Think about some of the biggest shots you have ever seen in March.
The buzzer beaters, the crowd silencers, the shots to go on a run that electrifies the crowd. If you need a bit of help remembering, maybe a video will help.
When you look at a lot of the most memorable shots in March Madness history, or heck, college basketball history on the whole–there is a familiarity between a lot of them. They are a particular shot:
A shot off the dribble.
Think about it–whether it be Randolph Childress’ ankle breaker, or Kemba Walker electrifying the garden, or as recently as last year, Kansas State’s Marquis Nowell going crazy at the end of just about every game–a lot of these shots are off the dribble. If you want to zoom even further out, look at the NBA game and see how many memorable shots from Michael Jordan, Lebron James, Kobe Bryant, and Steph Curry came off the bounce.
There are a number of reasons for this. For starters, if it’s the end of a close game defenders are going to give maximum effort (something that doesn’t really happen the whole game) and when that happens getting into the paint is more difficult than at any other point. Defenders away from the ball are also working at max capacity, meaning running offense becomes difficult and things often turn into an isolation game. Officiating plays a role, too. No referee wants to blow their whistle on a ticky-tack hand checking foul, so it becomes even more difficult for a drive to occur that could finish at the rim. Whatever mix of reasons why–you don’t see many big shots at the end of games in March happening at the rim, and you seldom see the kind of easy catch and shoot opportunities that happen at other points in the game.
Shooting off the dribble is a marquee skill in March, and when you look at teams that have had success in the postseason recently you almost always see guards with this ability.
Enter the Florida Gators’ backcourt of Zyon Pullin and Walter Clayton, two guards who grade out very well in the shooting off the dribble department.
Pullin made a career out of operating in the mid-range at UC Riverside, and at Florida he has worked to stretch things out to beyond the three-point line. With an electric first step, Walter Clayton loves to leave his defender in the dust before stopping on dime and pulling up for a smooth jumper. The eye test shows that both of these guys thrive shooting off the dribble, but what do the numbers say?
With Pullin, things are miraculous. Currently he is shooting 44% off the dribble from two (30-68) and a remarkable 46% from three off the dribble (16-35), and both of those numbers as well as his 1.1 points per possession on off the dribble jumpers make him one of the best shooters off the bounce in the country. Across the country shooters generally shoot threes much better off the catch than off the bounce, and at 46% Pullin is one of the most lethal deep pull up threats going. In fact, with percentages like that–you have to wonder if he should be taking even more threes off the dribble. It makes sense why Pullin is so talented in this area as he is incredibly strong which allows him to maintain his balance even off the move and after dribbling, and it’s the balance piece of things that usually makes things difficult for players shooting off the bounce. Also at 6’4” he’s almost always elevating above his defender giving him clean looks at the rim even with someone in his area.
When it comes to Walter Clayton, he’s shooting 60% off the dribble from two (16-30), and 28% off the dribble from three (16-58). At 1.0 points per possession off the dribble overall, he’s also one of the best in the nation.
A lot of Clayton’s success off the dribble in the midrange comes from just how much space he is able to create with his footwork and electric first step. While most midrange jumpers off the bounce are tightly guarded when you look at Clayton’s attempts they’re almost wide open just because of how much room he’s able to get. His three-point numbers aren’t so stellar, but 28% off the dribble from three is actually around the national average, and the fact that he’s taken 58 of them means at least he’s going to have some comfort taking them if needed.
The fact that Pullin and Clayton are particularly hot from different areas of the floor is going to be big when it comes to the SEC and NCAA Tournament. With Pullin hot from three and Clayton deadly from midrange there are two areas the Gators could get isolation scoring from late in a clock and in postseason games that will predictably be close–this is huge.
Knowing that shotmaking from guards is so important in March, the Gators could be built for success with not one, but two guards who excel in this area. When looking for differentiators between similar teams to see who could go further it could very well come down to who has the dudes who can get things done in crunch time, and the Gators have to be confident in this area knowing they have two guards that are built for March.
Thank you Eric! Great stuff as always.