The KenPom rankings have become one of the most trusted analytic systems to evaluate college basketball teams with many putting more faith in the system than the NCAA’s own NET–even if the rankings don’t technically hold the same weight. It is on the team sheets that are shown to the NCAA Tournament selection committee, and many AP Poll voters cite KenPom as a major influence in their choices. For that reason, it’s always a big day in the college basketball community when KenPom creator Ken Pomeroy releases the preseason rankings (always at a random time and without warning–something that adds to the mystique) and in this instance it was on Sunday afternoon, October 15th.
Florida comes in at 39th in KenPom, a number that suggests a bubble-type team. A further breakdown has the Gators projected to be 43rd in adjusted offensive efficiency and 32nd in adjusted defensive efficiency (“adjusted” meaning that it accounts for quality of competition). It also projects pace, projecting the Gators to rank 80th in the country.
It’s also notable that KenPom has the SEC as the second best conference in the country behind the Big 12 and if that ends up happening the league could see as many as eight or nine bids to the SEC Tournament. Here is KenPom’s projected finish of the SEC, as well as the national rankings of each program:
Tennessee (8th)
Alabama (10th)
Arkansas (14th)
Auburn (15th)
Kentucky (18th)
Texas A&M (24th)
Mississippi State (27th)
Florida (39th)
LSU (57th)
Missouri (55th)
Georgia (57th)
South Carolina (66th)
Vanderbilt (79th)
Ole Miss (82nd)
Last season the Gators had four teams finish worse than 82nd in KenPom (Ole Miss 122nd, LSU 151st, Georgia 154th, and South Carolina 221st) with Vanderbilt just ahead at 81st. Looking at the KenPom rankings you can see just why the SEC is projected to be the second best league in the country as no teams are projected to be anywhere near what the bottom of the league was a year ago.
KenPom projects the Gators to have a 18-12 record entering postseason play, going 9-9 in the SEC. Considering the 39th overall projected ranking as well as that record–it would predict the Gators would have some work to do in the SEC Tournament if the Gators want to be comfortably in the field. Of course these are just projections, and the amount of player movement in the modern game makes projections more difficult than ever, but it’s an interesting algorithmic context.
Another area of note is that Florida’s non-conference opponents aren’t ranked particularly highly. Florida’s highest ranked non-conference opponent is Virginia at 33rd, with Michigan next coming in at 44th. This makes Florida’s November 22nd game against Pittsburgh (ranked 62nd) extremely important as if they win that game they will likely play Baylor who is ranked 7th in KenPom, easily offering the Gators the best opportunity of their non-conference season. If the Gators were to lose to Pittsburgh, they would almost certainly play Oregon State who is ranked 175th, a game with very little upside and only the chance to tank Florida’s resume with a loss.
The arrival of KenPom rankings means the season is rapidly approaching, and soon we will see the Gators on the court against Loyola Maryland who is ranked 303rd. KenPom predicts the Gators to come away with a 81-59 win.