The Florida Gators basketball team is on fire and there’s no sign of them looking to slow down as they take their 8-0 record back home to Gainesville where they’ll take on the Virginia Cavaliers (5-2). Currently Florida is just one of two teams (alongside Columbia) that sit at 8-0 with a handful of teams just behind at 7-0, a mark that is giving the Gators a lot of publicity nationally. In terms of KenPom, the most popular system of ranking teams, the Gators are up to 7th–the highest mark they’ve achieved since late in their Elite Eight season in 2017.
Virginia comes to Gainesville as part of the SEC-ACC Challenge, an event that started last year after the Big 12-SEC Challenge came to an end. When announced it wasn’t the flashiest of matchups for the Gators but it is an opportunity for them to avenge a loss from last year that left a bitter taste in the mouths of both the team and fans alike. Virginia frustrated the Gators with their patented pack line defense and found a way to generate 73 points (a ton for the slow paced Cavaliers team), beating the Gators 73-70.
The Cavaliers might be returning a number of players from last year’s team, but they’re missing what had become the face of the program. Head coach Tony Bennett announced on October 18th, just weeks before the season, that he would be retiring from the sport, citing the “current environment” in college sports as one of the driving forces behind his decision to step down. Stepping in to take the job on an interim basis is longtime Virginia assistant Ron Sanchez who was recently let go from his head coach position at Charlotte, and he is trying to keep a lot of the Tony Bennett principals alive in Charlottesville.
So far, the results haven’t been great. Virginia is 5-2, though their best win has come against Villanova who is having a world of problems themselves. The best two teams they have faced are Tennessee and St. John’s, and they were blasted in those contests 64-42 and 80-55. Currently they sit at 102nd in KenPom, with that service projecting a massive Florida win 74-59.
Leading the way for Virginia is guard Isaac McKneely who is a prototypical Virginia guard who is tremendous on the defensive end both on the ball where he can provide excellent pressure or as a help defender where he can impact drivers with his well-timed stunts. Offensively he’s averaging 13.3 points per game to lead the Cavaliers, and given their snail-like pace that’s an admirable number. Right now McKneely is shooting the ball as well as anyone in the country hitting 50% of his threes on 21-42 shooting and the Gators will have to be hyper aware of him behind the arc. Virginia will use a lot of pin downs and flares to try and free up McKneely for clean looks and the Gators will have to be disciplined with the way they guard them in order to mitigate what is clearly Virginia’s most potent offense threat.
Another excellent shooter is Andrew Rohde who is in his second year with the Cavaliers after starting his career at St. Thomas. He is also shooting 50% from deep but on much fewer attempts (10-20), so while he’s not as much of an offensive threat as McKneely he’s going to hunt shots selectively and if the Gators let him get clean looks he’s more than likely going to hit them.
Did you think that was the end of 50% three-point shooters on the Cavaliers? Surprisingly–no. Kansas State transfer Dai Dai Ames is shooting 53% from deep, and as a smaller 6’1” guard whose primary weapon is getting to the rim, the smooth jumper that’s served him so far this season is making him harder to guard.
When Florida lost last year to Virginia their biggest issue was containing 6’11” freshman Blake Buchanan, who in just his second collegiate game hung 18 points on the Gators. He was able to find space around the rim as a cutter and use some up and under fakes to draw fouls and get to the line, and this year the Gators can’t afford to give up as many easy points on the interior as they did a year ago. Buchanan is not a big offensive player and he didn’t reach double figures in points the rest of the season, which speaks to Florida’s issues in taking away easy points around the rim. However, that was last year–and this year the Gators should be much more equipped to guard their yard.
Right now Virginia’s offense is struggling, something that might shock you given their three guards averaging above 50% in three-point shooting. They’re currently 177th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric, and as you saw previously they mustered just 42 and 55 points in losses to high-major competition. Right now Florida’s defense is operating at a high level after suffocating Wichita State and it’s a bit hard to imagine the Cavaliers being able to muster an efficient offensive showing against just about anyone, much less a Florida team that’s starting to really take shape on that side of the floor.
Virginia has won games in the past while having poor offenses, so perhaps the real issue for them so far this season is that their defense is just 55th in the country according to KenPom which isn’t good enough to overcome their problems on the other end. Isaac McKneely is a dog guarding the ball and Blake Buchanan is excellent in ball screen defense, but the Cavaliers don’t have the athletes and length they normally have to execute their defensive structure and it’s resulting in them giving up much more points than they can afford.
Going into this game Florida is not only cruising but looking like they’re picking up speed while Virginia is sputtering, but we saw the Cavaliers find a way to beat the Gators last year despite having less talent and they’ll look to do that again.
Florida and Virginia will tip off December 4th at 7:15 ET, and the game will be televised on ESPN 2.