Florida State’s domination over the Gators started on December 30th, 2014.
That was when an inadvertent tip in by Jacob Kurtz into his own basket lost Florida the game. Since then, Florida State has won 6 more games, many of which in purely dominant fashion.
The yearly series between the two rivals used to tilt in the Gators’ direction but over the last 7 seasons it has been all Seminoles, and they hold all the momentum going into Sunday’s game (1 PM ET).
This game is important for a number of reasons and Mike White, who has been shut out against Florida State in his Florida tenure, would love nothing more than to change the course of the rivalry. For starters, Florida State has been a top team in the ACC in recent history. They offer the Gators the chance at a quality win, something that would elevate a resume that has looked a bit thin on Selection Sunday over the last few years. Additionally, this is a game that really shapes perception as it relates to recruiting in the state of Florida. The last time the Gators beat the Seminoles was November 29, 2013. That means, for example, that most players in the 2022 recruiting class were 9 or 10 years old the last time they saw Florida get a win over Florida State, so for most or all of their lives where they have been serious about basketball, Florida State has dominated.
Recently Florida State has been the big dog in Florida recruiting and while the Gators have been challenging them with an elite 2022 class already, a win against the Seminoles could go a long way in future classes.
This game is also going to shape a lot of what fans think of the Gators moving forward in the 2021-22 season. If Florida wins, there will be plenty of fans who will start to take the team seriously after flipping over their attention from a depressing football campaign. If the Gators lose, well, there will be plenty of fans who won’t think whatever they do the rest of the non-conference season is for real.
Why has Florida State dominated the rivalry in recent years?
For starters, the Seminoles have been loaded with talent. They have had a number of five-star recruits, future NBA players, and high level transfers. Looking at the amount of talent they have brought in, it’s easy to see why they have won the ACC a couple of times recently over traditional powers like Duke, North Carolina, and Louisville.
But, what has really been a challenge for the Gators even more than the raw level of talent is Florida State’s style of play.
Florida State has been long and athletic and the Gators haven’t been, allowing the Seminoles to dominate on the glass.
Florida State’s defense is all about denying ball reversals and forcing one on one play, and the Gators haven’t had one on one scorers.
Florida State has been old and savvy, and the Gators have been young and inexperienced.
Looking towards this year’s iteration of the rivalry the Gators have a few changes that could help them. For starters, they are much older than recent Florida teams, something which should help out in this early season game. Brandon McKissic, Myreon Jones, and Phlandrous Fleming bring a lot of experience to the Gators and they won’t be rattled when Florida State comes and tries to punch the Gators in the mouth early.
Florida also has a lot more ball movers and capable passers than in recent years, something that should allow them to navigate Florida State’s length a lot better than the Gators in recent seasons. They’ll need a number of intelligent passes on a single possession to break down the Seminoles’ defensive structure, but between Tyree Appleby, Myreon Jones, and Phlandrous Fleming they could be able to meticulously break it down. Colin Castleton also showed against Elon improved passing, something that Florida will need on Sunday.
Florida State’s roster might have a few less proven producers than in normal years but they are still loaded. Anthony Polite and Malik Osborne are two returners you will remember from past battles, and both are keepers of Seminole culture who bring the toughness, physicality, and explosiveness that Florida State basketball is now known for. Osborne, 6’9” and 225 pounds, was Florida State’s best player in the Seminoles’ season opening 105-70 drubbing of Penn, much of it to do with the fact that Penn had no one to match up physically with him. Anthony Duruji and CJ Felder will probably draw the matchup on Sunday and both will be in tough to keep him from getting the ball near the hoop and finishing.
A newcomer that will have a great impact is Caleb Mills, a 6’3” guard who transferred in from Houston. Mills brings a bit of scoring flash that you don’t always see from Florida State guards and he can get hot from deep and break down defenders off the dribble. He brings a very different skill set from the guards Florida has seen in previous matchups and he could get hot at any moment.
I know what you’re thinking–does Florida State have their regular 7-foot giants they have been known for?
The answer–of course.
For starters, they have returner Tanor Ngom, a 7’2” transfer from Ryerson (a Canadian university) who didn’t see a lot of time last year but was expected to play considerable minutes this year. He missed the first game of Florida State’s season, but could be available Sunday. Then, they’ve got a 7’3” JUCO transfer named Naheem McLeod. He was actually in Florida State’s 2019 recruiting class, but ended up spending his first two seasons at junior college and now joins the Seminoles. He was a three-star recruit at the time and now that he’s in his third year of eligibility he will be expected to contribute big time. And, as has generally been the case for Florida State, two 7+ footers hasn’t been enough. They also have a 7’1” freshman named John Butler, because, of course, Florida State corners the market on 7-footer recruiting.
(Here is where I add in that Florida State just got a commitment from Alaaeddine Boutayeb, a 7’2” Moroccan in the class of 2022)
Florida is going to have a whole lot of size to contend with and keeping them off the glass and from scoring easy buckets around the rim could be the difference between winning and losing.
This game is going to come down to who has the advantage between Florida’s smaller skilled guards and Florida State’s longer, more athletic wings and front court. The Gators, in theory, are also the better shooting team, though getting open looks off against the length of Florida State is a difficult task.
If the Gators can keep Florida State off the glass and out of transition and make it a game where both teams trade half court possessions, they may be able to get a win. If Florida State turns the game into a battle of second chance points and odd man rushes in transition, they’ll probably have the edge.
It all goes down Sunday at 1 ET.