Florida’s Concerns Mounting With Loss To TCU

Florida’s non-conference portion of the schedule is not off to a good start.

Losing to Arizona was not a bad showing, and the Wildcats have supported that by going on to look like one of the strongest teams in the country. The Gators were then able to take care of business against in-state foes in Florida State and Miami, though the one-possession game against the Seminoles, a team that isn’t projected to make the NCAA Tournament, did not help them in the metrics. Their next opportunity to get a quality win and show that they are getting back on track came against TCU in a neutral site setting in San Diego, a game with heightened importance given that the Horned Frogs would not present a quad-1 opportunity, with some chance it would be a quad-3–and the Gators would need to win this game to have a shot to play Wisconsin in a real resume-building opportunity. This is, of course, a TCU team whose best win to this point had come against Lamar, a team currently 207th in KenPom, by 13 points. They also are a team who opened the season by losing to New Orleans, a team coming off a 4-27 season.

(In fairness to TCU they did lose to Michigan by just 4–and the Wolverines look like one of the best teams in the country).

Florida was a clear favorite, though you wouldn’t have known it with how the game unfolded as the Horned Frogs, despite being one of the shortest teams in the country, were imposing their will physically and playing the Gators strongly on the glass. They were extremely difficult to play against due to their defensive pressure, and Florida struggled to match that level of defense on the other end. The Gators ended up losing, and will now likely play another fringe quad-3 game against Providence–making this an entirely unsuccessful multi-team event no matter what happens against the Friars.

It wasn’t just the fact that the Gators lost this game that brought disappointment, but the way in which it happened which is starting to make the whispers of what is going wrong turn into screams. Once again the Gators struggled to make threes going 8-29 (28%), some of which came from tough looks from stagnant possessions, though others came from open looks that continue to deflate the roster as the shots don’t come close to finishing. Xaivian Lee, a guard that Florida handpicked with their attractive role as starting point guard with a hefty NIL offer, was kept to 16 minutes and 1-6 from the field–partially due to his continued struggles to make anything happen on the offensive side, and partially due to a poor defensive performance that likely hasn’t gotten as much attention as it should due to the fact his issues on the other end seem to be screaming even louder.

Florida had 19 turnovers, with not one or two players but nearly everyone responsible–from four starters having at least 3 turnovers, to an offensive system from the coaching staff that doesn’t seem to be putting players into advantageous positions or leveraging the talent they have to create open looks or scoring opportunities.

Defensively, the Gators struggled to slow down a TCU team that was outside the top-100 in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric–though they were able to jump to, wait for it, 94th after picking apart the Gators. Finishing 203rd in this metric nationally last season TCU is not at all known for their offensive execution though you wouldn’t know it with how they were picking apart the Gators, especially with the 12 assists that came from Brock Harding who, for one game, looked like the best point guard in the country. 26 team fouls with both Boogie Fland and Xaivian Lee fouling out also spoke to how much the Gators were playing a step behind on defense resulting in infractions needing to be committed.

Where does this leave the Gators? They certainly aren’t a disaster, and are far from it–though the TCU loss isn’t a stellar one, it is far from catastrophic. It means they will miss out on a chance at another quality game and a chance to prove they are better than what they have shown so far–though a loss to Providence would probably lead to the pressure starting to increase. Florida is about to enter their toughest stretch of the season with games against Duke and UConn who are both looking like Final Four contenders, and if Florida can’t beat TCU and Providence–well, the Blue Devils and Huskies will look like Goliaths. This is where Florida needs to start to turn things around if they want to show they can be a force in March, and on a quick turnaround we are really going to see what the team is made of.