Heading towards the close of a dominant regular season the Florida Gators will have their chance to lock up the SEC regular season title with multiple games remaining when they take on John Calipari and the Arkansas Razorbacks Saturday.
With three games remaining for each team in the SEC the Gators have all but sealed the regular season title at 13-2, two games ahead of second place who is 11-4. That team? The Arkansas Razorbacks. That means a Florida win would eliminate any possibility of the Razorbacks catching them, and the Gators would lock up the banner with two inconsequential (at least to SEC standings) games remaining. Of course, coercely–Arkansas has the chance to get right back in the mix with a win as they would then be just one game behind but with the tiebreak should the Gators drop a game and the Razorbacks win out.
Florida isn’t just looking for an SEC regular season title and positioning in the SEC Tournament–they’re looking to improve their seed in the NCAA Tournament. Right now the Gators are a consensus 3-seed, and by all reputable analysis they are the top 3-seed. That means they don’t need much to make a jump into 2-seed range, but in an SEC that has been way down than the year prior the opportunities to get marquee wins won’t present themselves that much more, and Arkansas will be one of the last quality resume wins until the later stages of the SEC Tournament. Right now the Razorbacks are 18th in the NET meaning this is a quad-1 game for the Gators and one that they’d love as they push towards a 2-seed.
In some ways, Arkansas’ season on the whole has been similar to the Gators. Florida is 22-6 overall and Arkansas is 21-7, and much like the Gators, Arkansas hasn’t lost any bad games but hasn’t stacked up a lot of big wins. Their losses have come to Duke, Houston, Michigan State, Auburn, Georgia, Kentucky, and Alabama–none of which are head scratchers. They were able to do a bit more in non-conference play than Florida beating Louisville and Texas Tech, so in a lot of ways their resume is closer to the Gators than many would expect.
Where things differ greatly, however, is in the metrics. Right now Florida’s resume isn’t super strong with wins but the metrics absolutely love the Gators, with several having the Gators as high as the 4th best team in the country. Metrics don’t see Arkansas in the same range, with most having them in the 17-19th range with KenPom, the most commonly cited metric, having them at 17th. Dinged by their metric profile, Arkansas is currently a 5-seed, a dangerous one at that, but they would really like a marquee win like one over Florida in order to get a seed line bump.
Last season, Calipari’s first in Arkansas, was a wild ride for the Razorbacks. They were off to a slow start in SEC play having lost 5 in a row and 6 of 7 at one point, despite their awfully talented roster. However, things clicked late (also coinciding with the return of Boogie Fland) and the Razorbacks had a bit of a run in the NCAA Tournament making a Sweet Sixteen. That team struggled offensively but used their athleticism to dominate on the other end, which has been a common theme of the Calipari coaching era. However, this team is totally different. The Razorbacks are currently 4th in the country in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric and much of their success comes from the ability to score, with their 49th ranked defense being what drags them down from time to time.
One of the biggest stories of Arkansas’ season has been the play of point guard Darius Acuff. A heralded recruit coming in, some even reported that part of the reason Boogie Fland chose to leave was due to Acuff coming in and Arkansas’ staff knowing he would be the guy. Whether true or not, Acuff has been Arkansas’ leader right away putting up gaudy numbers averaging 22.2 points and 6.2 assists per game, absolutely remarkable stats to be putting up as a freshman in the SEC. It has been an absolutely monumental year for freshmen with Cam Boozer, AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, Mikel Brown, and many others having incredible first year campaigns, and in a lot of ways that has covered up what Acuff has been doing and in most years he’d be in a shoe-in for freshman of the year. Acuff has been a true do-it-all machine as a 6’3” point guard, as offensively he can either get to the rim effortlessly and finish with power or finish, and he can also hang out on the perimeter where he has been one of college basketball’s best shooters hitting 43% of his threes on just under 6 assists per game. Seeing a freshman guard stacking up points like this you might think he’s just a scorer, but that isn’t the case. 71st in the country in assist rate, Acuff can also play the true point guard role of getting teammates involved and creating quality shots for others and his work as a distributor would be worth heavy credit even if he wasn’t also one of the best scorers in college basketball. Florida has prided itself on the ability to slow down elite guards and Boogie Fland loves taking on this challenge and this will be arguably his toughest yet. Also, given how he may have been nudged out in order to make room for Acuff–this one could be a bit personal.
Another freshman that’s giving Arkansas excellent production is guard Maleek Thomas, a rangy 6’5” athlete who has hit 41% of his threes on the season, and, wait for it–48% of his threes in SEC play, and he provides a lot of space for Acuff to operate as any time his defender leaves to help it’s a gamble. Thomas’ 48% from three in SEC play is first in the league so sticking with him will also be a priority for the Gators.
If you’re looking for reasons why this doesn’t look like a traditional John Calipari team, it probably starts with the fact that they aren’t that imposing in the frontcourt, and it may be hurting them on the defensive side as well. Calipari has generally loved having an endless supply of run-and-jump NBA bigs, but this year they went away from that strategy. They did try to get one player of this archetype in the portal in Malique Ewin who came over from a tragic Florida State team, and while he’s been adequate he hasn’t been the difference maker Calipari has usually had at center. SEC veteran Trevon Brazile who started his career as more of a perimeter forward has bulked up and now plays a lot of minutes at center, and that can really help Arkansas’ offense but he isn’t always the best defender in pick and roll–though he’s a very talented and anticipatory shot blocker.
Something interesting to note about how Arkansas plays offense is the fact that they simply do not turn the ball over. They are currently 1st in the country in offensive turnover percentage, and this could be a challenge for the Gators who really rely on points off turnovers that they can get in transition. How much they look for steals against an Arkansas team that doesn’t relinquish many will be something to watch.
Going back to Arkansas’ frontcourt and the fact they don’t have the traditional Calipari monsters, it’s also notable that the Razorbacks are 223rd in the country in defensive rebounding and they can be vulnerable when it comes to giving up second chance points.
Both Florida and Arkansas are teams that are all about transition play and getting up and down the floor so look for this to be a high-scoring affair. Arkansas relies on much more from their backcourt while the Gators get tons from their frontcourt, and whichever unit is more successful could be the winning team.
Florida and Arkansas will tip off Saturday, February 28th at 8:30 PM ET and it will be televised on ESPN.