Notre Dame and Georgetown. Texas A&M was the final choice.
Remaining Home Games (2): Georgia, Ole Miss
Remaining Road Games (3): South Carolina, Alabama, Vanderbilt
RPI: 122
Postseason Chances: It would take winning the SEC Tournament to make the NCAA field. The NIT will take five more wins and that is very doubtful.
AUBURN (17-9, 6-5 SEC West; at LSU in Baton Rouge Saturday night): Suddenly the team that nobody wants to play is Auburn, which was given up for dead not all that long ago. The Tigers have done a good job as of late in forcing the tempo. Auburn doesn’t have great size, but when they can get the game going up and down, they’re more than adequate … Korvotney Barber had 18 rebounds Wednesday night against to dominate Georgia’s front line. Barber is averaging 12.6 points and 9.5 rebounds per game even though he’s under-sized at 6-7, 220 to play center … During Auburn’s four-game winning streak, Tay Waller has become the consistent player that Jeff Lebo needs. He has scored 76 points while hitting 16-36 on three-pointers during the winning streak and just as important, he has turned the ball over only four times … Freshman backup point guard Frankie Sullivan was named SEC Freshman of the Week after scoring 22 points off the bench in wins over Mississippi State and Georgia … Juco transfer Brenden Knox, Auburn’s only big man at 6-10, has shown signs of life coming off the bench recently. He contributed eight points and three rebounds in the win over Mississippi State, his best game of the year … The last time Auburn won four straight games was 2003 when Cliff Ellis was the coach. If the Tigers can somehow upset LSU Saturday night, they would have their first five-game winning streak since 1999.
Remaining Home Games (2): Ole Miss, LSU
Remaining Road Games (3): LSU, Mississippi State, Alabama
RPI: 82
Postseason Chances: This is a hot team that could get in the NCAA field with four wins in the last five regular season games. Three regular season wins and two in the SEC Tournament could probably do it, too. The NIT is an absolute lock at this point.
GEORGIA (10-16, 1-10 SEC East; at Ole Miss in Oxford Saturday night): You would probably stand a better chance of unraveling the mystery of the man on the grassy knoll before you could figure out Georgia. The Bulldogs shoot 14-26 on three-pointers against Florida last Saturday and then they come back 10-29 in a loss to Auburn Wednesday. Terrance Woodbury, who couldn’t miss against the Gators (7-10 from three and 32 points), scored seven against Auburn, hitting 1-5 on his three pointers and 2-10 overall … If there is a bright spot in this dismal season it is freshman point guard Dustin Ware. He still tries to make the spectacular play when the simple one would do just fine, but he’s gotten past the point where he is the human turnover and he’s starting to hit shots, too. In his last two games, he has scored 25 points while dishing out 12 assists. He’s the same point guard that turned the ball over 10 times against South Carolina just a couple of weeks ago … Go figure Albert Jackson. Physically, he is one of the most imposing and gifted players in the SEC at 6-11, 260, yet for all his talent and abilities, he rarely puts it together on the court. After a very good game against Florida when he had nine points and seven rebounds, he had four points and one rebound plus turned the ball over three times against Auburn. This isn’t what they expected when Jackson was one of the nation’s top big man recruits coming out of Oak Hill Academy. He’s averaging 4.5 points and 3.9 rebounds per game, freshman numbers, but not acceptable for a junior with his size … Whoever the new coach is will need to bring in a good shooter from the wing and a backup point guard. Georgia has 11 scholarship players and two seniors. The Bulldogs signed only two in their 2009 class so there is room for two more players. Of course, the new coach might run some dead wood off, too. There’s plenty of that on this team … I keep hearing that Howard Thompkins is being pushed by “advisors” to bolt to the NBA after this season. He’s got decent freshman numbers (12.6 points, 7.0 rebounds) but he hasn’t had anything resembling a dominant performance this year.
Remaining Home Games (2): Vanderbilt, South Carolina
Remaining Road Games (3): Ole Miss, Arkansas, Kentucky
RPI: 198
Postseason Chances: Donkeys will fly first.
KENTUCKY (18-8, 7-4 SEC East; Tennessee in Lexington Saturday afternoon): The good news for Kentucky is that injured Patrick Patterson is expected to give the Wildcats some minutes Saturday against Tennessee. Patterson has missed the last two games after going down with a sprained ankle against Florida. He practiced Thursday afternoon and looked good in the early going but started favoring the ankle heavily in the last half of the session … The last time the Wildcats faced Tennessee, Jodie Meeks scored a Kentucky record 54 points, hitting 10-15 of his three-pointers while breaking Dan Issel’s old record of 53. Meeks has carried the scoring load the last two games for the Wildcats with Patterson out, netting 45 points in the win over Arkansas and 26 in Tuesday night’s loss to Vanderbilt. Meeks is averaging 25.8 points per game and he is hitting 43.8 percent of his three-pointers … With Patterson out, the Wildcats were counting on better production from replacement Josh Harrelson. Harrelson, who scored 11 points in Kentucky’s win over Florida, has scored exactly two in the last two games … Harrelson’s inability to score has shifted even more pressure onto power forward Perry Stevenson, but he hasn’t exactly rung the bell either with a combined nine points and seven rebounds in the last two games. Stevenson scored only three points in Kentucky’s loss to Vanderbilt Tuesday night … Meeks is about as close as a mortal lock as it gets to go early to the NBA. His stock will never be higher than it is right now. Shooters with his size and range are hard to find. His stock is on the rise … Everybody expects Patrick Patterson to at least test the waters. If he chooses to go, he’ll be a top 15-20 pick in the June draft. His parents don’t need the money (Buster makes something around $150,000 a year as the manager of a Wal-Mart Super Center and Tywanna makes a rather hefty salary with the federal government) and it would make sense for Patrick to stay a year and develop.
Remaining Home Games (3): Tennessee, LSU, Georgia
Remaining Road Games (2): South Carolina, Florida
RPI: 33
Postseason Chances: Kentucky travels. That means three wins and the Wildcats are in the NCAA Tournament.
LSU (22-4, 10-1 SEC West; Auburn in Baton Rouge Saturday night): LSU has won seven in a row and is looking like a team that could go fairly deep into the NCAA Tournament … LSU has been almost impossible to beat at home. The Tigers are 17-1 at the Maravich Center … The catalysts for the hot streak have been Marcus Thornton and Tasmin Mitchell, who have taken the team on their backs offensively. Thornton has scored 168 points (24 per game) and helped out on the boards with 47 rebounds during the winning streak. Mitchell, who missed almost all of last season with an injury, has scored 145 points (20.7 per game) and grabbed 69 rebounds (9.9 per game) … The Tigers have won even though starting point guard Bo Spencer has missed the last two games with a sprained ankle. He is questionable for Saturday night’s showdown with red hot Auburn … With Spencer on the bench, the Tigers have moved Garrett Temple over from the wing and he has responded with 13 points and 13 assists in the last two games … Terry Martin, usually the sixth man, has moved into the starting role at the wing with Spencer out … LSU has been extremely encouraged by the play of 6-11 center Chris Johnson in the last two games. He didn’t score in the win over Mississippi State, but he’s come back to score 16 points and pull down 16 rebounds in the last two games … Mitchell is a fourth-year junior and a mortal lock to go to the NBA after this season. The way he’s played the last seven games, he has a chance to move into the top 10 in the June draft … The Tigers have made the final cut for 2010 small forward Tobi Oyedeji (6-7, 200, Houston, TX Bellaire). The other schools on his list are Arizona State, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, and Georgia Tech. He’s averaging 16 points and 12 rebounds per game.
Remaining Home Games (3): Auburn, Florida, Vanderbilt
Remaining Road Games (2): Kentucky, Auburn
RPI: 38
Postseason Chances: This is looking like a team that is going to win 25 games in the regular season. The Tigers need to be trying on their dancing shoes because they are a mortal lock for the NCAA.
MISSISSIPPI STATE (17-9, 7-4 SEC West; at Alabama in Tuscaloosa Saturday afternoon): Apparently Renardo Sidney 6-10, 267, Los Angeles, CA Fairfax, #5 ESPNU Top 100) was going to verbally commit to UCLA earlier in the week but it seems that Sidney’s off-the-court problems and failure to take the SAT (still hasn’t done it) have caused Ben Howland to just say no. If all the UCLA rumors are true, watch for Sidney’s name to resurface with Mississippi State very quickly. Sidney’s family is originally from Mississippi and there has been ongoing dialogue with Rick Stansbury, who desperately needs a big man since there is a good chance shot-blocker deluxe Jarvis Varnado will skip his senior season and head for the NBA. Varnado, who leads the nation in blocked shots for the second straight year, is averaging 4.8 blocked shots per game. He is one of the few true intimidators in the college game this year … Mississippi State’s 4-2 record at home in SEC play (12-4 at home overall) has to be a concern for Stansbury. Auburn has already beaten the Bulldogs and Florida will be coming to Starkville with the kind of team that gives them fits. Mississippi State almost has to hold serve in its remaining two home games if they hope to make it to the NCAA Tournament … The ups and downs of this season have taken their toll on the Mississippi State fans. Humphrey Coliseum isn’t nearly the imposing place that it used to be in part because the fans aren’t turning out. There were less than 7,000 in the stands for the win over South Carolina Wednesday night … In his last six games, freshman point guard Dee Bost has scored 95 points while grabbing 20 rebounds and handing out 23 assists … Ravern Johnson found his shooting eye again Wednesday night against South Carolina. After going 1-15 from three-ball land in his previous three games, the 6-7 sophomore went 4-10 on three-balls and scored 20 points to help put South Carolina away … Mississippi State is hoping to get back into the Eric Bledsoe (6-0, 175, Birmingham, AL Parker) stakes. With Mike Davis out of the picture to replace Mark Gottfried at Alabama, Bledsoe is pretty much fair game for everyone else. He’s one of the few point guards left in the 2009 class that can really push the ball. Dee Bost is really the only point guard that Stansbury has on his roster so he’s desperate to find one more.
Remaining Home Games (2): Auburn, Florida
Remaining Road Games (3): Alabama, Tennessee, Ole Miss
RPI: 85
Postseason Chances: Bulldogs are a mortal lock for the NIT. Four regular season wins would probably get them in the NCAA. If they only win three more regular season games, they will need two wins in the SEC Tournament to get into the NCAA Tournament.
OLE MISS (14-11; 5-6 SEC West; Georgia in Oxford Saturday afternoon): Ole Miss played its best defensive game of the season Wednesday night against Tennessee. The Rebels locked down Tennessee on the perimeter, holding the Vols to 24-57 shooting while holding UT scoreless for five full minutes in the second half … Freshman Murphy Holloway has been good all season long, but now he’s starting to show why he was such a huge pickup for Andy Kennedy. He’s had a double-double in each of his last two games — 13 points and 11 rebounds against LSU and 18 points and 13 rebounds against Tennessee. Holloway is averaging 8.6 points and 6.4 rebounds per game, plus he’s hitting 57 percent of his shots … Another Ole Miss freshman that is looking like the steal of the century is Terrico White. He’s not a point guard but he’s playing there by necessity and getting the job done. He had 21 points, five rebounds and six assists against Tennessee bringing his season averages to 11.6 points, 3.4 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game. In his last six games, White has scored 115 points, pulled down 27 rebounds and handed out 19 assists … Andy Kennedy has to be very pleased with what he’s seeing since Ole Miss is the youngest team in NCAA Division I. Next year when point guard Chris Warren and Eniel Polynice to the starting lineup, the Rebels could be that team that nobody wants to play … Don’t be surprised if David Huertas tests the NBA waters. He’s averaging 19.6 points per game and shouldn’t project more than second round in the NBA Draft. If he wants to play in the NBA he needs to come back. However, there is a large offer from the Spanish League waiting for him when this season is over. Expect him to check out what the NBA says and then make a decision between coming back to hone his game for the NBA or bolting to the Spanish League for a nice six figures salary … Ole Miss signee Reggie Buckner (6-9, 210, Memphis, TN Manassas) is averaging 19 points, 15 rebounds, 7.3 blocks and 4.5 assists per game.
Remaining Home Games (3): Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi State
Remaining Road Games (2): Auburn, Arkansas
RPI: 89
Postseason Chances: Three more wins and the Rebels are in the NIT, which would be a major accomplishment. Four wins in the regular season and the SEC semifinals gets them in the NCAA.
SOUTH CAROLINA (18-6, 7-4 SEC East; Arkansas in Columbia Saturday night): The Gamecocks have had their way with opponents at the Colonial Life Center. They are 14-1 overall at home this season and 5-0 in SEC play. Florida and LSU are the only other teams in the league unbeaten at home. The Gamecocks have won six of their last eight games and with Arkansas and Kentucky at home in their next two, they could take a major step toward the NCAA Tournament … If you’re looking for a reason why the Gamecocks have gone from also-rans in the league last year to contenders this year, look no further than the development of Sam Muldrow in the middle. The 6-9, 240-pound center has allowed Mike Holmes to move to power forward and Dominique Archie to his natural position of small forward. That gives the Gamecocks a very good front line that can compete with anyone in the SEC. Holmes is averaging 7.8 rebounds per game and he’s playing at a very high level … An unsung hero for the Gamecocks this season has been 6-8 Austin Steed, who averages four rebounds per game off the bench. His ability to spell Muldrow and Holmes has been critical for keeping Archie at small forward where he is far less likely to run into foul trouble … Devan Downey is making a real case to be the SEC Player of the Year. He’s averaging 19.8 points per game and leading the SEC with three steals per game, but check out the numbers for the last two games. He has scored a combined 37 points, grabbed 12 rebounds, handed out nine assists and picked up eight steals … The Gamecocks need guard Zam Fredrick to regain the confidence in his shot again. He has taken only 17 shots total in the last two games and he has scored only 20 points.
Remaining Home Games (3): Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee
Remaining Road Games (2): Vanderbilt, Georgia
RPI: 52
Postseason Chances: Four wins in the last five and it won’t matter what the Gamecocks do in the SEC Tournament. If they win three regular season games, they will have to win at least one in Tampa.
TENNESSEE (16-9, 7-4 SEC East; at Kentucky in Lexington Saturday afternoon): In the 10 SEC games since Kentucky’s Jodie Meeks hit 10-15 of his three-pointers while lighting the Vols up for 54 points, Tennessee has locked down the perimeter. Opponents are hitting only 27 percent over that stretch and they are averaging only 5.4 made threes per game. The Vols get a second shot at Meeks Saturday and this is a must win situation. The Vols are probably going with a defense by committee approach to Meeks this time around. Watch for Bruce Pearl to alternate Tyler Smith, Cameron Tatum, J.P. Prince, Scotty Hopson and Josh Tab on Meeks to try to wear him down … Expect Tyler Smith to announce he’s off to the NBA as soon as the season is over. He’s a 22-year-old junior who will be 23 in September. He really can’t afford to stick around another year. Age alone will cause his draft stock to fall like a rock if he stays beyond this season … Another who is likely to bolt is center Wayne Chism. He still likes to go out on the perimeter and shoot jumpers more than the scouts would like to see, but he is 6-9 and 250. He’s averaging 13.2 points and 8.9 rebounds per game … With two more road games (South Carolina and Florida) on the agenda and nine losses overall, the Vols are treading in dangerous waters. Even though they have Final Four talent, they are teetering on the verge of becoming an NIT team. Why the problems? Look no further than point guard Bobby Maze, who has combined for four points and three assists in his last two games. He doesn’t make anyone a better player when he’s on the floor … Heading into the season there was a lot of talk that freshman Scotty Hopson would be a one-and-done but after looking like he was ready to take his game to the next level after a breakout 20-point game against Florida, he’s slid back into the tentative, shy to shoot Hopson that has the Vols scratching their heads. He’s scored a combined 11 points in the last two games … Depending on a transfer (entirely possible) or someone going to the NBA early (more possible) Tennessee might land Skylar McBee (6-2, 175, Rutledge, TN Grainger County) in the spring. McBee, who played AAU ball with Tennessee’s Scotty Hopson last year (Mid-State Ballerz), didn’t sign in the fall even though he had a lot of mid-majors clamoring for him, choosing to wait and see what shakes out in the spring. Meanwhile, he’s shooting lights out and averaging 27 points per game, and that has Wake Forest very interested as well as the Vols.
Remaining Games (2): Mississippi State, Alabama
Remaining Road Games (3): Kentucky, Florida, South Carolina
RPI: 35
Postseason Chances: Any combination of four regular season and tournament wins should get the Vols in the NCAA Tournament.
VANDERBILT (16-9, 5-6 SEC East; at Florida in Gainesville Saturday afternoon): Vanderbilt comes into Gainesville one of the hotter teams in the Southeastern Conference. Since losing big to the Gators (94-65) in Nashville and then dropping a game on the road to South Carolina, the Commodores have righted the listing ship and they’ve won four of their last five games. A.J. Ogilvy was extremely limited in the Florida and South Carolina games by plantar fasciitis but he’s managed to play through the pain since then. In the last five games, he has scored 77 points and grabbed 39 rebounds. He had 15 points and eight rebounds in the win over Kentucky Tuesday night … Right now, most experts Ogilvy (6-11, 250) will go ahead and leave for the NBA after this season. Even with the plantar fasciitis this season his numbers haven’t dropped substantially since last year (14.7 points and 7.0 rebounds this year). It’s not a great year for big men in the NBA Draft so he would stand a very good chance of going high in the draft … Point guard Jermaine Beale was at his best against Kentucky, scoring 17 points and hitting all 10 of his free throws … Vandy’s freshman sharpshooter Brad Tinsley sprained his ankle twice in the win over Kentucky. He practiced Thursday but he’s plenty gimpy … Only six teams in NCAA Division I are younger than the Commodores … One big man on the 2010 radar for the Commodores is Evan Smotrycz (6-9, 200, New Hampton, NH New Hampton School). He’s a power forward with nice ball handling and passing skills … The Commodores had hoped the Australian connection with A.J. Ogilvy would help them with Angus Brandt (6-10, 225, Lake Forest, IL Lake Forest Academy) but he chose Oregon State earlier in the week … Vandy’s only signee for 2009 has been lighting it up. John Jenkins (6-4, 190, Gallatin, TN Station Camp, #30 ESPNU Top 100) is averaging 42.6 points per game. Last week he scored 60 in a losing game. He’s also had a 57-point game this year.
Remaining Home Games (2): South Carolina, Arkansas
Remaining Road Games (3): Tennessee, Georgia, Florida, LSU
RPI: 87
Postseason Chances: A lock for the NIT. It will take a combination of five wins in the regular season and SEC Tournament to have a shot at the NCAA field.