After an emotional double overtime win over Michigan the Florida Gators (8-3) will have a chance to keep the momentum rolling when they take on the Grambling State Tigers (2-8). This will be Florida’s final game before a short break for the holiday season and oftentimes these games can be taken lightly by the favored team, and the upcoming practices for the Gators will be focused on making sure they don’t take the Tigers lightly.
When it comes to evaluating Grambling State, don’t look too closely at their 2-8 record (their record at the time of this story–though they will have played one more game before taking on the Gators). The Tigers, as is the case with most teams in the Southwestern Athletic Conference, are forced to fund much of their school’s athletic department by playing as many “buy” games as possible. What does this look like functionally? The Tigers are yet to play a D-1 home game, and they have already played true road games against Colorado, Iowa State, Dayton, Washington State, and Drake–all challenging games that would be difficult for any mid-major opponent.
In the preseason SWAC poll the Tigers were picked to finish second–which speaks to the quality of the program and how the non-conference schedule isn’t indicative of what this team could be by March. They also had a share of the SWAC regular season title last year finishing 15-3 in league, though they lost a crushing 3-point game to Texas Southern in the SWAC Tournament finals to miss out on going to the NCAA Tournament.
Because Grambling State plays so many buy games on the road their players, and head coach Donte Jackson, know how to play the underdog and make for some upsets. Last year the Tigers knocked off Colorado with a decisive 9-point win, and they later took down Vanderbilt. That Vanderbilt team went on to beat the Gators twice. While a lot of the players from last year’s team are gone, there is institutional knowledge with the Grambling State program on how to have a chance against high-major opponents and they’ll try to catch the Gators sleeping on Friday.
To try and knock off teams with more talent on paper, Grambling State will try to junk up games as much as possible. They play extremely slowly to try and disrupt the rhythm of their opponents, with the added benefit of lower possession games making for a better chance of an upset. They’ll also mix in full court and three-quarter court presses, once again to try to be disruptive and to see if they can generate some cheap points through creating turnovers. When their opponents finally make it into the half court, Grambling State will primarily play an aggressive man defense but has started to throw in an even-front zone more heavily. Florida hasn’t seen many presses this season and Grambling State is likely to try to crank up the pressure, particularly with the turnover issues that Walter Clayton and Riley Kugel have shown from time to time. The Gators also haven’t seen a lot of zone, though Michigan did just mix in a bit of 2-3 and they handled it comfortably. It is difficult to rebound out of zones, and given the Gators’ ability to mash on the offensive glass, a zone could only amplify that even more.
Leading the way offensively for Grambling State is Kintavious Dozier, a 6’1” guard who has had an immediate impact for the Tigers since the start of his collegiate career at the junior college level. Dozier is averaging 14.5 points per game, largely as a downhill guard who is trying to get to the paint with every touch. He has had to play an even bigger role than expected for the Tigers since the team has had terrible luck with injuries. Jourdan Smith, a 6’7” transfer from Coastal Carolina, started the season strong averaging 9.0 points and 4.7 rebounds through the first four games before suffering an injury that he is yet to return from. The Tigers were also missing Antwan Burnett to start the season, a 6’5” junior college transfer who the staff thought would play a huge role. He just returned for his first game when the Tigers took on a very good Drake team and he had 15 points and 5 rebounds, so it looks like his return will be massive.
Ultimately this is a game the Gators should be able to handle with relative ease, but that doesn’t mean they can lose focus or take the Tigers lightly. Every year SWAC teams knock off high-major opponents, and the last game before the holidays after an emotional game with Michigan is a definite opportunity for the Gators to come out flat. Florida would love to keep the momentum rolling, and they’d especially love for Riley Kugel to get things going after several games of lackluster performances that saw him on the bench in crunch time. This could be an excellent game to get him back on track, so watch for the Gators to feature him with their offensive actions.
Florida and Grambling State will tip off December 22nd at 4 PM ET, so make sure you’re aware of the early start. It will be televised on SEC Network+.