Florida has had a tough two weeks going 1-3, most recently with a painstaking loss to Mississippi State where the Gators never fully felt like they had their rhythm or total grasp of the game.
Sadly, things aren’t going to get any easier for them as on Tuesday they welcome the Tennessee Volunteers, the consensus pick to win the SEC. Sporting a mix of proven veterans and shiny new five-star talent they’re loaded up and down the roster and bring a distinct style of play that has allowed the Vols to stay at the top of the league for the past couple of years. With the Gators hurting over their past four games the Volunteers are going to see blood in the water and if Florida doesn’t bring their A-Game this could get ugly quick.
Let’s get to know the Volunteers a bit.
Starting at point guard they have Uruguayan product Santiago Vescovi who joined the team midway through last season and was immediately thrust into the starting point guard role where he brought a flashy mix of playmaking and scoring. He’s prone to a wild turnover here and there but he’s an Andrew Nembhard-type passer who has also been lighting it up from three at 42% on over five attempts per game.
Victor Bailey is a veteran shooting guard who has mostly been starting, though the last few games coach Rick Barnes has gone a little more in the direction of the five-star wings he was bringing off the bench. He’s a responsible two-guard who cuts hard off the ball and sets great screens in their offense. Defenses normally don’t have him as a top-three threat on the Vols and he can get left open and when he does he can hit shots and punish them.
Josiah-Jordan James was a five-star in 2019 who had a bit of a difficult freshman season but in year two is showing his talent as Tennessee’s starting small forward. Long at 6’6” and bouncy he has a mismatch over most wings that have to guard him and he knows it. James isn’t a player that hangs around the perimeter, he’s looking to get the ball by the rim and finish.
Things start looking REALLY good when you look at their frontcourt.
At power forward, Yves Pons is as exciting a player as there is in college basketball. The 6’6” forward from France is “arguably” the best athlete in the country, but I put “arguably” in quotes as just a formality, as it really isn’t even close. Pons is incredibly explosive and when he soars above the rim for a block or dunk you could swear he’s floating in midair because of how long it takes him to hit the ground. What makes Pons so special is that not only does he have out of this world athleticism, but he knows how to functionally use it. Pons is a devastating defender, both clamping down on his own check as well as protecting the entire rim with his length and leaping ability. He’ll be a load to handle for the Gators.
Rounding out the starting lineup is familiar face John Fulkerson, a senior leader who many have as a preseason All-SEC player. Fulkerson is a physical back to the basket five man, though he has shown some ability to face up from the free throw line area. He’s not that big, only 6’9” and 215 pounds, but he plays way bigger. You may remember last season’s meeting where he tossed around Kerry Blackshear as if he was a guard, which was a perfect example of how much stronger Fulkerson is than he appears. When he catches the ball near the rim he’s a tremendous finisher and much of Tennessee’s offense revolves around getting him those touches.
One of these two might end up starting, likely in place of Victor Bailey, but the two top-level recruits Keon Johnson and Jaden Springer both needed to be noted as well. They’re both on NBA scout’s radars as possible one and done talent and the fact they both went to Tennessee and both are coming off the bench speaks to just where the Volunteer program is right now. Johnson is a bit more of a slasher who is looking to get dunks and putbacks, while Springer is the shooter hitting a ridiculous 56% of his threes so far. They’re both in the 6’5”-6’6” range and establish one of the best wing rotations in the country.
As you can see, the Volunteers are loaded with talent at guard, wing, and frontcourt so, well, everywhere. Not only are they full of raw talent, but they play a connected style of basketball that allows their high level of talent to shine through.
Coach Rick Barnes is known for running the flex offense, a classic basketball mainstay that has fallen a bit out of fashion but is one that Barnes has modernized. To boil it down simply, it uses “flex” cuts (screens for a player to cut from one side of the key to the other) to free up players to catch the ball near the rim and get high efficiency shots. What makes this offense even better is that these flex screens and cuts often cause desperate switches from the defense, meaning that not only do players catch the ball near the rim but they often do it against smaller players who have had to switch on to them.
This has been the case the last couple of years where Florida has gotten guards like Noah Locke and and Tre Mann desperately cross matched onto players like John Fulkerson and Yves Pons who then catch the ball four feet from the hoop and have an easy job of laying it in. The Gators will have to be prepared for this offense and know how they want to handle it. Florida loves to switch everything, but they don’t have the length across the board to handle Tennessee’s height and therefore they would get caught in some very unfavorable matchups. However, if you don’t switch then there is a chance players get caught on screens and there could be easy layups for the Vols.
Scottie Lewis’ status going into Tuesday’s game is unknown but if he is unable to play it will be a huge loss for the Gators as they’ll likely have to go smaller which could be a deathwish against Tennessee’s size in their flex offense. Their entire offense is predicated against hunting switches against smaller players and if the Gators have to play Tyree Appleby and Noah Locke at the wings for long stretches the Volunteers are going to go at them relentlessly.
Knowing that Tennessee wants to run what they do the Gators could try a zone defense but that’s something Mike White does not like to do and Florida has been poor in their zone whenever they have gone to it this season. It will likely be worth a shot to try out, but great success shouldn’t be expected.
Teams have had great success playing zone against Tennessee who has dropped from 0.96 points per possession (46% FG) to 0.84 points per possession (41% FG) when playing against zone instead of man. That’s a significant dropoff, but the Gators may not be comfortable enough in their zone to try to take advantage of that.
As much as Tennessee can be dominant offensively at times, overall they haven’t been outstanding and are surprisingly only 30th in adjusted offensive efficiency so far this season, though that will almost certainly go up.
Where they are as good as anyone in the country is on the defensive end where they are currently ranked 2nd.
Oftentimes a good defense starts with having the right group of players and Tennessee has that. Length on the perimeter, speed in the backcourt, and athleticism in the frontcourt. They’ve got it all, and it makes them seemingly impossible to score on at times. They’re a straight man to man defensive team who relies on their elite one on one defenders to lock down their checks individually. If there is ever penetration, you can rely on Yves Pons to tidy it up as one of the best shot blockers in the country. If he doesn’t, John Fulkerson and Josiah-Jordan James who are both outstanding shot blockers as well will chip in. Not only will they play great first shot defense but once it goes up, they’ll get the defensive rebound nearly every time.
With their length and athleticism they also love to press, around 20% of the time. When they press they’re not just looking to take some time off the clock, they’re looking to force tough decisions and come up with turnovers that end up as dunks on the other end. Tennessee wants to dictate the tempo of games with their length and athleticism and the press is one way they do that.
For Florida the biggest key to the game needs to be how they can stop Tennessee offensively. Now, the Volunteers are actually a better defensive team than they are an offensive team so you might think the biggest key would be Florida figuring out how to score on them but up to this point Florida’s offense has been well ahead of their defense and considering Tennessee’s style of play, this is a bigger area of concern. Rick Barnes has had no problem scheming against Florida the last few years and has relentlessly picked on the smallest players Florida has had on the floor and that can be expected to continue unless Florida comes up with an answer.
Of course, Florida still will have to find ways to score on the other end against what could very well be the best defense in the country. In the past two games they have gone to being very set reliant, something that might have to be the case again against Tennessee. It’s very unlikely that Florida would be able to generate enough opportunities trying to play dribble drive against the longer, more athletic team, so they’ll have to try and call plays that can give them some advantages.
Any way you slice it, this is going to be an extremely difficult game for the Gators. Tennessee only has one loss this season which came to Alabama, but the Crimson Tide won it by being able to match Tennessee’s length on the perimeter which Florida will be unable to do. However, with Florida expected to lose they can come in with a bit of a different mindset than they have had the last couple of games which could be just what they need.