Wednesday saw the Gators play with a lackadaisical demeanor, one that ended up getting them beat by a South Carolina team still finding their footing after multiple COVID bouts.
Unfortunately, things aren’t going to get much easier for Florida as they now have to prepare for a tough game against the LSU Tigers.
This will be the second meeting of the two teams this season and whenever you play a conference opponent twice the second meeting is usually the more difficult of the two. Both teams have already gotten to see what they like to do against the other and what they don’t want to do, and the second time around you get to really see what coaching adjustments each staff is capable of making.
Will Wade, still heading up the LSU program after being caught in the FBI probe, is unmistakably a fantastic basketball coach, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. Yes, he (allegedly) does plenty of unsavory things off the court that make him difficult to like and could ultimately be the demise of his career in his chosen profession, but on the court he is one of the best schematic coaches in the SEC. That means that the Gators are going to be in for not only a physical battle from LSU’s imposing athletes, but a mental challenge against one of the best tacticians in the modern game.
Florida came out on top in the first meeting of the season with a tremendous all-around effort that equalled a 83-79 win. It was one of the first outstanding Colin Castleton efforts as he finished with 21 points and 6 rebounds, and they also got great efforts from Tre Mann (19 points), Scottie Lewis (17 points) and arguably the best game of the season from Anthony Duruji (16 points). The Gators actually held a more comfortable lead than the final score would suggest for much of the second half but an inspired comeback by LSU made it significantly tighter.
Things have changed a lot since then as Anthony Duruji and Scottie Lewis, both leaders in game one of the series, are now coming off the bench and playing significantly less minutes. Duruji’s inconsistency on the offense side has taken him from starter to bench piece, and Lewis’ inconsistency on the defensive side coming off an unfortunate two weeks off due to health and safety protocols saw him used only as a rotation piece against South Carolina. Additionally, his 13 minutes in that game went poorly as he was a -9.
Instead of Duruji and Lewis in the starting lineup the Gators have gone to a two big front with Omar Payne starting next to Colin Castleton and they have had great success with it. Considering the success Castleton had in the first meeting of the season by overwhelming LSU with his length, Payne at the four should offer some great looks. The Tigers have a physical front line of Trendon Watford, Darius Days, and Josh LeBlanc, but those three are all shorter, stouter athletes who aren’t tall. Watford is the talent at 6’9” with Days and LeBlanc coming in at 6’7” and that means Castleton and Payne will have distinct height advantages. Castleton was able to finish over the top of these three in the first meeting and if he can do that again while Payne also offers some vertical spacing the Gators could be in good shape on the perimeter.
One thing the Gators would love to clean up from the first meeting of the season is their handling of freshman star Cam Thomas. He torched the Gators for 28 points, illuminating a problem the Gators have defensively. Simply put, they have huge issues guarding great slashing scorers one on one. It started with Cam Thomas before the Gators played Vanderbilt and then got gashed by Scotty Pippen. Then, against South Carolina, AJ Lawson got to the rim at will.
This starts with the Gators lacking an elite perimeter defender to take tough matchups. Lots of people have expected Scottie Lewis to be that kind of player, but so far in his career he has never been able to leverage his athleticism and length into functional, elite defense. Who the Gators choose to check Thomas will be interesting, because Javonte Smart also gave Florida fits as they tried to keep him out of the paint. Thomas and Smart are two outstanding perimeter scorers and the Gators just don’t have two elite perimeter defenders to match up with them. If there is a roadmap to the Gators losing, it probably starts with an inability to guard those two.
Of course, Trendon Watford is another player that could give Florida problems. Despite being 6’9” and 245 pounds and more than capable of bruising teams on the inside he’s a tremendous ball handler and he is a huge matchup problem with opposing centers trying to guard him in space. Will Wade will go to this mismatch as much as possible as he tries to find advantages on the floor. Castleton and Payne are certainly going to be put in positions to guard out in space and they will have to handle themselves in these isolated scenarios.
LSU has been one of the most potent offenses in the country this season and the Gators have been a rather pedestrian defensive team. In the first matchup of the season Florida was adequate defensively, enough so that their offense could shine through and win the day.
Fortunately for the Gators, LSU is one of the worst high major defensive teams in the country and are vulnerable to be scored on. Despite having talented perimeter scorers, those same players struggle to guard on the other end. The Tigers have hemorrhaged straight line drives all season and when players get into the paint they don’t have tremendous rim protecting options due to their shorter, stockier frontcourt players.
For Florida to win this game they will likely have to outscore LSU in a shootout. Sure, you’d love to see the Gators’ defense step up and handle the LSU attack, but the sample size of Florida struggling to defend is starting to mount up this season and reasonable expectations might only be that the Gators could hold the Tigers to an average offensive outing.
Luckily, Mike White’s teams have been putting up points on Will Wade’s teams for a couple seasons now. It might come as a shock to some but the Gators are an offense first team this season and have been a top-25 offensive efficiency team for most of the season.
The Gators got LSU scrambling defensively in the first meeting of the season by using their Princeton offense that forced the Tigers to make reads away from the ball. Forcing a bad defensive team to make multiple defensive reads is a good way to make them flinch and ultimately break down and that was the case in meeting one and it could be a great game plan for the Gators in meeting two.
Florida also had success pushing the ball in transition. When they ran out the Tigers had difficulties matching up and communicating responsibilities and that allowed Florida to get some open looks. That was a few weeks ago, and now Florida’s transition attack is looking even better with Colin Castleton getting open rim runs and Noah Locke finding a number of wide open corner threes when he runs wide. There are transition buckets to be had against LSU and the Gators would be wise to capitalize.
Perhaps the biggest key to the game will be focus. Florida lacked this attribute against South Carolina and got beat, and they were rich in this attribute when they beat West Virginia. Right now the Gators aren’t good enough to lose focus for stretches and still beat good teams and if they have a lapse against LSU, even for a few minutes, it could be enough for them to fall in a hole too deep to climb out of.
Florida needs a good win to offset the poor South Carolina loss, and with Tennessee coming up next the Gators don’t want to see themselves in a situation where they could go on a losing streak. This is unquestionably a big game.