Florida basketball had a practice open to the media this past week, as well as an opportunity to open up coach Todd Golden to questioning. One particular answer was noticeably interesting, after Golden was asked about what statistical improvements need to be made on defense in order to make a jump. Here is what he had to say:
“Yeah, I think the main things, you know, that we’re going to be thinking about a lot is, like, kind of like a big-picture wise, two-point field-goal percentage, like, we’ve got to be a better rim protecting team. Part of that is protecting the rim better, but also making sure that they don’t get as many rim shots, so that’s one area that we really need to get better at. I think our ball-screen defense needs to be a lot better. And then lastly, we got to be better at defending without fouling. I think those three areas, if we can make, like, a marked improvement in those, like, we’ll do what we need to do. We guarded the three pretty well last year, our transition defense is pretty good, but I think those other three areas will really determine how big of a jump we really do make.”
If someone is going to ask an analytic question and Golden gives an analytical answer, we are more than happy here at Gator Country to break it down further and show some more numbers behind the situation. In the next week, we’re going to break down a different part of this quote, and see what the Gators can do in order to improve their defense from one that finished 94th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive metric a year ago.
If you missed it, in the first article in the series we wrote about Golden’s comments regarding rim protection and what you can expect from the Gators in that department this season.
In this article we’ll discuss another element Golden talked about–defending without fouling.
This is the natural discussion piece to follow rim protection, as a lot of the plays defenders need to make without fouling are at the rim. It’s not the only piece, of course–but when it comes to Florida, much of their foul issues came from their frontcourt players picking up so many whistles.
Nowadays when people talk about analytics, they often talk about the wide open three being the most valuable shot in basketball. While you can make that argument–it’s not necessarily true. What is the most valuable shot in basketball then? The free throw.
In college basketball, a wide open three averages 1.21 points per possession–making it an extremely valuable shot. However, that’s got nothing on two free throws.
Last season the national average from the free throw line was 71.2%. A 71.2% free throw attempt means 0.712 points per shot, so two of them nets 1.424 points per possession–a number significantly higher than what a wide open three produces. That is why coaches like Golden hate sending opponents to the free throw line, and it’s why Florida needs to become much better at defending without fouling. Last season the Gators were 245th in the country in free throws against, backing up just how many times they were sending opponents to the line.
When you look at Florida’s frontcourt, you can also see just how bad the fouling issues were. The stat we’re going to look at is “fouls per 40 minutes,” and generally you’d like to see players somewhere between 3.0 and 3.5. Here is where Florida’s frontcourt was a year ago.
Micah Handlogten: 5.9
Tyrese Samuel: 3.7
Alex Condon: 5.9
Thomas Haugh: 5.3
In the previous article we discussed how the frontcourt players that won’t be playing this year might actually help Florida’s rim protection, but looking at Condon and Haugh’s foul numbers–the Gators could be in trouble when it comes to the whistle this year.
Let’s take a look at the incoming frontcourt pieces to see how they fare.
Same Alexis: 3.1
Rueben Chinyelu: 6.3
Alexis’ ability to defend without fouling was tremendous, and it starts with just how good his feet are. His quickness for his size allows him to beat offensive players to the spot and get vertical, putting him in position to defend without fouling. While Alexis might not be the best rim protector (as you could see in the previous article), he definitely can defend without fouling which will be huge for this team.
On the other hand you have Chinyelu, who picked up fouls at a rapid pace. According to reports from practice, this hasn’t changed–and Florida has had to regularly call out his fouling in hopes that he’ll improve. Chinyelu is still learning the game and doesn’t have the most lateral dexterity, so he’ll arrive at the rim late and bump already moving offensive players or take wild swings that result in slashes across the wrist. Florida wants Chinyelu to start and play a lot of minutes, but if he doesn’t decrease his foul rate it will be difficult to keep him on the floor.
Fouls at the rim result in free throws, but it’s not the only way to send people to the line as getting into the bonus early in halves is detrimental. Fortunately for Florida–their perimeter actually does a great job at not fouling. Clayton wasn’t the most aggressive defender which also hurts the Gators, but at the same time he doesn’t put himself in bad spots to pick up fouls and committed just 3.1 per 40 minutes. This is why Clayton was always on the floor at the end of big games, available to use his offensive prowess when the Gators needed it most.
Florida also landed a player that sneakily was one of the best in the country at not fouling–Alijah Martin. I mentioned that Clayton wasn’t particularly aggressive defensively and didn’t pick up fouls because of it, but Martin is the kind of truly elite defender that can be extremely aggressive while also not picking up fouls. Despite getting up in the grill of defenders for 30+ minutes per game constantly being disruptive and looking for steals–Martin committed just 2.7 fouls per 40 minutes. This number is nothing short of remarkable and speaks to how incredible and precise he is as a defender, and you can expect him to stay in games and not get into foul trouble that could send him to the bench.
While Florida’s perimeter is going to commit a ton of fouls the frontcourt likely will, and the Gators will have to work around that. Right now Florida’s defensive scheme funnels a lot of action towards the rim, and knowing how the frontcourt defends the rim and the way they pick up fouls it could be time to make a switch. Defending the rim without fouling is something the Gators are working on in practice, and it’s something that could play a huge role in whether or not they will be able to improve defensively on what they were a season ago.