Tuesday night saw the Gators secure an outright SEC regular season title and they’ll look to stay in the hunt for a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament when they head to Rupp Arena to take on the Kentucky Wildcats.
Currently 15-2 in SEC play, Florida has nothing to gain from an SEC seeding standpoint as they locked up the top seed, but they have eyes on a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament and that would likely require winning this game and going on to win the SEC Tournament title, but you can’t say for certain as the teams they are chasing will have more opportunities for quality wins given the stronger Big 12 and Big 10 conferences.
Kentucky, on the other hand–has a lot to gain.
Entering Tuesday night the Wildcats still had a chance to finish as high as third in the SEC, and things were looking great against Texas A&M where they immediately built a double-digit lead. Then, Coach Mark Pope took out four starters, and Texas A&M put on one of the fastest 40-10 runs you’re ever going to see, and the Aggies held the lead and won.
The loss puts Kentucky right into the absolute blender of the SEC standings that will be shaken like dice in a cup Saturday, and teams will inevitably move up or down several spots based on results. Here are the records of the top 10 teams in the SEC as of this moment:
Florida (15-2)
Alabama (12-5)
Arkansas (11-5)
Tennessee (11-6)
Vanderbilt (10-7)
Kentucky (10-7)
Texas A&M (10-7)
Missouri (10-7)
Texas (9-7)
Georgia (9-8)
As you can see, Kentucky finds themselves in quite the position where they could either finish in the upper third of the league or fall several spots and finish firmly in the middle–all based on if they can upset Florida.
Of course, with Kentucky basketball–success is not measured by SEC regular season and tournament success. There is pressure on Pope to go on a deep NCAA Tournament run and that starts with a quality seed. With the loss to Texas A&M, Kentucky now finds themselves on the line between a 6-7 seed, and a win against a team like Florida would be a massive boost to their resume.
For Florida, this is a game about holding serve in their pursuit of a 1-seed, but for Kentucky it could mean a full seedline in NCAA Tournament seeding and 3-4 spots in the SEC standings, so this will be an extremely motivated Wildcats group.
This will be the second meeting between the two teams with Florida taking the first meeting in Gainesville 92-83. Florida quickly jumped out to the lead and controlled much of the game, though the Wildcats did have their patented second half surge to bring the game within a couple of possessions, making the Gators sweat a bit before they stretched the lead in the final minutes. This was a microcosm of Kentucky’s season as they have been susceptible to digging themselves huge holes, while also having the ability to go on big runs themselves. Unfortunately for them, the holes have often been bigger than their spurtability–leading to some frustrating losses such as what they took against Texas A&M.
Florida’s first win over Kentucky also saw one of the best games of the season for Xaivian Lee with 22 points, while Urban Klavzar was in the midst of his fiery shooting streak going for 19.
With Pope known largely as an offensive coach, it was expected that the Wildcats would figure out how to score efficiently, and with many of their portal additions geared around defense–they thought things would be taken care of on that end. Just one of those things were true as Kentucky has guarded well, but the offense has continually gotten colder and colder and they are now 11th in adjusted offense in SEC play. Otega Oweh remains a downhill driving threat and there is good shooting on the perimeter with Denzel Aberdeen, Collin Chandler, Jasper Johnson hitting shots consistently, but there just isn’t enough offensive creativity or versatility for the Wildcats to get easy scores. Since the last meeting Florida has refined their defense further and has been clamping down opponents entirely, and it could be ugly if Kentucky doesn’t come with a distinct plan of how to attack Florida’s length.
Defensively the Wildcats have been solid, and with solid length around the floor it can be difficult to get to the rim. On the other hand, by using their length to form walls around the paint Kentucky isn’t all that disruptive and doesn’t look for steals, and it can be easy for teams like Florida to get what they want against teams that don’t try to speed them up. The size and length of Kentucky also makes them competitive on the glass, though there are few teams that can completely shut the Gators down there.
It’s unknown if Thomas Haugh will play as he rests a slight ankle tweak. He missed the game against Mississippi State but it was precautionary–Florida was feeling good about their chances to handle that game without him and chose to give Haugh the rest. With this game not mattering a ton to Florida they could give him another day off in order to be prepared for SEC Tournament play, but the Gators might want all hands on deck when heading to Rupp as a loss could hurt their 1-seed candidacy in the NCAA Tournament.
This will be senior day for the Wildcats, and you never know what the emotions of these days can bring–especially in the first few minutes of action.
Florida and Kentucky will tip off Saturday, March 7th at 4 PM ET and it will be televised on ESPN or ESPN 2.