After one of their most complete 40-minute efforts of the season the Gators (6-3) will look to keep the momentum rolling as they head to Lakeland for the Florida Tip-Off against East Carolina (6-4). This will be considered a “semi-home” game for the Gators in the eyes of the NCAA, with minor implications from a resume evaluation standpoint.
When Florida scheduled this game with the Pirates they thought they were going to get a team that would finish somewhere in the 100-140 range of the NET rankings and give the Gators a win with more value than beating up on a low-major opponent in a true home setting. East Carolina brought back some quality pieces from last year and they entered this season ranked 130th in KenPom and picked to finish 5th in the American Athletic Conference. Unfortunately, things haven’t gone to plan for the Pirates and they now sit at 266th in the NET, and according to KenPom are now predicted to finish 12th in the AAC. If these results hold, this game isn’t going to be as valuable to the Gators as they once thought, but at this point they simply need to play the opponents in front of them and come up with good results.
Losses to USC Upstate and Northeastern are the reason the Pirates tanked in the metrics and they’re yet to pick up any massive wins, though they were able to beat a stout UNC Wilmington team 74-66. In their most recent game they went toe to toe with South Carolina losing 68-62, showing they can be competitive against high-major opponents. This was also one of the first times the Pirates have been totally healthy, so they are almost certainly a better team today than their 266th NET ranking would suggest.
Perhaps the most impressive part of the job that head coach Mike Schwartz has done at East Carolina is do something that seems nearly impossible at the mid-major level these days–keep your best players from hitting the transfer portal. That starts with guard RJ Felton who scored 14 points per game last season and returned to the Pirates for his junior year and is now taking his game to the next level. Felton is averaging 16.2 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 1.9 steals this season, doing just about everything on the floor. At 6’3” and 209 pounds he’s a muscular guard that can bully just about any matchup–whether it’s a smaller guard, or a bigger player that Felton can use leverage against to get where he wants to on the floor. It might be physical drives that Felton is most known for but he has also been a capable 36% three-point shooter giving him a well-rounded offensive arsenal. You also have to be aware of Felton on the offensive glass as he has been one of the most productive offensive rebounding guards in the country, often getting to crash the boards without a box out as opposing guards aren’t used to having to find a body on every missed shot. If East Carolina is going to give the Gators a scare, look for Felton to play a huge role in it.
Outside of Felton, the strength of East Carolina comes in their frontcourt of Ezra Ausar and Brandon Johnson, two players that are proven producers for the Pirates that returned. Both are bruisers that can dominate the paint offensively with post ups and create second chances with rebounding and the Gators have had issues with these kinds of players so far this season–and Ausar and Johnson are certainly the best mid-major frontcourt the Gators have seen so far. Ausar is listed at 6’8”, 247 pounds while Johnson comes in at 6’8”, 222 pounds, and these are the style of bigs the Gators will see a lot in the SEC this year–and the style of bigs that gave them a lot of problems last season. Currently Johnson is averaging 14.6 points and 8.6 rebounds per game while Ausar is just behind him at 14.3 points and 5.8 rebounds per game and these two will often play together in a way that could actually match up decently with Florida’s post players. The Gators will still have a massive length advantage though we have seen Florida’s post players get pushed around a bit by more physical players with lower centers of gravity, and that’s exactly what they’ll deal with in East Carolina’s bigs. Johnson is also starting to stretch things out to the three-point line and while he’s only hitting 32% he can get hot, and the threat of his shooting is enough to concern a defense. Another concern that Florida’s frontcourt will need to have is foul trouble. Ausar is a foul-drawing ninja who is currently 11th in the country in fouls drawn per 40 minutes at an astonishing 7.8, and considering that Florida’s frontcourt has struggled with foul trouble all season they could start to pile up the whistles trying to contain Ausar.
East Carolina’s X-factor is guard Bobby Pettiford who is still getting his feet under him but is loaded with talent. If the name sounds familiar it’s because Pettiford spent two years at Kansas and while he didn’t play a huge role he was still a quality 4-star recruit and one that is bringing some juice to the Pirates roster in the portal. Coming from a situation at Kansas where he was largely a complementary player to a situation at East Carolina where he has been given a lot more opportunity it seems he is still getting situated, but he has the talent to have an explosive game if he gets loose.
Reading about East Carolina’s talent you might be wondering how they suffered some tough losses this season and tumbled down the rankings. They can score and they can rebound but the deficiencies have come on the other end where they have struggled to guard. The Pirates have not been comfortable on their own end and have been searching for options through a couple of different looks, and right now nothing is sticking. This will be their biggest concern going against Florida, and with an extended prep time they’ll hope to come up with something that can slow the Gators down.
It should also be noted that when East Carolina suffered their two bad losses to USC Upstate and Northeastern they were missing Brandon Johnson–which could speak to just how important he is to the Pirates.
With East Carolina now fully healthy they’ll be a challenging opponent for the Gators who will be looking to carry on momentum from a decisive win over Richmond and hope to string some wins together to close out their non-conference season.
Florida and East Carolina tip off Thursday, December 14th at 7 PM ET and the game will be televised on SEC Network.