Following one of the biggest wins in recent history against #2 Auburn at home the Gators will try to keep their momentum going on Tuesday as they take on the Arkansas Razorbacks.
Florida (17-10, 7-7 SEC) is currently in a dogfight trying to finish in the top third of the league and they’ll be playing an Arkansas team that currently has a bit better of an outlook (21-6, 10-4 SEC).
Let’s talk SEC standings for second.
As is the case in a lot of years there is an absolute logjam in the second tier of the SEC. Here is how the standings currently look:
Auburn 12-2
Kentucky 11-3
Tennessee 10-4
Arkansas 10-4
LSU 7-7
Alabama 7-7
Florida 7-7
South Carolina 7-7
Mississippi State 6-7
Vanderbilt 6-8
Texas A&M 5-9
Missouri 5-9
Ole Miss 4-10
Georgia 1-13
As you can see, this is a huge game for both the Razorbacks and Gators. Right now with four games left, Arkansas is feeling like they could easily finish as the second team in the SEC with a half decent shot at winning the league. Arkansas already beat Auburn and would have the tiebreaker if necessary so you know they’re entering the final weeks of the season with utmost confidence.
For Florida it’s all about the fifth spot in the league, a spot that realistically six teams are currently fighting for. It’s also reasonable that if things go sideways the Gators could finish as low as tenth, a number that would be far from satisfying in the eyes of the program and fans.
More than SEC seeding, both the Gators and Razorbacks are playing for the NCAA Tournament but in different ways. Only a few weeks ago the Gators and Razorbacks were neck and neck as teams that were firmly on the bubble. Since then, the Gators took some tough losses, falling solidly off the right side of the bubble before taking down Auburn. Arkansas, on the other hand, rattled off a ton of wins in a row and put themselves comfortably in the NCAA Tournament field. It wasn’t long ago that Arkansas was right with the Gators in the low forties of the NET rankings, but knocking down win after win they’re now 23rd, no longer playing to solidify their position on the right side of the bubble but now looking at how high a seed they might be able to get.
Unfortunately for Florida, the home win over Auburn didn’t move the needle as much as you may have thought. The Gators only improved from 53rd to 47th in the NET, a nice jump, but far from one that has them undoubtedly in the NCAA Tournament picture. Some media was suggesting the win took the Gators from well on the outside of the tournament to safely in, but realistically it was more like them getting from way off the bubble to the wrong side to back on the bubble. Whether it’s SEC Tournament seeding or NCAA Tournament chances the Gators won’t be lacking motivation.
Standing in their way of another win is an Arkansas team that has been one of the hottest teams in basketball as of late. They’ve won 11 of their last 12, with their sole loss coming by a single point against Alabama on the road. Confidence is oozing through everything they do and it has resulted in some huge wins as of late over Auburn, Tennessee, and LSU.
Arkansas’ biggest strength has been on the defensive end where they currently sit 12th nationally and 1st in the SEC in terms of KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric. They’re an aggressive, high pressure defense that is uncomfortable to play against and teams without enough capable ball handlers have struggled against the frantic pace the Razorbacks push defensively.
Coach Eric Musselman has generally been a man to man coach who will also sprinkle in a high, spread out 2-3 zone but this year it has been essentially 100% man to man, relying on his athlete’s length and speed to contain the ball and stymie the opponent’s offense.
What they have done more is press full court, something that has allowed them to frustrate opponents even more and make the Razorbacks even more of an annoyance to play against. JD Notae, Davonte Davis, Au’Diese Toney, Stanley Umude, and Trey Wade are all speedy, athletic wings that play the 1-4 positions and bring the heat on the press and when they’re on they can bring the team all kinds of energy and extra possessions with press. For a Florida team that has struggled with turnovers, this style of defense is certainly a concern. The Gators have struggled in the few times they have been pressed this season, particularly when Tyree Appleby was on the bench, and they’ll need to come into Tuesday’s game with a clear press break strategy that can relieve pressure and get them into half court offense as soon as possible.
Offensively things haven’t been quite as successful for Arkansas and they have mostly relied on their defense to keep scores low as they aren’t a lethal offensive team. However, even though they aren’t super potent as a team they definitely have an elite scorer leading the way in JD Notae who leads the team with 18.5 points and 3.4 assists per game. Notae is a veteran guard with all kinds of savvy and he seems to live in the paint, able to get by his defender whenever he wants. This is the exact kind of matchup that has given the Gators issues all year, though it’s worth noting they were able to really slow down Auburn’s guards for much of the game on Saturday. Perhaps they’ll be able to implement the same game plan to slow down Notae, and that would go a huge way in stifling an offense that isn’t particularly efficient but one that runs hot and cold. There is major spurtability to the high pace, transition-heavy offensive game plan and while they can go cold, their droughts can be followed by some huge runs.
If there is one matchup that could be in Florida’s favor it’s the fact that Arkansas is fairly undersized. Their power forward spot is played mostly by 6’6” Trey Wade and 6’6” Stanley Umude, neither of which are monsters down low. They do have a center with a nice frame in Jaylin Williams at 6’10” but behind him it’s 6’7” Kamani Johnson. They have been able to rebound the ball effectively due to their activity and desire on the glass but there will be plenty of times where Colin Castleton, CJ Felder, and Anthony Duruji have quality matchups on the inside that they can finish over.
Florida just played a very good defensive game at home against Auburn, giving hope that they are a better defending team than they have been for much of the season. If that’s close to the truth, the biggest key to this game will be the offensive side of the basketball where the Gators have struggled with for much of the season, especially now. Luckily their defense was good enough to keep the Auburn game close enough for Tyree Appleby to take over at the end but they’ll need to find a way to be more consistently effective if they want to reach their goals of a top five finish in the SEC and not just an NCAA Tournament berth, but a favorable seed.
This game takes place Tuesday, February 22nd at 7 PM ET and will be televised on ESPN 2.