After several stoppages it finally looks like the Gators are finally able to take the court again on Tuesday against the Arkansas Razorbacks. Florida was actually cleared and ready to go on Saturday when they were supposed to play Texas A&M but the Aggies, who had missed several games in a row due to positive tests, didn’t clear protocol. Ultimately, that means an even longer layoff for the Gators but one that should be over for Tuesday barring something unfortunate.
Arkansas looks much different in the last two seasons since Eric Musselman took over. With previous coach Mike Anderson it was toughness and physicality that defined Razorback basketball but under Musselman it has been free and loose, with “space and pace” being a motif he loves to repeat.
Musselman has brought a distinctly, well…unique feel to SEC coaching. You may have seen photos circulating of him with recruits visiting Arkansas where they will recreate famous NBA photos… but with the player and Musselman playing the parts of the original players involved.
Then, the other day Musselman came to practice dressed in a UPS uniform, preaching to his players that it was “time to deliver.”
It’s certainly a unique approach to SEC coaching, but one that has had solid early results. He has had great success recruiting both high school players and transfers to Arkansas and after a 20-12 first season a year ago he has this year’s team at 15-5. The Razorbacks made it through their cupcake non-conference schedule (something Musselman has scheduled wherever he has gone) unscathed with their best win over North Texas, only to open SEC play 2-4. Since then the Razorbacks have turned it up of late winning their last five SEC basketball games. They also had a good showing in the Big 12-SEC Challenge, but ultimately fell just short of knocking off a very good Oklahoma State team. Their last two wins have come over Mississippi State and Kentucky, two teams that Florida lost to, so the Gators should have plenty of respect for Arkansas.
The Razorbacks are opening as favorites by three points, but that might not even tell the whole story.
Basketball statistician Evan Miyakawa has done extensive research on how COVID pauses have affected college basketball teams, and the results have been rather interesting. The numbers concluded that a 11-14 day shutdown is worth a 2.5 point decrease in a team’s expected outcome, so perhaps the Gators should be 5.5 point dogs in this one.
With Arkansas the Gators are going to have to deal with a balanced offensive attack that sports five players all scoring in double digits. Arkansas is a team that doesn’t run many set plays, instead pushing the ball in transition for an easy look before settling into a motion continuity offense if nothing is there. They don’t feature any one player in particular and they play more out of concepts than out of structure, and that can be difficult for teams to prepare for.
Arkansas is one of the fastest teams in college basketball who takes over one out of every five of their shots in transition. Their most efficient offense is always going to come when they are pushing the ball on the break, so whatever the Gators can do to match up and slow down that attack will help greatly as they try to limit the Razorbacks’ opportunities.
While he’s not someone who Arkansas runs a lot of plays for the Razorbacks are led by guard Moses Moody, a player who the Gators recruited heavily before losing out to Musselman. He’s an extremely talented 6’6” guard who can handle the ball with finesse but most importantly–he can shoot. While his current percentage of 37% behind the arc is solid, it probably doesn’t even speak to how good of a shooter he is. Moody is known to heat up and if he hits one or two shots early, watch out.
Jalen Tate might be their next most important player as another big 6’6” guard who might not be quite the scorer Moody is, but a much better passer. Arkansas likes to move the ball quickly and not have the rock stick in anyone’s hands but if there is someone who is going to take a few bounces to probe the defense and use a ball screen, it’s Tate. Easily the best passer on the team, it won’t just be Florida’s primary defender who has to look alive when Tate has the ball, it’s the weak side defenders who will have to stick with shooters and look for cutters trying to get loose.
Arkansas is at their best when they run and to do that they need to get a rebound and the player most responsible for those defensive boards is California transfer Connor Vanover. The whole rebounding thing is made much easier for Vanover due to the fact that, well, he’s 7’3”. The tallest center the Gators have seen this year, he’s going to cause carnage on the inside with his length and could give Florida problems in a number of ways. For starters, Florida’s offense has often centered around Colin Castleton and his ability to score. While Castleton has had a size advantage over most players he’s matched up with this year, that will certainly not be the case against Vanover. Florida has also had big problems on the defensive glass on a number of occasions this year and Vanover could definitely wreak havoc there.
Defensively Arkansas wanted to play primarily man to man defense, something that Musselman has always preferred, but recently they have gone to a rather unique alignment of a 2-3 zone. The top two players in the zone play extremely high, trapping ball handlers and forcing the ball out of their hands. It often forces a long pass to the wing which isn’t one they’re going to try and steal, but one that often has enough hang time that their whole defense has the opportunity to move on the flight of the ball and get into position. It’s a fairly bizarre way to play a 2-3 zone but with their length they’re able to do it effectively and it has given opposing teams problems this season.
For Florida a big key to the game will be to try to get their feet under them and play with a high level of cohesion despite the fact they just came off a long layoff. Arkansas is going to challenge their connectedness defensively by pushing the ball in transition and then making reads in the half court and if Florida isn’t communicating there will be big opportunities for breakdowns. Arkansas is a good pick and roll team, something that has been the bane of Florida’s defense, and if they don’t compete on those plays there could be trouble.
Arkansas is also going to run that funky zone at them and they need to be prepared. Zone defenses feast on offenses that lack focus and if the Gators aren’t moving the ball and moving bodies with purpose then they could have a rough time.
The Razorbacks are a talented team with a lot of length that have given lots of good teams trouble. This will be no easy task for the Gators and they’ll have to play a complete 40 minutes to come away with a win.