If Florida wants to make a magical run to the NCAA Tournament it will all start on Thursday when they’ll play in their opening game of the SEC Tournament against Mississippi State.
With a win on Saturday against LSU the Gators locked up the 8-seed, setting up a matchup with the 9-seed Bulldogs. While these teams are close to each other in the standings, their regular seasons ended with two different trajectories. The Gators started to slide and then lost their star center Colin Castleton, leading to a 3-6 finish with the wins coming against the bottom three teams in the league. Mississippi State, on the other hand, is playing some of their best basketball of the season. They’re 8-3 in their last 11, getting wins over TCU, Arkansas, Texas A&M, and Missouri–all teams who were playing at a high level during the matchups.
If you believe in momentum then the Gators are going to be in tough in this matchup, though the fresh start on a neutral floor could be just what the Gators need. The SEC Tournament is taking place in Nashville, a regular destination, and that should offer a pretty true neutral environment between these two teams. Since Castleton went down the Gators have been searching for a style of play that will benefit their depleted roster, and every day of practice they get will help them get closer to that goal. Florida did see improvements in their final two games of the season, particularly on the offensive end, and that could be a positive sign for them as they try to become the SEC’s Cinderella team.
In order to make the NCAA Tournament the Gators would have to win the SEC Tournament, but if they fall short of that the next goal will be to earn an NIT bid. The Gators are likely in position to do so even if they were to lose on Thursday, but if they were able to get a win or two than they might be able to get into the picture for a chance to host a first round NIT game which would obviously be the preference over heading to a tough road environment.
Mississippi State is in the NCAA Tournament field as an 11-seed according to Bracket Matrix, meaning they could desperately use a win to secure their fate. Additionally, they’d love to improve that seed in order to draw a better first round opponent. They will be a hungry team in this matchup.
Awaiting the winner of Florida and Mississippi State is top-seeded Alabama–which is why the 8-9 position is a dreaded spot to be in when it comes to the SEC standings.
The regular season matchup between the Gators and Bulldogs saw a predictable rock fight where both teams struggled to score, but Florida was able to outlast Mississippi State for a 61-59 win. This game took place in the middle of January when the Gators were playing defense at top-5 national level, and the Bulldogs have been a consistent defensive team all season long (8th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency). That’s what made the low-scoring game predictable, and it could very well be the case again when these two teams match up.
Right now the biggest issue facing Mississippi State is an immense struggle in shooting the ball. At 27.3% from three the Bulldogs are dead last in the country in three-point percentage–and in 2023 that makes it pretty hard to win a basketball game. They often have several sub-30% three-point shooters on the perimeter at once and it allows opponents to suck into the paint to protect the inside and that’s exactly what the Gators will do on Thursday.
That’s because the biggest offensive threat on the floor is Tolu Smith who is quietly putting together an incredible season averaging 15 points, 8 rebounds, and 2 assists per game. He has been productive and efficient on the inside–and that’s with defenses relentlessly double teaming him every time he catches the ball inside the arc. He would be an even more effective player if he had shooting around him, but he’s able to still score in bunches with a condensed floor which speaks to his talent. Florida limited him to only 12 points in their matchup this season, daring Smith to pass the pass out to a struggling shooter on the perimeter, and he’ll be looking for a much better showing on Thursday.
While they may not be able to shoot at a high level, Mississippi State’s guards are still capable scorers who can get to the paint even with defenses collapsing inside in an attempt to take it away. Dashawn Davis is a physical point guard who can beat his defender with a strong first step, while former Memphis wing DJ Jeffries can play bully ball and back his defender down into the paint before finishing. There are going to be some interesting cross matches from a size and physicality standpoint, but the Gators will continue to bank on the lack of floor spacing by the Bulldogs and send lots of defensive help.
For the Gators, this game will be about solving Mississippi State’s elite defense. The Bulldogs are a team that has struggled at times offensively due to their lack of shooting but has made up for it by being extremely disruptive on the defensive end, including being 5th in the country in steal percentage. The Gators will have a chance to keep the Bulldogs off the scoreboard by collapsing in on the paint, but they’ll need to generate some kind of offense against a team they had some issues with.
Florida and Mississippi State’s SEC Tournament game takes place on March 9th at 1 PM ET and will be televised on SEC Network.