Starting the season with a relatively easy slate the Florida Gators (6-0) sit perfect but things will get a little more challenging Thursday as they head to Kississimee to take on Wake Forest (6-1) in the ESPN Events Invitational. This multi-team event (often referred to by the shorthand MTE) will see the Gators then go on to play either Minnesota or Wichita State. At this point you might be thinking to yourself that Florida and Wake Forest should likely be the top two seeds at this event and therefore shouldn’t be playing each other in the opening game, and if so–you’re correct. Initially the matchups were going to see Florida and Wake Forest playing different teams in the opening round, but both coaching staffs preferred to play each other in the opening round, ensuring the opportunity to play the other (projected) top team at the event to get the best chance at resume boosting games. It’s a look at the new way in which coaching staffs are looking at these games, as they’re now more concerned about playing the best possible competition, whereas before the NET system they’d be happy playing the lesser teams at these events in order to maximize their chance at a win.
Wake Forest is in year five of the Steve Forbes era, and they entered the 2024-25 season with legitimate expectations. For the first years of Forbes’ era people were happy to see them improving, but in the last two years they have had strong starts to conference play only to sputter in league competition, and they are yet to play an NCAA Tournament under Forbes. Last season Wake Forest finished 28th in KenPom (two spots behind the Gators) which made them the second highest KenPom team to not make the NCAA Tournament, a number that speaks to the talent of the team and how they didn’t come close to reaching the heights they should have from a resume standpoint.
Returning many players from that team, Wake Forest now has high expectations for the first time in a decade. The respect people are showing for the Demon Deacons was displayed in the ACC preseason poll where they were picked to finish 3rd in the 18 team league, and anything short of an NCAA Tournament will be a disappointment that will leave Forbes with some tough questions to answer.
So far this season Wake Forest is 6-1, though they are a perfect example of why the record doesn’t tell the whole story this early in conference play, and perhaps how advanced analytics can.
Wake Forest started the season 44th in KenPom playing against Coppin State (363rd KenPom), one of the worst teams in division-I. They won just 64-49 while struggling to score, dropping to 60th. Next they played North Carolina A&T (258th in KenPom) and won 80-64, holding steady.
Following that game they had their best performance of the season knocking off Michigan 72-70, but this is really where things started to get weird.
Playing against USC Upstate (342nd KenPom) they just barely avoided disaster by winning 85-80, dropping them to 71st in KenPom, which then dropped to 78th after losing 75-60 to Xavier. They handled Western Carolina (273rd KenPom) 82-69, and then finally had a game far too close for comfort against Detroit Mercy (310 KenPom) winning 67-57.
If you were to look just at the win-loss record you’d think Wake Forest is doing fine but when you look at home they performed in these games you’d see a team that is not playing great basketball and it’s been evidenced with their fall in KenPom from where they started the season 44th to where they are now–96th. For them to reach their goal of an NCAA Tournament they’ll need to turn things around quickly and with Florida being the best team they’ve faced so far it becomes a very important game.
The Gators would also love to get some revenge after suffering a frustrating loss to the Demon Deacons a year ago. Florida was ahead for much of this game and was sitting pretty up by 10 midway through the second half before Forbes made some adjustments and Wake Forest absolutely took over, particularly dominating the last five minutes of the game. They ultimately won 82-71, and it was a game where the Gators left feeling outplayed, out efforted, and outcoached. Fortunately they used it as an opportunity to turn things around, and they’d love to now get some revenge a year later.
Leading the way for Wake Forest is Hunter Sallis, a tremendous 6’5” point guard who torched the Gators for 24 points and 4 assists last year and was a big reason why the Demon Deacons came away victorious. It feels like he hasn’t been playing at quite the same level this season but he’s still averaging 16.8 points and 4.3 assists per game and as someone with the ball in his hands a lot he’s going to be at the top of Florida’s scouting report.
Another player that had his way with Florida last year was 6’4” guard Andrew Hildreth who had 18 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assists. Hildreth isn’t particularly speedy or electric but is a jack-of-all trades who can get into the paint and finish or knock down a jump shot. This year he’s also taken a bit of a step back but is averaging 12.0 points and 4.5 assists per game.
One of the big stories for Wake Forest right now is the status of 7’0”, 250 pound center Efton Reid. Reid missed last season’s game against the Gators with eligibility concerns but was an important player for the Demon Deacons after becoming eligible. This year he started the season as an important piece in the middle of the defense, but has missed their last two games with migraines. With a lot of time before Thursday’s game you’d think he’d have an opportunity to recover, but anyone who has had migraines knows it’s tough to say when the symptoms will subside. Reid brings great size and a bruising physicality to Wake Forest’s frontcourt but when he’s out they instantly become a lot smaller and less intimidating and he would be a valuable piece against a deep Gators center rotation.
Throughout Steve Forbes’ career he has been known as an excellent offensive mind, as the Gators saw firsthand last year when he essentially schemed the Demon Deacons to a win over the Gators. Bringing back the backcourt from last year’s team that was excellent offensively, you expected them to be dynamic once again. However, that hasn’t been the case and scoring has been a massive issue. They currently sit at 144th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric, a number you would have thought to be unbelievable after their 25th finish last year. They have struggled mightily to put up points against some porous defenses this season, and considering how well the Gators have played defensively it could be a very difficult challenge for the Demon Deacons.
Florida’s focus will be trying to suffocate this struggling offense, and that starts with slowing down the backcourt of Sallis and Hildreth who are proven producers. Taking them out of the game leaves Wake Forest with very little firepower, and if those two don’t have big nights it’s hard to see the pathway for them to outscore the Gators.
Florida and Wake Forest will tip off Thursday, November 28th at 2:30 PM ET and it will be televised on ESPN.