Following wins against Stony Brook and Kennesaw State to start the season perfectly the Gators will have their toughest test yet taking on a pesky Florida Atlantic team that will look to compete at the top of Conference USA.
The Owls are led by Dusty May who was assistant at Florida under Mike White before departing for Boca Raton and the Florida Atlantic job. May was in charge of the offense and special situations and the Gators had success in those areas with him at the helm. Now at Florida Atlantic he has been steadily building the program from a team generally finishing in the lower middle of the pack to one that will look to compete at the top with UAB, Western Kentucky, and North Texas.
In four years at Florida Atlantic Dusty May has a record of 66-57 and his last year was his best with the program so far with the Owls going 19-15.
This is May’s first time coming to Gainesville since leaving for Florida Atlantic, and he deserves a warm welcome from Gator fans for his excellent work during his time there.
Analytic tools are very high on Florida Atlantic this year and they are currently the 85th ranked team on KenPom. On one hand, this is a team that absolutely has the ability to beat a high major opponent on the road, and with an 85th ranking on KenPom, that’s not a major upset. As a reference, 85th in KenPom would have easily finished ahead of four SEC teams a year ago. While Florida Atlantic will present challenges for the Gators as a scary mid-major team that is certainly capable of knocking them off, it also means a sneaky-good resume opportunity for the Gators and if they are able to get a win this is one that could possibly even end up as a quadrant-2 game in the committee’s NET system.
Florida Atlantic’s biggest strength is their offense as they have some talented scorers on the roster to go along with a bright offensive mind in Dusty May. They like to shoot a lot of threes, though they get to these shots in a different way than a lot of teams currently do. May has always recruited talented post players who can pressure defenses when they catch it on the block, and he’ll generate deep post catches for these players before running screens away from the ball to free up three-point shooters. The added benefit of this is that their post players also can go to work knowing that the help is occupied and a double team isn’t coming, so the Owls are able to simultaneously create options for quality looks at the rim and on the perimeter.
May’s teams have also been excellent on the glass, creating extra possessions for their offense with relentless offensive rebounding and putting an end to defense possessions on the other end with stout defensive rebounding.
The Owls are 0-1 in division one games to start the season, falling to Ole Miss 80-67. A tough SEC road environment wasn’t an easy way to start off their campaign, but it means they’ll be at least somewhat prepared for another big-time atmosphere at Florida.
One of the big storylines in this game was the absence of point guard Michael Forrest who is arguably the most talented player on the Owls’ roster. Coach May had listed Forrest as unavailable for the game against Ole Miss, and said he was day-to-day moving forward. It’s unknown what has led to this status, but whether or not he plays will have huge implications on this game. Forrest has loads of experience under his belt entering his fifth season of college basketball with 122 games played and 86 starts and he just came off the best season of his career averaging 13 points and 3 assists per game while shooting 35% for the three-point line.
Arguably the best player for Florida Atlantic against Ole Miss was Vladislav Goldin who finished with 19 points on efficient 9-13 shooting while also chipping in 9 boards–6 of which came on the offensive end. He presents matchup issues as he stands at a hulking 7’1” and 240 pounds, something you don’t always expect to see from mid-major teams. Goldin started his career at Texas Tech before coming to Florida Atlantic and he’s a perfect fit for May’s inside-out offensive attack. We know that Colin Castleton is a key cog in Florida’s game plan on both the offensive and defensive end and the matchup with Goldin could very well be the most important element of this game.
As mentioned earlier May’s offense creates a lot of three-point opportunities and the biggest beneficiary of those looks is returning starter Alijah Martin. Martin hit 40% of his threes last season on heavy volume and had a great start to this season going 3-5 and he’s someone the Gators need to be locked on in whenever the ball gets entered in the post. The post entry will often trigger actions where Martin runs off screens and when that happens he becomes the most important offensive player for the Owls and the Gators will need to find a way to be attached.
A name you might find familiar on Monday is guard Jalen Gaffney who the Gators once upon a time recruited heavily out of high school. He ended up going to UConn where he spent three seasons largely coming off the bench, and when he entered the transfer portal May’s previous relationship helped get him to Boca Raton. His defensive tools are there but there are still things he needs to learn offensively and Coach May should be able to help him in that area, though he’s not a huge factor yet only playing 16 minutes against Ole Miss.
For the Gators, the key to this game is going to be their defensive execution. They weren’t great on that end against Kennesaw State and allowed them to pour in points and keep the game close for much of the second half, and Florida Atlantic is a considerable step up in offensive talent from Kennesaw State so if the Gators were to struggle in a similar way then they could find themselves in serious trouble. Both point guards, Kyle Lofton and Trey Bonham, had issues against point guard Terrell Burden and Michael Forrest is a similar player as a 6’0-ish slippery, veteran guard so if he is active he could be a concern if Florida’s ball handlers aren’t up to the challenge.
This is Florida’s biggest challenge of the season so far and it should be an exciting game Monday.