Six straight losses.
An average margin of 17 points in the last three of those losses.
A rivalry so one-sided in recent history it’s almost starting to feel like, well, less of a rivalry.
The Florida State Seminoles have gotten everything they’ve wanted and more against Florida the last six seasons and this year’s iteration of the Gators will be doing everything possible to exorcise the demons and break the curse of an embarrassing string of losses.
In college basketball a non-conference matchup is never technically going to be the biggest game of the year for any team, but for the Gators in 2020 it just might. A win over the Seminoles would give them the confidence that they can beat the best teams in college basketball and would be a six-ton weight lifted off their shoulders.
A loss would be nothing short of demoralizing, and could make this group feel like the program hasn’t made many strides in six seasons.
Additionally, the fact of the matter is that for a lot of Florida fans it’s football first, second, and third and if the Gators drop a seventh consecutive rivalry game a lot of those casual fans will give a “well, here we go again” and then not pay attention again until March.
Florida shouldn’t be lacking for any motivation in this one and after playing great basketball against Boston College and Stetson they’ll feel about as good as they can entering the game. They also have five full days to prepare for whatever they want to throw at the Seminoles and hopefully by the time Saturday rolls around they’ll have a gameplan they feel confident in.
Florida State, on the other hand, played a spirited overtime game against Indiana on Wednesday and will have a bit less prep time. They started their season against North Florida which was a blowout win before taking on the Hoosiers in a game they were able to edge out. That game should give the Gators some valuable film and an idea of how they want to play against the Seminoles as there were some holes and exploitable elements of their game that presented themselves.
For starters, you should get to know the new faces on the Seminoles. Considering the Gators see them every season and Seminoles usually return a lot of faces you probably know their roster pretty well but there are a few key newcomers starting with 6’9”, 230 machine Scottie Barnes. In typical Florida State fashion he has fantastic size and athleticism, but he brings a unique skillset. Despite being 6’9” he has legitimately been their point guard, bringing the ball up the floor and initiating sets from the point position. He also defends opposing point guards where his vast wingspan makes him a defensive terror.
Sardaar Calhoun is another player to be aware of, a junior college transfer who was known as one of the best three-point shooters at that level a year ago. As is usually the case with Florida State they lack shooting and brought in Calhoun to help fill that void. While he brings shooting ability at 6’6” he’s also polished in a number of other ways offensively and has shown the ability to string together dribble moves to get all the way to the hoop.
Nathanael Jack is another JUCO product coach Leonard Hamilton has brought in, and Coach Hamilton is extremely high on him. He claimed in an interview that Jack was the best shooter he had ever coached, and though he didn’t get free for many looks against North Florida in their opener the Gators will have to be aware of his shooting ability. He didn’t get in against Indiana due to a minor injury, so it’s unknown what his status will be for Saturday.
Of course, you know Hamilton is always going to bring in players that are at LEAST seven feet tall, and you know he is going to go wherever it takes to find talent. This year, it’s 7’1” Tanor Ngom who transferred from Ryerson, a Canadian University. You may remember Ngom from a scrimmage that the Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett-led Duke team played against two offseasons ago where he was impressive (and also broke a bone in Alex O’Connell’s face from an inadvertent elbow). You might be thinking that because he played in Canada that he’s probably not much of a player, but it’s worth noting that out of high school the Senegal native’s final schools were Ryerson and UConn, so there were quality NCAA teams that were interested.
In terms of returning players you will be familiar with, Florida State is led by 6’5” senior MJ Walker. He plays with the expected level of toughness and physicality of a Seminole guard but this season looks to have finally added shooting touch to his game, hitting 5-11 of his threes so far. Shooting was always the hole in Walker’s skillset so if his jumper is for real he’s going to be a dangerous player.
When it comes to Florida State’s style of play, they’ve been a vintage Seminoles team that Florida and ACC fans alike have grown to love (joking, I of course mean “hate”).
In typical Florida State fashion, they have struggled offensively from a making shots standpoint and have instead relied upon their size and length to bully opponents on the offensive glass and get second chance opportunities. Through two games they have rebounded an astonishing 43% of their misses, currently third in the country but a number that would have easily led the nation a year ago.
Their size also manifests itself on the defensive side of the basketball as they are 18th in the country in block percentage. Between driving against long, athletic wings and then finishing around 7’1” Balsa Koprivica or Tanor Ngom the Seminoles are near impossible to get easy points against and that’s going to be an issue for the Gators. Raiquan Gray (6’8”, 260 pounds) is another imposing defender who moves his feet better than you think for a player of his stoutness and Anthony Polite (6’6”) and Malik Osborne (6’9”) further add disruptive length to their size of the floor.
This year the Seminoles have been switching more than past seasons, largely to keep Scottie Barnes at the point position defensively which accomplishes a few different things. For starters, his length at the top of the defense makes it extremely difficult for their opponents to initiate anything offensively. No one wants to screen him and risk running into a trap and if their offense commences with a pass into the high post for Princeton or Horns action he has the length to take away that pass entirely and put a stop to any defensive possession. As well, having Barnes playing at the point defensive allows him to get a head start on any fast break opportunities and with Florida State that is a regular occurrence. In fact, it’s really the key swingpoint to the game between them and the Gators.
So far this season 17% of Florida State’s offense has come in transition, well above the national average. Predictably given their athleticism, the fast break has gone extremely well. They’re shooting 58% from the field, or 1.2 points per possession. Their transition attack starts with the fact they’re so good on the defensive glass and get seemingly every rebound, and then push it up to an athlete like Scottie Barnes or MJ Walker and let them get all the way to the hoop. Transition is as valuable to Florida State as it is to any team in the country for this reason:
The Seminoles really struggle in half court defense.
While their numbers in transition look fantastic offensively, they are very lackluster in the half court when the game slows down. On these possessions they’re only shooting 37% from the field and putting up 0.8 points per possession. They’re also turning the ball over 13% of the time on half court possessions, nearly double the amount they turn it over in transition. As we speak the Seminoles are 228th in the country in half court offensive efficiency, showing a major area of weakness.
For that reason, the Gators need to do whatever possible to keep the Seminoles out of transition. Florida State is so much better on the run than they are running offense in the half court and if the Gators limit them to only a few transition opportunities and force them to score primarily in the half court they go from being a stellar offensive team to one that’s considerably below average. One way of accomplishing this would be to abandon offensive rebounding and instead start to turn back on defense the moment a shot goes up. Florida has been a decent offensive rebounding team to start the year with efforts from Colin Castleton, Scottie Lewis, Keyontae Johnson, and Anthony Duruji but against the Seminoles they very well may be better off abandoning offensive rebounding entirely and instead turning back, matching up, and taking away any run out opportunities.
Of course, the best way to eliminate transition opportunities is to put the ball through the hoop and make your opponent inbound the ball and that’s going to be another key for the Gators.
In their six seasons of darkness against Florida State their biggest problem has been an inability to score. The Seminoles have played an all out deny style of defense, taking away all available passes and challenging Florida’s ball handlers to score one on one. For Chris Chiozza and Andrew Nembhard that was far from their best skill and they struggled greatly against this defensive strategy. Joined in the backcourt by KeVaughn Allen and Noah Locke, two players that are below-average offensive creators, the point guards weren’t able to get any help.
This year, the Gators have a much better opportunity of handling that style of defense. Tre Mann is starting to look like the McDonald’s All-American that he was out of high school and his number one ability is beating his man one on one and making plays. It’s still going to be difficult for him to get free against a host of elite defenders in Florida State jerseys but he gives the Gators the best chance at individual creation they have had in a long, long while.
Joining him in the backcourt is Cleveland State transfer Tyree Appleby who is going to be undersized against the Florida State perimeter but has the ability to disorient defenders with a dizzying change of pace and a handle to negotiate around defenders. Considering the pressure Florida State is going to employ the Gators will likely need to have this pair out on the floor as much as possible.
A player looking to bounce back from a tough performance a year ago is junior Noah Locke. Though one of the best shooters in the country last year he was far from that against Florida State going 0-7 from three. Not a great individual creator and not a plus athlete this has a chance to be a tough matchup for Locke but the Gators will also desperately need his shotmaking to loosen up the Seminole pressure. He’s hitting 47% of his threes so far after hitting 43% last year so the Gators have to hope he’s ready to knock down jumpers on Saturday.
Another player looking to have a better performance against Florida State this time around is Scottie Lewis looked overwhelmed as a freshman last year. The Seminoles pushed him around with older, bigger wings and challenged Lewis to try to beat them with the dribble before converging on him and forcing turnovers. Lewis brings a level of athleticism that can match many of the explosive specimens on Florida State so he’ll need to show up to play.
If the Gators are going to come away with a win they’ll need their best player and leader Keyontae Johnson to dominate. Quietly averaging 20 points, 6 rebounds, and 2 assists per game so far this season he is looking every bit like the player that ended up on preseason player of the year watch lists and as a junior who has lost to Florida State twice he should be more motivated than anyone to get a win. Johnson is the only player to play well in last season’s meeting with 19 points and 4 rebounds, and will be Florida’s best chance at coming away with a win. He was the only player able to soften the defense with his ability to attack closeouts and get into the teeth of the defense and once again he’ll be required to do so for the Gators’ offense to get into rhythm.
This game will likely come down to two things for the Gators–transition defense and three-point shooting. If you take away Florida State’s transition attack they become a pedestrian offensive team really quickly, and if the Gators only have to defend in the half court they will fare much better than if they’re constantly trying to match up in transition.
Florida State’s length is going to make it tough to get baskets in the paint so the Gators are going to be challenged to shoot over the top of the defense. That’s going to largely come down to Tre Mann, Tyree Appleby, and Noah Locke to hit shots, though Keyontae Johnson and Scottie Lewis will both be challenged to hit catch and shoot attempts as well. Each one of those players mentioned has shown the ability to hit shots, but the Gators might need three or four of them to be “on” for them to have a chance to win.
While it’s still not a favorable matchup for the Gators they match up considerably better this year with the Seminoles than they have the last six seasons. They’ve got playmakers in Tre Mann and Tyree Appleby that were lacking, and they’ve got more length and athleticism with the insertion of Anthony Duruji, Colin Castleton, Niels Lane, and Samson Ruzhentsev. It’s going to be a battle on Saturday, and one you won’t want to miss.