Playing Kansas State, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Alabama is as difficult of a four-game stretch as the Gators are going to play this season and after going 1-3 they’ll now need to take care of teams they’re expected to beat if they want to make the NCAA Tournament.
That begins Saturday as the Gators will take on the Vanderbilt Commodores at home. Florida currently sits 7th in the SEC at 6-5 (13-11 on the season) and the Commodores sit a few spots back at 9th, sporting a 5-6 record in the league while going 12-12 overall.
Vanderbilt is 106th in the NCAA’s NET Rankings, making this a quadrant-3 game for the Gators. At this point in the Gators’ season it might be too early to say this is a must win/can’t lose kind of game but with them currently sitting outside of the projected NCAA Tournament field a loss would be extremely detrimental. The Gators are yet to take a quadrant-3 or quadrant-4 loss this season which is the strength of their resume, so if they were to take a bad loss here there would be a lot of holes in their body of work.
Making this game even more dangerous for the Gators is that the Commodores are coming off what is easily their biggest win of the season knocking off Tennessee 66-65. What’s interesting about the Commodore’s season so far is that they have proven they can beat quality opponents–not just Tennessee, but also taking down Arkansas early in the season. However, they have also shown they can take some pretty bad losses, falling to Grambling State and Southern Miss. While they can be prone to some poor showings they are coming off an excellent performance and that means they will enter Gainesville as a confident ball club. Vanderbilt is also within reach of one of their best conference finishes in quite a while, sitting at 5-6 just behind the likes of Florida and Arkansas who are battling for position in the 5th-6th range. They won’t lack motivation, and this will be a battle of too hungry teams.
Last season the Commodores, led by head coach Jerry Stackhouse, were known for their defense and it allowed them to go on a bit of a run in the SEC Tournament beating Georgia and Alabama. This year things are flipped and it’s the offense that has been working for the ‘Dores while their defense has lagged behind. According to KenPom the Commodores are 49th in the country in offensive efficiency and they have shown the ability to get some key buckets, such as at the end of the game against Tennessee where they ran an excellent set on the final possession to win the game at the buzzer. Stackhouse has NBA and G League experience and he has always been as good as anyone in the league at drawing up plays and when games get close his “after time out” play ability often gives his team an edge.
Leading the way for Vanderbilt offensively is center Liam Robbins who uses his bulk at 7’0”, 250 pounds to get deep seals and finish around the rim. He’s currently averaging 13 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 blocks per game and the matchup between him and Castleton will be a fascinating one. Robbins’ game is a bit more based on angles and using his size to create layups at the rim, whereas Castleton is more length and quickness. Right now Castleton is playing arguably the best basketball of his career and he’ll have to get the best of Robbins for the Gators to have their best chance at a win.
Another player to be aware of is Myles Stute who provides elite three-point shooting from the forward position currently stroking it at 40% from beyond the arc. The Commodores aren’t a quality three-point shooting team but have found a way to be successful offensively despite it, but their one gunner from outside is Stute who the Gators will have to be aware of. The Gators were just lit up from behind the arc by Alabama and they’ll look to get back to their defensive identity of protecting the three on Saturday.
A player who has really come on of late for Vanderbilt is Tyrin Lawrence who had an excellent game against Tennessee, punctuated by the buzzer beating three he hit to win the game. He has had 19 points and 18 points in his last two contests and is growing in confidence driving the ball and he’s a player that could draw the Gators’ best defender, particularly if he is playing aggressively.
As has been the case in recent years the Commodores don’t have a lot of great length or athleticism on the wings and that has contributed to some defensive issues and they have struggled on that end at times. They’re currently 178th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and that could be just what the Gators need to put some points up considering how much they have struggled offensively in SEC play. The Commodores were able to limit Tennessee’s offense which is why they stayed in the game and ultimately won so they have proven they can guard at times so there is a chance the Gators face a quality resistance.
Every game remaining on the schedule is important for the Gators and they can’t take anyone lightly, and playing a scrappy Vanderbilt squad that just had an incredible win will be a major challenge they’ll have to be ready for.
The Gators and Commodores play February 11th at 3:30 PM ET and it will be televised on SEC Network.