After handing the #1 team in the country a 30-point loss the Florida Gators (14-1, 1-1 SEC) will get a chance to really get the momentum rolling when they head to Arkansas Saturday to take on the Razorbacks (currently 11-3, 0-1 SEC–though they will have a home game against Ole Miss between this article publishing and the game with Florida). In a league as challenging as the SEC there are no games expected to be easy, but if you’re looking for an opportunity for the Gators to go on a run–this could be it. According to KenPom Florida will be favored to win in their next five contests and that will start when they take on an Arkansas team that is yet to fully get their footing following a coaching change in the offseason.
That coaching change? Bringing in Kentucky’s John Calipari.
One of the biggest stories of the college basketball offseason was the dominoes that fell late in the window where coaches usually move. SMU, making the leap to the ACC, wanted to make a splash and in doing so hired Andy Enfield from USC. USC then hired Arkansas’ Eric Musselman who was starting to feel uncomfortable after two seasons finishing below expectations. Arkansas then stepped up huge in NIL assets in order to lure John Calipari from Kentucky, a move that gave the Razorbacks the splash hire they wanted and gave Calipari a chance at a reset after tensions were starting to build in Kentucky.
(Kentucky then hired Mark Pope from BYU and looks to be having great success, and the vacancy in BYU was filled by Kevin Young, a prominent NBA assistant who was brought in as part of a massive fundraising effort in Provo that had enough money to also gain the commitment of top 2026 player AJ Dybantsa. As you can see, the dominoes from SMU making a move really shifted the entire sport).
So far things are off to a measured start in the Calipari era. They are 11-3, though their schedule has not been particularly challenging. Their best win has come over Michigan by 2 points on a neutral site, with their next most impressive win being a 3-point win over Miami on the road, with Miami currently sitting 113th in the country in KenPom. Their losses have come to Baylor, Illinois, and most recently Tennessee (a 76-52 blowout), so they haven’t taken a bad loss, but they haven’t been as competitive as they’d like against quality competition.
Looking at the roster there is a mix of players Calipari brought from Kentucky as well as some portal and high school additions.
Adou Thiero, DJ Wagner, and Zvonimir Ivisic are key pieces from last year’s Kentucky team that followed Calipari.
Coming from the high school ranks are Boogie Fland, Karter Knox, and Billy Richmond–all heralded recruits that play a significant part of the rotation.
Coming from the transfer portal were Johnell Davis (FAU) and Jonas Aidoo (Tennessee).
This means that Saturday’s game will see Florida Atlantic’s backcourt playing against each other with Alijah Martin looking across from Johnell Davis. While things have been going well for Martin at Florida you unfortunately can’t say the same for Davis. At Florida Atlantic Martin was known more for his defense while Davis was known as the scorer–but you wouldn’t know that by the production at their new schools. Martin is averaging 16.1 points for the Gators while Davis has struggled to find his rhythm averaging just 8.4. After being in the starting lineup for the opening weeks of the season he came off the bench against Tennessee and while he still played a lot of minutes, much of that can be chalked up to the fact that Arkansas essentially only has 9 players on their roster and will play all of them.
Considering that at this point of his career Calipari is pretty committed to his style, the fact that he brought most of his staff from Kentucky, and the fact he brought multiple players and as similar roster building strategy–Arkansas is currently facing some of the same issues that Kentucky was in Calipari’s final years there. Their offense is stagnant and struggling to create good shots, and while their defense is okay–they don’t have the same level of NBA athletes they were once getting to clamp things down on the wing. Johnell Davis was one of the players expected to help with the offensive load but he hasn’t found his fit in Calipari’s system and his lack of scoring punch has hurt the Razorbacks. Arkansas is 57th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and right now they’re able to get some points in transition but when the game slows they struggle to create much in the halfcourt and it’s going to be a focus of the Gators to take away the fast break. Florida is coming off an outstanding defensive performance against a Tennessee team that has been much better than Arkansas by the numbers and they’ll hope to replicate that effort Saturday.
Leading the way offensively for Arkansas is a surprising name–one of the Kentucky transfers, Adou Thiero. Thiero was known as a defensive player who didn’t have much offensive upside while with the Wildcats but has found new life in Arkansas averaging 16.9 points. A 6’8” forward, Thiero can find some nice matchups against heavier players that he has a speed advantage over and he can use that speed to get to the rim with regularity and finish or draw fouls.
Freshman Boogie Fland has been a much-needed spark for Arkansas averaging 15.6 points and 5.9 assists while shooting 38% from three and he’s looking like a future NBA player. At 6’2” and 175 pounds Fland has adequate size for the position but compliments it with outstanding speed and ball control, and the smooth shooting stroke earns him some extra space when he goes to drive the lane.
Defensively the Razorbacks aren’t going to throw anything exotic at you but they play rock solid man to man defense that allows their individual athletes to dominate their matchups and make plays in the passing lanes with their athleticism to come away with steals. Considering how important transition opportunities are to Arkansas as their best opportunity to score the Gators will need to limit their live ball turnovers.
Overall, the key to this game for Florida will be keeping the defensive focus they did from Tennessee–particularly in transition. If the Gators are able to keep Arkansas out of transition with their defensive floor balance while also limiting live ball turnovers it will be difficult for the Razorbacks to create enough points to keep up.
Florida and Arkansas will tip off on January 11th at 4 PM ET, and it will be televised on ESPN.