After playing Texas A&M just last week in spirited battle for first place in the SEC the Florida Gators once again find themselves playing in a game where the winner will lead the league, this time when they tip off Saturday against the Kentucky Wildcats. Currently the Gators sit atop the SEC at 9-2, ahead of Kentucky and Arkansas who are 8-3. If the Wildcats were to beat the Gators they would take pole position as they’d have the tiebreak over the Gators, and they already hold the tiebreak over Arkansas should the Razorbacks also beat Auburn Saturday.
Notably, Florida and Kentucky will play a second time on the last day of the SEC regular season, and with both teams at the top of the league standings there could be some very interesting tiebreak scenarios in play if both teams were to end up tied and if they split the two matchups. Even if Kentucky were to win Saturday and take the SEC lead they have a much more challenging schedule the rest of the way in league having to still play Auburn, Vanderbilt, and Texas A&M, so while the Gators would love to win this game to remain at the top of standings it is far from a must-win. Taking place in Gainesville, it’s going to be yet another raucous crowd and a game that will have the attention of the college basketball universe, especially with Kentucky playing much better basketball as of late.
If you haven’t been following along, the Wildcats have had some ups, and if you ask their fans and national media, some serious downs. Starting the year just 5-4, some people would have you thinking the season was already lost, and it wouldn’t have been helped by seeing the tenor of head coach Mark Pope in press conferences who seemed defeated and emotional any time he saw a mic.
Though it seemed like the sky was falling in Lexington, truthfully, things weren’t all that bad. Yes, the team wasn’t playing at all like their reported $20+ million dollar roster should have been, and the record was 5-4, but none of the losses were inherently bad. Playing a difficult schedule as always, Kentucky fell to Louisville, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Gonzaga. Admittedly, the 94-59 loss to Gonzaga was somewhat of an embarrassment, but it wasn’t like the Wildcats had dropped any resume bomb games to buy game opponents. It didn’t happen all at once, but little by little the Wildcats started winning some better and better games and finding a bit of rhythm which has resulted in them sitting at 8-3 in the SEC and right there for an SEC regular season title, something that would have seemed impossible if you would have watched a post-loss press conference in non-conference play.
The Wildcats have seen their roster hit by some significant injuries which has really changed their style of play, and though it’s productive players that have been lost–the team has been playing well without them. Jaland Lowe, who was expected to be an offensive powerhouse in the backcourt, dislocated his shoulder on three separate occasions before ultimately having his season ended due to the injury. Jayden Quaintance, a player the Gators recruited heavily, was only able to play four games coming off an ACL injury last year before getting reinjured, and it isn’t known if he’ll be back this year. Kam Williams, a 6’8” three-and-D player, is also at risk of missing the rest of the season due to injury.
Leading the way in scoring for Kentucky is returning guard Otega Oweh, a physical downhill driver who was a key piece in the Wildcats’ win over the Gators a year ago. At 6’4” and 220 pounds he’s got a stocky frame and leverages that into being a powerful driver who is relentless in looking for gaps to get downhill. This caused the Gators issues last year, and they could have some big issues slowing him down this year as well. If he plays in the backcourt he’ll have a significant muscular advantage over Xaivian Lee, a player who has also struggled to keep drivers in front of him, and if he plays the wing (which he does most of the time) he’ll likely be guarded by Thomas Haugh, and while Haugh is a great defender, a much smaller, much lower center of gravity downhill driver is the kind of player he can struggle with. Just how the Gators choose to guard him will be interesting, and if Kentucky is going to win it probably starts with a big game from Oweh.
Saturday’s game will also be the return of guard Denzel Aberdeen who left the Gators following the National Championship season, reportedly for a significant bump in NIL payment. This was not received well by some of Florida’s fanbase, and the reception he receives Saturday will be one storyline to follow. Aberdeen’s production down the stretch of the season and in the NCAA Tournament played a key role in the Championship, though a player leaving for an SEC rival is never going to sit right with anyone. Initially it looked like Aberdeen would be playing a reserve role for the Wildcats as he didn’t start in the season opener, but since then has been a starter playing an important role in the backcourt. Averaging 12.3 points and 3.2 assists per game Aberdeen hasn’t been lighting up the scoreboard but he’s been a consistent contributor who has improved his shooting and has hit 39% of his threes in SEC play.
Aberdeen is actually second on the Wildcats in scoring which speaks to their style of play–it’s a rather equal opportunity offense that sees a lot of side to side ball movement and the chance for multiple players to get involved. This can be a strength at times, but it also speaks to the somewhat clunky roster build. Even though Kentucky had nearly unlimited money, the roster doesn’t always look like it–instead of using the huge dollars at their disposal to get some of the most explosive scorers available, Mark Pope chose depth, and instead spent millions on players that are bench pieces. Yes, this has helped them absorb injuries to three starters which would sink most teams in the country, but it also speaks to the fact they don’t have a clear star and a clear scorer that can quarterback the offense. Kentucky often has to work hard for buckets with multiple actions and plenty of passing, and though that can sometimes result in some pretty baskets, it also gives a lot of opportunities for defenses to recover and make plays. Florida should be well-suited to guard a lot of Kentucky’s actions and match up well outside of the challenging Oweh situation on the perimeter.
While Kentucky lacks some scoring upside, they are a capable defensive team and the improvements on that end have helped their consistency as of late. With good length and footspeed up and down the lineup the Wildcats do a good job of protecting the paint and if opponents get there they have a number of shotblockers. A lot of teams have struggled to score around the rim on Kentucky even if they get touches in close, but we’ll see just how that interior defense will do against the Gators who administer more pressure around the rim than just about anyone. When Kentucky is at their best they are turning stops on the defensive end into transition opportunities as they are much better on the break than they are in the halfcourt, and if the Gators start getting scores which also allow them to set their defense you could start to see some crooked runs that allow Florida to stretch big leads.
Kentucky’s X-factor is wing shooter Collin Chandler who is shooting 41% from three, but like many jumpshooting players, can get hot and cold. It seems like in every game he will score either 18 or 6 points depending on how much the ball finds him, and right now he’s on a hot streak after hitting 9-19 threes in the last three games.
In the frontcourt Kentucky has a few sizable players to battle Florida’s endless supply of length including 7’0”, 250 pound freshman Malachi Moreno, 6’10, 245 pound Brandon Garrison, and 6’11”, 225 pound Andrija Jelavic. This frontcourt isn’t super dominant offensively and they aren’t high usage players but they are all capable finishers around the rim, and they’ve also done a good job of controlling the glass–though Florida will give them their biggest challenge yet.
Whenever Florida plays Kentucky it always seems to turn into a wild game, and Saturday’s game could be no different especially with first place in the SEC on the line.
Florida and Kentucky will tip off Saturday, February 14th at 3 PM ET and it will be televised on ABC.