Florida avoided disaster with a frantic rally to not only come back against Ole Miss but come away with a win and they’ll look to build off the excitement of the ending on the road Saturday when they play the Ben Howland-led Mississippi State Bulldogs. With the Gators sitting at 3-2 in the SEC the Bulldogs offer them a chance to get ahead in the win column, something that’s particularly helpful considering Florida will next play a mighty Tennessee squad. Coming off two embarrassing losses to Alabama and Kentucky the win against Ole Miss was what Florida needed to start to get their mojo back but the Bulldogs will be a test of where the team is really at.
Mississippi State is in a bit of a rebuild after losing Reggie Perry and Robert Woodard to the NBA Draft this past offseason. They were a solid team that was headed to the NCAA Tournament if it were to have happened but they weren’t equipped to lose two future pros. Coach Ben Howland hasn’t been recruiting at an awfully high level in Starkville and has preferred staying old and experienced, so they weren’t able to instantly fill the voids left by Perry and Woodard.
That means that this year’s iteration of the Bulldogs is on the younger side. They have three sophomores that play big minutes in the frontcourt in Tolu Smith, Javian Davis, and Quinten Post, and their backcourt is dominated by two sophomores in Iverson Molinar and DJ Stewart. These are all talented players who can already contribute in the SEC, but they’re also young and haven’t yet reached their potential.
They do have one upperclassman you’re certainly going to remember and that’s 6’11”, 250 pound Abdul Ado. A four-year starter at Mississippi State he is as experienced a college basketball player as you’re going to see and he has plenty of experience going against the Gators and for the most part giving them problems. A big bodied center who knows how to be physical he has feasted on Florida’s smaller big men over the years and has wreaked havoc with his offensive rebounding and shot blocking. In what could very well be his last game ever against Florida he’ll be looking to leave an impact once more.
Their other senior is a graduate transfer wing named Jalen Johnson who has had quite the journey in his basketball career starting at Saint Louis before spending a season at Louisiana before ultimately landing at Mississippi State. He’s a 6’6” wing who fits the tough, physical mold that Ben Howland likes to recruit and offers some streaky shooting that can occasionally give the Bulldogs a major lift.
Where Mississippi State’s youth really shows is on the defensive end where they have been dismal, currently ranking 112th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Defending at a high level becomes tough with young players who are still learning the college game and adjusting to the necessary rotations required and for the Bulldogs they’re definitely going through some growing pains. They’re fundamentally a man to man defensive team who doesn’t mix in any zone or junk defenses. Their defense is predicated on responsible individual defense with help defenders flowing to the strong side of the floor and trying to take away driving lanes. While schematically their defense is fine, they just don’t have good enough defenders to slow down quality defenders. They often break down and get scrambled resulting in a lot of open threes allowed and to this point they are 277th in the country in three-point percentage defense. Given the fact that Florida is currently 25th in the country in three-point percentage at 39%, there is a chance they’re able to really punish Mississippi State defensively.
One of the reasons Mississippi State can get so scrambled defensively and give up so many drive and kicks is because Ben Howland is an old school coach who loves to have two big men on the floor at a time. Tolu Smith (6’10”, 245 pounds) and Javian Davis (6’9”, 240 pounds) split the minutes at the power forward position, even though on most teams in the country they’d be playing exclusively center. Abdul Ado (6’11”, 250 pounds) and Quinten Post (7’0”, 240 pounds) share the role at center, so Mississippi State is always going to have a lot of beef on the floor. That size can help them when it comes to interior defense where they are one of the best teams in the country in blocking shots but it hurts them when their bigs have to go out in space and guard, sometimes having to switch onto smaller players. Two centers on the floor at once means two vulnerable players for opposing teams to attack on the perimeter and it’s a soft spot that the Gators should look to expose.
Where Mississippi State’s size does help them out is in the offensive rebounding department where they are 8th in the country at grabbing their own misses. The Bulldogs are relentless in their pursuit of offensive rebounds and their constant pressure on the offensive glass means that one of their missed shots from the perimeter can always turn into a quality look with a putback.
Of course, there hasn’t been a ton of missed shots from the perimeter as Mississippi State has shot the ball tremendously, currently 26th in the country in three-point percentage (right behind the Gators). They’re led in this category by their starter backcourt of Iverson Molinar who is shooting a blistering 53% from three and DJ Stewart who is looking great at 40%. Not only are both great shooters but they also have great size at 6’3” and 6’6”, respectively, to get shots off over smaller backcourt defenders.
Mississippi State is also a team that gets the most out of their shooters and runs lots of actions to free them up for looks. 10% of Mississippi State’s total shots come from players coming off screens, and the Gators will have to be prepared for that from a scouting standpoint. If they’re not prepared for the Bulldog’s screening actions they could be vulnerable to allowing wide open threes, the last thing any defense in the country wants to give up.
For Florida this game is a mix of some things they should totally be able to be prepared for as well as some elements they can’t be ready for. When it comes to Mississippi State’s man defense and off the ball plays for shooters, the Gators should have plenty of film and know how they want to play against those actions. Against Ole Miss the Gators went deep into the playbook and ran lots of sets and against Mississippi State they should know exactly what defense to expect and therefore be ready to run some set actions.
What they won’t be able to prepare for is the Bulldog’s offensive rebounding. That’s an element of basketball that is tough to replicate in practice and nearly impossible to prepare for, as until you have two centers barreling towards the rim hunting for offensive rebounds you don’t really know what it’s going to look like.
This is going to be a big game for Florida’s power forwards. Anthony Duruji is going to be giving up a lot of size and he’ll need to battle for every inch defensively and fight on every missed shot for position. Florida will probably need to go to junior college transfer Osayi Osifo for a few minutes, and this could really swing the game. He hasn’t exactly looked comfortable in his time in the orange and blue yet and he’ll be in for a big challenge against the Bulldogs.
Anthony Duruji will need to be looked at as someone who can make a difference offensively in this one. He’ll be much quicker than Tolu Smith or Javian Davis who will be guarding him and he needs to punish that matchup. When the ball gets swung to him he’ll know he has a 250 pound player trying to chop his feet and close out to him and he needs to be able to use his athleticism to burst by them at any opportunity.
Florida is the more talented and more experienced team and they need to take care of business against middle of the pack SEC teams if they want to finish anywhere near the top. The matchup is mostly favorable for them outside of the major size advantage Mississippi State will have and with a number of days to prepare for the game the Gators should be ready to go.