Florida will get a loud start to their SEC season on January 6th when the Gators (10-3) will take on the Kentucky Wildcats (10-2) in a marquee TV game. In recent years the Florida-Kentucky matchups have been reserved for later in the SEC season but this year Gator fans will get an early treat with a huge quad-1 game and the opportunity to start the league off with a bang.
For the first time in years, Kentucky entered the season with a bit of desperation. The Wildcats fell in the second round of last year’s NCAA Tournament which was actually a great improvement on the prior two seasons when they were upset famously in the first round by Saint Peter’s in 2022 and when they missed the NCAA Tournament in 2021. Obviously expectations in Kentucky are as high as anywhere in the country, and this three year stretch was not at all reaching the program’s standard.
Of course, even after a disappointing run of three seasons a program like Kentucky is able to retool in a hurry and they put together a talented squad for the 2023-24 season. Picked 4th in the SEC Preseason Poll it was looking like the WIldcats could be a contender once again, and a bit of an easier non-conference schedule than they usually play has them riding a 10-2 record into league play. Right now their best win is against North Carolina on a neutral site, followed by a 22-point blowout over Miami at home. One of Kentucky’s losses is forgivable, dropping a neutral site contest to Kansas, but their other isn’t quite as good. UNC Wilmington came into Rupp and stunned the Wildcats by 7, giving the Wildcats somewhat of a bad loss on their schedule (UNC Wilmington is a quality mid-major team–currently 115th in KenPom). Normally the Wildcats will play a lot of challenging non-conference games but this year was different. Head coach John Calipari wanted to build the confidence of his team and give them a taste of winning early, which is different from prior years when he wanted to challenge his guys and show them how tough it is to win against the best teams in the country. This could make for a bit of a different looking Kentucky team early in SEC play than we’re used to seeing from the battle tested Wildcats of previous years, though we will see on Saturday.
It’s not just scheduling where the Wildcats look different this year. Calipari has chosen to modernize his roster building and style of play and Kentucky, who has traditionally struggled in this area, is actually shooting way more threes than in the past and hitting them at a tremendous rate. They are shooting a few less threes in recent games than they did early in the season but the Wildcats are still 163rd in the country in three-point rate which is way up from 330th where they were last year. However, it’s not just the amount of threes that Kentucky is launching–it’s how many they’re converting. Kentucky is currently shooting 41.6% from three, the third best in the country, and this three-point marksmanship alongside the athleticism they display from multiple positions makes them a scary team. In recent years most teams defended the Wildcats by packing the paint to try and take away driving lanes while being willing to give up threes to teams that were seemingly always below average from the arc but this year things are completely different. Reed Sheppard (56%), Antonio Reeves (46%) Rob Dillingham (45%), and Tre Mitchell (38%) all provide elite shooting from the 1 to 4 positions and these four will often play together–meaning defenses have to somehow try to contend with this much floor spacing. Florida has done well to limit their opponent’s three-point attempts this year (41st in defensive three-point rate) and it will certainly be a focus for them on Saturday when they try to slow down the Wildcats.
Leading the way for Kentucky in scoring is Antonio Reeves who is in his second season as a Wildcat after transferring from Illinois State. Reeves’ erratic shooting last season didn’t always make him the most popular Wildcat among fans but this year he has been consistent, shooting 46% from three on heavy volume on his way to averaging 19.0 points per game. From the moment Reeves passes half court he’s a threat, and he is always moving intelligently without the ball to try and find catch and shoot opportunities. While he isn’t the highest percentage three-point shooter on the team he shoots the most and is still hitting an outrageous 46% from deep and he could be at the top of Florida’s scouting report.
Kentucky’s biggest story this year has actually been a rare freshman to come to the Wildcats without massive expectations. Guard Reed Sheppard was the 79th ranked player in the class of 2023 and when he committed to Kentucky there was conversation in the media of why the Wildcats would even take a player outside of the top-30 rankings, as well as conversation regarding if it’s in Sheppard’s best interest to go to a program where he might not get opportunities right away. Well, it looks like Sheppard made the right choice as he has been tremendous on both ends of the floor for Kentucky averaging 12.5 points, 4.7 rebounds, 4.3 assists, and 2.8 steals–firmly putting himself in one-and-done NBA lottery pick conversations despite the fact he wasn’t on that radar whatsoever entering the season. Sheppard was a tremendous high school player in the state of Kentucky, though at just 6’3” and without eye-popping athleticism he wasn’t necessarily seen as the type of player the Wildcats generally take. However, Kentucky needed guard production and Sheppard fit in perfectly next to the athletes in place and he has been a high-IQ ball handler who knows when to search for his own offense, knows how to find teammates for open looks, and can dominate his matchup defensively. At one point it looked like Sheppard could be a multi-year program piece for Kentucky, but it looks like this might be his only year in Lexington.
Of course, Kentucky doesn’t just get under the radar recruits. They also grabbed Rob Dillingham, arguably the top player in the 2023 class, and he has impressed as well with 14.3 points per game. Dillingham is a prototypical NBA guard prospect with a lot of length at 6’4”, explosive downhill ability, and a pure jumper. If not for Reed Sheppard there would be a lot more publicity on the freshman season Dillingham is having and he should not be forgotten.
To start the year Kentucky was dealing with frontcourt concerns with injuries and eligibility but they do now have 7’1” Aaron Bradshaw available and he is steadily looking better with every game. Normally known for their dominance on the offensive glass the Wildcats actually have been a below-average rebounding team this year in large part due to them playing undersized to start the season, though they are slowly getting bodies back and players like Bradshaw should help in that area.
In recent years Florida’s games against Kentucky have featured undersized Gators trying to content with the inside threat of massive Wildcat bigs, but this year the script is flipped. The Wildcats have excellent guard play and the best shooting roster of Calipari’s career, and it’s actually the Gators that could have the major edge when it comes to offensive rebounding. Both teams are still looking for marquee resume wins, and one team is going to come away with one on Saturday.
Florida and Kentucky will be tipping off on January 6 at 12:30 PM ET and it will be televised on ESPN.