One of the big mysteries of the 2018-19 season will be the play of Deaundrae Ballard, the Gators’ 6’5” wing from Atlanta. Mystery is nothing new to those who followed the recruitment of Ballard as the astonishing numbers he put up in a small high school league had recruiting analysts baffled at how good of a prospect he was. At one point he was nearing the top-50 and at one point he was closer to 175, all in the same year, and recruiting outlets were polarized when he signed on to be a Gator as some had him as Florida’s best recruit and some had him as their least heralded. All that didn’t matter when he got to Gainesville and the Gators’ guard is going to be doing his best to take a big stride into his sophomore season within a group of wings that could all command a big role. Here’s a look into his freshman season to see what we could expect from him this upcoming season.
2017-18 Stats
3.7 Points Per Game
1.7 Rebounds Per Game
0.3 Assists Per Game
0.3 Steals Per Game
10.5 Minutes Per Game
0.156 3-Point Percentage
0.731 Free Throw Percentage
0.384 Field Goal Percentage
Defense
Let’s start with some of the good stuff. Ballard was a quality defender on the ball last season and was particularly adept at guarding the ball handler in screen and roll, one of the toughest things to do as a defensive player. His willingness to battle through the body of a big man’s screen kept him glued to the guard and his length allowed him to recover and get a hand up if the ball handler chose to pull up. He always hustled to close outs and that really bothered shooters as players only shot 33% when guarded by him. Teams didn’t choose to put him on an island and isolate him very often and that was for good reason. Players only shot 12.5% when isolating Ballard, a number that really speaks to his on-ball defense.
However, defending away from the ball was a major issue. Often not recognizing when he’s in a help position or doing the opposite and over-helping (leaving his man wide open unnecessarily) it seems he often drew the ire of Coach White at dead balls when he would regularly call Ballard over for defensive correction. Coach White has a fairly complex system of switching and I’m not sure Ballard ever totally grasped it to the point of feeling comfortable. As a freshman you can possibly overlook that, but as a sophomore he’ll have to gain full understanding of the system to unlock what should be some pretty good defensive tools. Transition defense was another area he struggled, and that’s another really difficult aspect of defense that can particularly be tough on a young player. Communicating who to take when sprinting back at full speed is tough, but Ballard’s habit of running to the wrong player in transition lead to a handful of easy baskets when I watched the tape. The fact he works hard defensively and the way he can defend the ball is encouraging and if he can grasp the defensive scheme fully he could be an impactful defender.
Offense
I’m sorry to do this folks, but I’m going to have to bring up some numbers that are pretty nasty when it comes to Ballard’s shooting. You’ve already seen that 15.6% 3-point clip which isn’t pretty, but that’s just the beginning. He took more mid-range jumpers than 3’s last season which in today’s threes-and-layups analytically-driven game is fairly undesirable. His shot selection also showed to be quite poor as 62.1% of his jump shot attempts were while closely guarded, and it wasn’t like he was a Jalen Hudson-caliber tough shot maker. When guarded on a jumper, he shot 5.6%.
That’s good for 2530th in the nation is guarded jump shot ability.
There were 2548 players eligible for that category.
When open he obviously shot the ball better, but not great as he was 36.4% when unguarded.
His best shooting skill is his ability to shoot off the dribble where, although he forced up a lot of bad shots early in the clock, he did hit at a 42.3% clip. His ability to shoot off the dribble is good but his desire to do that meant he took a lot of tough looks the team didn’t need from him.
Another area he was good was when it came to finishing around the basket. He shot 59.1% at the rim which is a really solid number and probably shows how he’d be a lot better off trying to get to the rim (where 25.3% of his attempts came) than as a jump shooter (where 65.5% of his attempts came). He should be a better shooter (more on this later) this season, I mean, it would be hard to be much worse, but his above-average ability to finish at the rim indicates to me he should be more of a driver. The Gators also lacked players that could get to the rim off the dribble last year and if Ballard could provide some of that penetration he could give another dimension to the offense we hadn’t seen last year.
If nothing else, he needs to tidy up that shot selection. Taking more midrange shots than threes is not advisable and he especially shouldn’t be taking so many shots guarded. Taking nearly double the shots guarded than unguarded is a wild number and if he improves his shot selection he should immediately put up better shooting numbers.
Insider Info
I’ll have to admit, I was pretty down on Ballard going into this season. I wasn’t a fan of what I saw as a freshman and though you should never limit a player’s ceiling to what he did as a freshman I thought he might be in tough this season to get minutes over the incoming Noah Locke and Keyontae Johnson on the wing. That was, of course, until I talked to a source within the team who told me I wasn’t going to believe it but he has been our best shooter since practice began. He also told me he was our best player in the secret scrimmage against Furman. As if that wasn’t enough juicy information, I was told that although he is a hot and cold player, when he’s on he’s easily the team’s best scorer. This came as quite a shock to me but I’m happy that Ballard is having an awesome fall camp. I, like most of you, won’t fully believe it until we see it on the floor but at this moment it’s encouraging to know that he’s looking great. If he were to have a breakout year, I will eat a plate of crow as a guy who was not high on his game. When the ball tips against Florida State, watch to see how Ballard can affect the game.