For the Florida Gators (18-8, 8-5 SEC) to continue their path to a comfortable seed in the NCAA Tournament they need to take care of business in games they are projected to win, and that couldn’t be more true for February 24th’s game against the lowly Vanderbilt Commodores (7-19, 2-11 SEC) who have been one of the worst performing high-major teams in the country.
Entering Jerry Stackhouse’s fifth year as head coach of the Commodores there was enthusiasm that this was the year they could finish in the middle of the SEC and compete for an NCAA Tournament berth. Last year Vandy finished 22-15 finishing 6th in the SEC and adding two wins in the SEC Tournament and a pair of wins in the NIT. It was thought that they might be gutted of their talent, but it was huge news when 6’4” scoring guard Tyrin Lawrence announced his return. This made for some buzz around the Commodores to start the season, but that buzz quickly went away. Injuries to key players (including Lawrence) got things off to a bad start as the Commodores lost to Presbyterian, the 271st ranked team in the country according to KenPom, before barely surviving 74-67 against USC Upstate (285th in KenPom), 74-70 against UNC Greensboro (138th in KenPom), and avoiding what was nearly one of the biggest disasters of season–75-71 over Central Arkansas who is 341st in KenPom. Vanderbilt closed out their non-conference season 5-8 and since limped into the SEC where they are 2-11 and second to last in the conference. Their two wins have come against Missouri who is currently winless and in last place in the SEC and Texas A&M in a thriller that they won at the buzzer.
Their previous two games have been a 35-point loss against Tennessee, and a 12-point loss to a Georgia team that was riding a 6-game losing streak spanning three weeks.
Vanderbilt’s poor season means they are currently 232nd in the NET and an absolute landmine possibility for the Gators. With the game taking place in Gainesville this is a clear quadrant-4 game for Florida meaning that there isn’t a whole lot to gain–but there is a whole lot to lose. Dropping a quad-4 game at home would almost certainly be a drop in seed line, if not more, and while the Gators can afford to do that and still be in the NCAA Tournament it’s certainly not something they’re trying to do. Coming off an emotional overtime game against Alabama there is some trap game potential as the level of intensity should be a lot different playing against a Vanderbilt team that’s just trying to get through the rest of the season.
When it comes to what has caused Vanderbilt problems it’s hard to pinpoint one thing. They are currently 210th in the country in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric and 222nd in adjusted defensive efficiency, so it’s not like there is one side of the ball that has been causing them problems.
Defensively, it starts with a lack of size and athleticism. The Commodores get much of their minutes in the frontcourt from 6’8”, 230 pound Van-Allen Lubin and 6-6, 205 pound Evan Taylor and while these guys are competitors it’s difficult for them to be impactful as help side defenders and as disruptors in ball screen defense without huge frames are high-level athleticism to make up for the lack of length. Vanderbilt’s perimeter group aren’t lockdown defenders by any means and when they give up penetration there isn’t anyone capable of helping at the rim and that has meant a lot of scrambled rotations and in the modern era that means giving up open threes. Currently opponents are shooting 38% from three making the Commodores 353rd in the country in three-point percentage defense and that number isn’t all that surprising when you see how many open threes they give up. Florida is going to have a massive advantage when it comes to athleticism in the backcourt and Zyon Pullin and Walter Clayton should be able to get into the paint whenever they want and with these two players putting up huge numbers as of late there is no reason to suggest they couldn’t have another huge night. Florida will also have a massive size advantage in the frontcourt and they could utilize that in a number of ways whether it be trying to seal and post these guys up or simply let them go to work on the offensive glass.
When it comes to scoring things are just about the opposite for Vanderbilt. On defense they are allowing a ton of threes but on offense they just cannot hit them. Currently the Commodores are 347th in the country in three-point percentage and the lack of floor spacing does not help them when it comes to creating space for their downhill guards. As mentioned earlier they also don’t have a ton of size in the frontcourt so it’s not like they have a monster they can throw it into to get a bucket, so you see the Commodores operating a lot in the midrange hoping a defense slips up and they can find somewhat of an open look.
Tyrin Lawrence was Vanderbilt’s big name player entering the season and unfortunately early injuries have kept him from ever really getting into rhythm though he has still been effective with 13.4 points per game. At 6’4” he has nice size and a good handle to get into the paint, though with Vanderbilt lacking shooting there isn’t often a lot of space there.
Stepping up this season has been point guard Ezra Manjon who has been leading the way with 14.0 points and 3.7 assists per game and he has the ball in his hands the most in the halfcourt meaning Florida’s scouting report will start with him. At 6’0” he’s undersized for the SEC but he can often use that to his advantage getting through tight spaces to get to the rim–something he needs given how crowded it often is there. At times he struggles with turnovers, but that’s often because he is tasked with trying to create something out of nothing for an offense that hasn’t been able to generate much.
Right now the Gators can’t afford to drop games to teams like Vanderbilt and with this being the first of two meetings to close out the season they’ll want to leave no doubt in the first meeting. With a size, athleticism, and shooting advantage the Gators should be in the driver’s seat, but anything can happen in college basketball.
This could also be an opportunity for the Gators to get some more minutes for Riley Kugel who played just 2 minutes against Alabama, or to see some more action from young players like Denzel Aberdeen or Kajus Kublickas.
Florida and Vanderbilt will tip off at 1 PM ET on February 24th and it will be televised on SEC Network.