Florida’s SEC schedule is about to kick off, and it’s not going to be an easy road. Florida is about to see Alabama, LSU, and Auburn, all three who are top-20 KenPom teams, and they need to make sure they get off on the right foot before going through that tough stretch.
Their one opportunity to get their rhythm before taking on some of the SEC’s best will be on Wednesday when the Gators (9-3) take on the Ole Miss Rebels (8-4) in Oxford. Head Coach Kermit Davis and the Rebels have been a pesky out for a couple of years now, but they’ve had a bit of a tough start to the 2021-22 season, and this is a game the Gators would love to have before taking on some of the league’s heavy hitters.
Kermit Davis didn’t challenge his team much in the non-conference playing one of the easiest schedules in the country–making their 8-4 record a bit of a disappointment. Marquette handed Ole Miss their first loss of the season, and Boise State gave them their second. Those are two decent opponents, but they’re definitely games Ole Miss would love to have back. Then things got worse, with the Rebels getting blasted by Western Kentucky 71-48 in a game where they could get nothing going offensively. Their fourth loss of the season was their first, falling to former Gators Ques Glover and the Samford Bulldogs, a team currently 236th in KenPom.
There isn’t much on Ole Miss’ resume on the positive side to make up for the losses as their best win is over Memphis, who we’re still not really sure how good they are. After that their best win would be Dayton, and then it quickly falls off to wins over teams like Middle Tennessee State and Elon.
With things having not gone too well for Ole Miss this season it’s a game the Gators desperately need to get off to a good start to SEC play. Plus, with some of the bad losses the Gators took earlier, they don’t have much margin for error moving forward to keep their resume looking presentable. Florida is probably the best team that Ole Miss has played so far this season, so how prepared they will be for a high-major opponent will be a question and the Gators, who have played a more difficult schedule, may be much more prepared for SEC play.
If you’re looking for an overall theme of Ole Miss basketball this year it has been a solid defense but a very underwhelming offense. Kermit Davis always has responsible defensive teams that can confuse the opposition with a few unique coverages and zones mixed in, but offensively things haven’t gone particularly well since the talented guards that were there before him like Breein Tyree, Terence Davis, and Devontae Shular are gone. Things have been a grind on that side of the floor and it was a big part of the reason they suffered a lopsided loss to Western Kentucky and were frustrated by Boise State.
Ole Miss did, however, get some reinforcements last week as 5’9” freshman Daeshun Ruffin returned from injury and immediately started making an impact offensively putting up 12, 19, and 17 point games which was a boost the Rebels desperately needed. Ruffin is a shifty guard with a lot of speed and at only 5’9” he can be slippery for some defenders to stay in front of him. A couple of Florida’s perimeter players have had very difficult times keeping guards like this in front of them this season so if there is a player that could give the Gators trouble it’s definitely Ruffin. They’ve been a different team offensively with Ruffin in the lineup so while their numbers before him have been putrid (191st in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency) those numbers don’t speak to what the team is now with Ruffin running the show.
Even with Ruffin the Rebels aren’t an above average offensive team without a lot of other weapons, particularly from behind the arc. Ole Miss shoots only 30.5% from three, 280th in the country, and that allows teams to pack the paint and dare them to shoot.
One player who can shoot it is Ole Miss’ leading scorer Jarkel Joiner who is averaging 14.8 points and 3.0 assists per game. He’s also shooting 36% from three which isn’t a fantastic number, but at over 5 attempts per game for a team that struggles to shoot it, he’s an important threat. While his numbers have come on decent volume this season it is worth noting he’s about a 28% three-point shooter in his first three years of college, so the 36% from three could also come down to earth, but the Gators still would likely be wise to treat him with respect from deep.
Even though the Rebels haven’t been good offensively the season it doesn’t mean they won’t be able to sting the Gators. Kermit Davis has shown in past matchups with Florida that he can pick apart their hedging ball screen defense and coming off a break he’ll almost certainly have a gameplan in mind for how he wants to attack a Florida defense that has been far from perfect.
The strength of Ole Miss has been their defense and they can show a number of looks on that end that can slow teams down as they try to figure out what they’re seeing. The Rebels are still primarily a man-to-man team but they mix in both 2-3 and 1-3-1 zones which the Gators have seen in the last couple of seasons. They’ll switch between these defenses tactically throughout the game, sometimes even possession to possession, and that keeps offenses guessing and wasting shot clock as they figure out exactly what they’re seeing and what they want to do to attack it. This will be a tough prep for the Gators who will have to know they’ll get the kitchen sink thrown at them, and if you’re looking for a bit of cause for concern in this game it could be the junk defenses Ole Miss could employ. Florida hasn’t seen much zone at all through the non-conference portion of the season so when Ole Miss comes out in 2-3 or 1-3-1 it will pretty much be the first zone the Gators have seen this season. In the last couple of seasons the Gators have done really well against zone defense but having gone a month without seeing it there is a chance their zone offense is far from polished.
Florida’s offense has been the question for the last couple of games and while there’s still plenty of work to be done on that end, the defense is going to be the key to this battle with Ole Miss. Daeshun Ruffin and Jarkel Joiner are the kind of guards that the Gators have struggled to contain this season and Kermit Davis has always entered games with Florida with a good plan offensively. As well, there has to be some credit given to Florida who has looked a bit better offensively the last couple of games, earning a bit of confidence that it won’t be the biggest question mark entering every single game. Outside of Ruffin and Joiner the Rebels don’t have many weapons so if Florida can keep them on the perimeter and play some appropriate point of attack defense, they should have success in this one.
The game is on Wednesday, December 29th at 5 PM ET, and it will be televised on SEC Network.