After losing to the #5 ranked Kansas State Wildcats on the road on Saturday things don’t get any easier on Wednesday when they take on the Tennessee Volunteers, a team that has a legitimate case at being called the number one team in the country right now.
Currently 18-3 on the year and 7-1 in the SEC, Tennessee currently sits at #4 in the AP Poll–though the rankings will be updated by the time they come to Gainesville to see the Gators and they could very well pass Alabama who was just blasted by Oklahoma in the Big 12-SEC Challenge. While they might be “only” #4 in the AP Poll, other relevant numbers suggest they are even better. They currently sit at #2 in the NET Rankings (behind Houston, who has taken a quad-3 loss which Tennessee hasn’t) and in the ever-important KenPom ranking, the Volunteers are, wait for it–#1.
Whichever way you want to look at it, Tennessee is one of the top teams in the country and the Gators are going to have their hands full on Wednesday in the O’Dome.
This will be a fairly familiar looking Tennessee team to Florida fans–something you might not want to hear considering how well the Vols have played against the Gators in recent years. Tennessee’s roster construction is a bit of a throwback to a time before the transfer portal came to the forefront of player acquisition. They were able to keep their core together from last year, and only really play one transfer significant minutes–and he was a true, sit out a year transfer in Tyreke Key who came from Indiana State. Head Coach Rick Barnes was also able to bring in an elite recruit in forward Julian Phillips, upping his team’s length and athleticism. In a world of immediately eligible transfers and a lot of high major teams consisting of incoming mid-major recruits, Tennessee is a team of continuity–and it has resulted in an extremely successful season so far.
Right now Tennessee’s most impressive wins consist of neutral site wins over Kansas and Maryland, and their win on Saturday against Texas at home also adds a nice boost to their resume as they look to grab a #1 seed in the bracket come March. While those are some impressive wins they don’t have a huge cache of marquee victories, though they have avoided bad losses. Colorado, Arizona, and Kentucky stand as their only losses and while they’d love to have the Colorado and Kentucky (at home) games back, none of those losses are devastating from a resume standpoint.
Defense is the area where Tennessee has really dominated this season and while they have fluctuated a bit within the top-10 of most overall rankings, they have held pretty steady as the top defensive team in the country by whichever metric you want to look at. KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric is considered the standard to evaluate a team’s defense and they are holding steady at #1 there, a title they’ve had for quite some time.
Florida currently sits at 147th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, tumbling even more in that metric after a putrid scoring output at Kansas State, and you have to think that they will be in a world of hurt against Tennessee’s stifling defense.
This is where Tennessee’s roster continuity really helps them. Many of these players have practiced the same defensive concepts for multiple years together so they are extremely connected, and because they had the fundamentals of their defensive structure down so early in the season they have been able to add different special situation adjustments that have made them even more frustrating to play against.
The Vols have played exclusively man defense so far this season, taking pride in individual matchups and knowing that their help rotations are going to recover and stop drives with any breakdown on the ball. In a pick and roll heavy world the Volunteers have put a lot of effort into nailing down their pick and roll defense and it has allowed them to be the best pick and roll defensive team in the country, allowing only 0.6 points per possession on these plays.
Everything about Tennessee’s defense centers around protecting the interior, so they will give up a lot of threes–a tradeoff that they are willing to make in order to ensure their opposition doesn’t get on the inside. Has giving up a lot of threes hurt them? No–they are first in the country in opponent three-point percentage at a measly 22%. Even though they give up a lot of threes they are still able to get out and contest on the perimeter, and their ability to both protect the paint and not allow three-point makes is what makes them quite easily the best defense in the country.
If you’re looking for a place Tennessee is vulnerable, it’s on the offensive side. The Volunteers are 33rd in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, and while that number isn’t terrible by any stretch the Volunteers have shown they can go on lengthy scoring droughts and it has allowed some of their lesser opponents to stay in games.
Coach Barnes loves to play through his big men Olivier Nkamhoua and Uros Plavsic, and while those are two big, menacing dudes (6’9”, 240 pounds and 7’1”, 265 pounds, respectively) they aren’t elite scorers and they can slow down the offense at times. They will certainly have their moments overpowering most other frontcourt players in the country, but they’re not the elite offensive pivots that have shown they can carry a totally efficient offense. They will cause matchup issues for the Gators who may lean on Jason Jitoboh off the bench more than normal to match bulk with bulk.
Tennessee’s offense is balanced with five players averaging between 10 and 12 points, but if you had to choose their most important player it would be between Santiago Vescovi and Zakai Zeigler. Both are talented ball handlers, but they get things done in different ways. Vescovi has a bit more size at 6’3” and likes to bully guards down into the paint before making a play for his teammates, while the 5’9” Ziegler wants to cook his man off the dribble and get downhill at full speed, collapsing the defense before finding a teammate. Between them they average 8 assists per game, and they’ll both present matchup issues for the Gators who will have to be savvy with their lineups to get defensive matchups they like on these two.
Right now it seems like Florida’s key to the game is the same no matter who the opponent is–they need to find some offensive rhythm. Their defense is keeping them in games, but they are lost on the offensive end and that will need to change if they want to stay in the mix for a possible NCAA Tournament berth. Of course, that won’t be easy against the best defense in the country–the Tennessee Volunteers.
This game takes place February 1st at 7 PM ET and will be Televised on ESPN 2.