Following a dominant win at home against Florida A&M the Gators (5-3) will take on the Stetson Hatters (4-2) in Gainesville. It wasn’t long ago that these teams last played with the Hatters coming to Gainesville in 2020 with the Gators winning comfortably 86-40. Keyontae Johnson led the way in that one with 19 points, Noah Locke was 5-6 from three, and the Gators’ offense was overwhelming on their way to an easy win.
Finished to pick 12th out of 14 teams in the Atlantic Sun conference things were expected to go poorly for the Hatters this year but they’re off to a decent start. They opened the season with a convincing 83-74 victory on the road at Florida State which at the time seemed like a massive upset–though perhaps it was more of a sign of where things were at for the Seminoles. Even with Florida State shorthanded that was a great win for the Hatters who went on to also take down South Florida and Rider before dropping games to Niagara and Campbell, both of which were close games.
This is year four for the Hatters under head coach Donnie Jones who had success this year keeping a number of quality pieces around this season, a monumental feat for modern college basketball where mid-major teams are often losing their most valuable pieces to the portal.
Behind the success of the Hatters this season has been their efficiency from behind the three-point line. The Hatters are 26th in the country in three-point shots attempted, and nearly half of their field goal attempts come from behind the arc. They have also been efficient, shooting 38.7% from deep which is good for 31st in the country. Shooting that many threes and hitting them at an efficient clip is a great way to win basketball games and right now it is making their offense click.
Right now the Gators are struggling mightily in defending the three-point line which is going to be a concern as they prepare for this game. Opponents are getting a ton of threes off against the Gators, something that goes against the defensive philosophy Golden brought from San Francisco, and they’re currently hitting a lot of them. Florida is 316th in the country in three-point percentage defense allowing 38.4% and that’s a concern going against a Stetson team that’s going to let a lot of threes fly.
Florida’s preparation to guard Stetson and the three-point line will have to start with transition defense. Stetson likes to hunt threes in transition by running guards to the wide corners and if there’s nothing there, hitting the trailer for what they hope will be an easy step-in three. Transition defense has been an issue for the Gators and it will be tested by the Hatters.
Right now Stetson’s most lethal shooter is 6’7 wing Wheza Panza who is shooting 13-20 (65%) from behind the arc. Will that percentage hold for much of the season? No, but right now he’s on an absolute heater and the Gators will have to be aware of him behind the arc, particularly at 6’7” where he can get his shot off against a lot of guards and wings trying to close out on him.
Another sniper for Stetson is 6’1” Luke Brown who is shooting 14-27 (52%) on the season which unfortunately for him has only been four games. He has missed the last two games due to injury. His status against the Gators is unknown, but Stetson’s last game was on Tuesday so if he was close to coming back he’d have some recovery time to hopefully get right to compete against Florida. Brown was 7-11 from behind the arc against Florida State and was a big part of the reason why Stetson was able to get the upset so his presence in this game would be massive.
Much of the reason why Stetson is able to get so many clean threes is the play of guard Stephan Swenson who is averaging 12 points and 5 assists per game while shooting 38% from the three-point line himself. His shooting is a major threat like a few of his teammates, but where he helps the team the most is with his passing–creating a lot of the wide open attempts that Stetson is living on right now. Keeping Swenson out of the paint will be a major priority for the Gators and it will be interesting to see who they plan on putting on the 6’2” guard defensively to try and slow him down.
Against Florida A&M point guard Kyle Lofton and wing Will Richard were unavailable due to injury and it’s not yet known if they’ll be playing against Stetson. Richard’s defense would definitely be a positive for the Gators if he was available to try and run some of the Stetson three-point shooters off the line and contest the shots they do get off with his length.
Defensively Stetson is going to try to confuse the Gators with a heavy dose of zone. 36% of their defensive possessions have been in zone so far this season as they try to confuse opponents and try to keep them out of the paint. Florida has been good offensively against zones this year so it shouldn’t be a major issue for them, but it’s certainly something they’ll need to be aware of.
For Florida this game needs to be about tightening up their defense both in transition and the halfcourt. Two of their defensive issues have been stopping the fast break and then stopping three-point shots in the half court and Stetson is a quality team in both of those regards. You’d love to see Florida improve in both those areas and they’ll have that opportunity against the Hatters.
This game takes place Sunday, December 4th at 2 PM ET and will be televised on SEC Network.