Riding a four game winning streak the Florida Gators (4-1) will get their chance to put together some more high-major wins when they take on the TCU Horned Frogs (3-2) in the opening game of the Rady Children’s Invitational in San Diego.
After opening the season with a hard-fought loss to Arizona the Gators have steadily put together wins, though it hasn’t seemed like they have been playing up to the level they were capable of and they will now see some interesting tests at this multi-team event in California, starting with the Horned Frogs. Jamie Dixon is back at the helm for his 10th season as head coach in Fort Worth where he has built a consistently competitive Big 12 program that made the NCAA Tournament in 2022, 2023, and 2024–though they missed it last year and they’d like to bounce back as quickly as possible. With an improved roster they might have a chance, though they hit a major speedbump in their opening game of the season. TCU kicked things off against New Orleans, a team that finished last season 341st in KenPom and had players implicated in a betting scandal, and shockingly ended up losing 78-74. Now, it looks like New Orleans is certainly better than their 341st placing last season–though it’s still not a nice loss to be taking. Their one high-major game came against a strong Michigan team where they lost 67-63 at home, and they’re now coming off an 81-45 drubbing of Kansas City. Currently ranked 79th in KenPom, this game should end up being on the cusp of a quad-2 and quad-3 game, and the Gators will be heavily favored to win.
Throughout the Jamie Dixon tenure, TCU basketball has always been about defense and toughness. His rosters have almost always looked the same with small, quick point guards pressuring the ball and thick, muscular wings that look like linebackers filling up the wings. At the center spot, he generally favors shorter, stockier bigs that use a low center of gravity to leverage taller players while also having the foot speed to aggressively guard pick and rolls. You can always bet on the Horned Frogs to be a stout defensive team, though the offense can be a bit of an adventure. Last season the Horned Frogs were 33rd in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and 203rd in adjusted offensive efficiency, and while their roster looks like it should be a bit improved on the offensive end, you can bet they are once again going to be tilted far more towards stopping their opponent than putting the ball in the hoop themselves.
Tasked with leading the charge offensively is Jayden Pierce, a 6’0”, 177 pound point guard who played for three years at Providence before choosing to finish out his collegiate career at TCU. Always wired to be in attack mode, he is providing some of the offensive usage and scoring threat that TCU needs, though he hasn’t been able to put up big numbers in an offense that, on the whole, has struggled to find any rhythm. He is averaging 12.2 points and 2.2 assists per game, with backcourt mate Brock Harding providing more of the playmaking at 5.2 assists per game. Harding is a fascinating player in his own right as a 6’0” guard who looks to pass much more than shoot, which gets him into some difficult moments at times, though he is very capable of creating easy points for teammates. Where Harding is at his best is the defensive side of the floor where he absolutely hounds opposing ball handlers and makes their life difficult with every dribble. Through five games he is averaging 3.4 steals, and he will have the chance to really frustrate a Florida backcourt that hasn’t exactly been playing at an elite level.
An interesting player to take note of is Xavier Edmunds, a 6’8”, 245 pound forward who is the exact type of stocky interior banger that Coach Dixon likes. Edmunds was the number one rated JUCO player in the country last year, and in an era where so many high-major coaches still value small school D-I transfers over Junior College Coach Dixon still respects the level, and he brought in Edmunds and has been using him a lot. While Edmunds is still getting used to the TCU style he is averaging 9.6 points and 4.4 rebounds per game, and he looks like he’s still getting better with each game.
Seemingly aware of his roster’s offensive limitations, Coach Dixon brought in Tanner Toolson from Utah Valley, a 6’5” wing who is streaky but can score in bunches when the jumper is hitting. For example, he had 25 points earlier this season against St. Francis–and followed it up with 0 against Lamar.
Perhaps TCU’s biggest x-factor is Oregon State transfer Liutauras Lelevicius, a skilled 6’7 ball handler who can bring some of the defensive IQ Coach Dixon likes while having a lot more offensive talent than a lot of similar players in recent TCU history. Lelevicius doesn’t have a ton of burst to his game and isn’t going to command a ton of shots, but when he gets the ball he makes the right decisions and can pass, shoot, and dribble, and he’ll be an interesting matchup for Thomas Haugh.
So far this season TCU has been pretty dominant when it comes to rebounding, though they have done it against a weaker schedule, and they don’t actually have a ton of length. Most of their frontcourt pieces are 6’7” or 6’8” so Florida will have a major length advantage, though TCU boasts a lot more muscle and below the rim strength. This still should suggest the Gators will have their chance to tip out a lot of missed shots and get a lot of offensive rebounds, but look for the shorter Horned Frogs to still cause Florida some issues.
The winner of this game will go on to face the winner of Wisconsin and Providence, with Wisconsin being the favorite to win by a few possessions. Wisconsin would provide a good shot at a quad-1 game, whereas Providence would probably be another game on the border of quad-2 and quad-3, so if Florida wants to build a resume this opening game against TCU has huge importance.
Florida and TCU will tip off on Thursday, November 27th at 3 PM ET and it will be televised on FS1.