Cole Zwicker From The Stepien Breaks Down Florida’s NBA Draft Prospects

Florida’s roster is stocked with multiple NBA prospects and to help break them down I was able to talk to the best in the business, Cole Zwicker of The Stepien. I’ve been a massive fan of him and his work ever since I started reading it and I still diligently check his site to read what I think is the best NBA Draft content out there. There is no one I would rather have to talk about Florida’s draft prospects than Cole and his dedication to his craft was shown in the fact that he watched Florida’s exhibition with Lynn to help further his knowledge with their young talents. You’ll be sure to enjoy it, so here’s my chat with Cole Zwicker.

EF: Thanks so much for your time Cole! Could you start by telling everyone what you do?

CZ: Appreciate you having me Eric. I’m an attorney in “real life”, but on the basketball side I’ve worked in multiple levels to include most recently a stint as a draft consultant to the analytics department of the Phoenix Suns for a year from Spring 2018 to Spring 2019. I also co-founded The Stepien in 2017, a site that specializes in NBA Draft content.

EF: Scottie Lewis is Florida’s highest rated recruit and is getting a lot of draft buzz. What do people that are particularly high on him see in his game?

CZ: Not to be overly rudimentary here but with Scottie you have to start with how functional his athleticism plays on the floor in certain respects, especially on defense and in transition. No sequence highlights this more than a play against Lynn where in recovery he seems to float in the air for 5 seconds (kind of an exaggeration) before blocking the shot with his left hand. His effortless and gliding elite play speed in transition, explosive first step, incredibly quick leaping ability off the floor and change of direction agility is probably second to none in his class if we’re talking purely in off-ball settings or bigger spaces with the ball (his one foot pop operating at high speed is incredible). He has the physical attributes scouts look for (6-foot-10 wingspan) to pair with the ability to guard his position. What I again like about Lewis is his athleticism actually plays on the floor. He isn’t just a run and jump 40+ inch vertical athlete. You see the athleticism in areas such as rim protection for example and in conjunction with his motor it makes him a special athlete in several respects. But to be succinct Lewis hits enough high notes that scouts look for in that he can really change ends filling the lanes in transition (a necessity in the new pace and space era), has the athleticism/tools to guard multiple positions and switch, while showing enough baseline competency from a skill perspective most notably as a shooter.

EF: While there are some unmistakable positives to his game there are also some question marks. What are your concerns with him as a prospect?

CZ: From a projection standpoint I’m most concerned with how functional his skill level is at his size relative to his ceiling—mainly does he have the skill level to really unlock his athleticism as a creator— and if his decision-making is going to be reliable enough to trust with the ball. Lewis has a leaner build at 6-foot-5. If he had real big wing size at 6-foot-8 with the build of an Isaac Okoro I’d be more lenient on his creation skill-level, as he’d bring potential wing stopper value at a scarce position. But given Lewis has more of a big guard size/build, it places more emphasis on his skill level because he loses some defensive value to really guard big wings from a strength perspective. A lot of the skill elements in the half court are TBD for me. We saw him hit a pull-up 3 against Lynn. Can he be a reliable shotmaker? He’s a capable ball-handler in bigger spaces and has passing vision/willingness, but how well does he really execute reads? From most of his high school tape you see him get sped up making decisions a good amount in the half court especially, and he often plays at speeds beyond the range of his ball-handling control, resulting in ball control issues. If he can’t function on-ball as a creator it’s going to put an emphasis on his spot up shooting, where the results have been inconsistent. His mechanics are passable, and he seems confident there. It’s more of a question of degree of goodness and upside. Can he shoot off movement at all, or is he more of an “execution” stationary shooter who defenses won’t afford any gravity to? Mainly I think Lewis is just out of control too often. He needs to slow down and control his body. If he shows better body control and coordination with the ball this year it changes his upside calculus to me.

EF: What do you think he needs to showcase at Florida this year to prove himself as an NBA lottery pick and cover up the concerns you mentioned?

CZ: For scouts it’s really going to be the 3-point shooting, most specifically off the catch. I think the NBA community will view Lewis more as a wing or traditional off-ball “shooting guard” 3&D type, and will give him some leeway as a self creator with the skill game and making decisions. The intersection of athleticism/tools (especially at Lewis’ level) in conjunction with age/pedigree and shooting usually gets you drafted high, especially with some of the flash plays Lewis will undoubtedly have as a finisher/defender. (Not to mention Lewis will likely kill the interview process and will get a pretty big “intangibles” boost from scouts.) Even if concerns still exist, Lewis being a reliable spacing threat this season is his clearest route to being a lottery pick.

EF: Through the years you have seen so many top prospects in college and have seen the way they play in a one-and-done college year, making you the perfect person to ask this question–how do you think his freshman season will go from a production standpoint?

CZ: It’s interesting with Lewis here just because few high pedigree prospects like this go to such established situations on competitive teams with actual real infrastructure. Nembhard is a legitimate point guard who will find Lewis on the break and on cuts. Florida has legitimate spacing with Nembhard, Locke, Mann, and Blackshear that should afford Lewis opportunities to really slash to the basket getting into space/gaps, a luxury other athletic wing slashers in the past such as Jaylen Brown didn’t have. I think the environment will bode well for Lewis’ efficiency on offense (more catch-and-shoot 3s and space to operate) and will certainly lessen his creation burden. On the flip side because Florida is so deep you won’t see the counting stat totals he’d have as a more primary focal point of a college offense. I’m miserable predicting stats but it’s a situation that should boost efficiency at the expense of some raw numbers. Given what White demands of players from a defensive intensity standpoint as well I think it’s fair to assume Lewis will create events on that end at a solid rate, perhaps to a greater extent than he would in lesser intensity settings.

EF: I’m just going to right out and ask this. Who are you higher on as an NBA prospect, Scottie Lewis or Tre Mann?

CZ: Way to bury the lede! As we’ve talked about off the record I’m tentatively higher on Mann, with incredible emphasis on tentatively.

EF: Your answer is probably going to surprise a lot of people. Explain why you like Mann over Lewis from what you’ve seen.

CZ: From a projection standpoint on-ball perimeter players who can dribble, pass, shoot off the dribble and make good decisions while also being able to space the floor off the ball are at a premium in the modern game. I think Mann might be proficient enough at all of those things, and potentially lethal as a diverse shooter in time. More fundamentally offensive players who can create for themselves and others as overall playmakers are always highly coveted. Mann’s skill set is incredibly advanced for his age. He can pass, dribble, drive and finish with either hand. He has a bevy of dribble moves via in-and-outs, crossovers and gliding hang dribbles, and he really knows how to set up screens in pick-and-roll. For ball-handlers I really look for can a player control the ball in tighter confines all the way around his body (not just in front), and Mann has shown real aptitude here. Mann just moves differently with the ball in how he changes speeds, how he goes high-to-low playing off his pull-up and with his pace. He’s incredibly deceptive with sharp changes of direction to create space, utilizes the threat of his pull-up to lull defenders to sleep and is more sudden with a quick first step than he probably gets credit for. I love his touch on runners and that he already has extension (“Nash-like”) finishes in his game, along with awkward timing finishes to help compensate for his lack of raw speed to power explosion like we saw in McDonald’s practices (he’s crafty!). The overall package really stems mostly from the jump shot however. Mann has 30 foot+ range with very translatable one-motion mechanics, can quickly transition from his handle to his pull-up staying loaded and seems to have plus balance, even in forward momentum situations. As we saw against Lynn (despite the pull-ups not going) there is a strong foundation here that was evident in high school, and he’s deadly off the catch. His touch is the real selling part for me outside of the mechanics (he gets great rotation on the ball), and I think he could be weaponized as a movement shooter as well. Mann does lack of certain high-level of intuition in his play, as he’s not an anticipatory passer from what I’ve seen and doesn’t always relocate off ball to free himself (few do at the AAU level). But based purely on his play even with him not expected to be a one-and-done based on the surrounding circumstances at Florida I don’t understand such a wide perception gap between him and prospects like Darius Garland. (Mann is often compared to Garland, and that’s the comparison I saw most in his lower level tape, although I think Mann is a better vertical athlete and has more in his finishing toolbox.) Mann is a bit of a wildcard as a late riser, and there is still a lot in his game that I want to see against better competition. If he can really get to the rim consistently and proves to be the kind of sub-elite to elite shooter I think he can be (to me he’s probably only behind Cole Anthony here in this class of combo/lead guards), he’s going to be hard to overlook with his skill set. Part of me wishes he went to a team where he could just run the show full time and we could see his decision-making as an offensive fulcrum more consistently, but you have to respect his decision to go to the hometown team with emphasis on winning. I don’t view him as a Trae Young type offensive engine who you can run all the offense through (just haven’t seen enough of this), but he could be devastating in a multiple ball-handler NBA scheme if the defense is passable. In relation to Lewis I just favor Mann’s skill level at this time which is far more advanced, but that could change if we see ball-skill developments from Scottie.

EF: Tre Mann’s scoring aptitude has been shown at many level but his defense has sometimes been questioned. What have you seen from him on the defensive end?

CZ: Similar to most prospects on the AAU circuit and in high school it’s difficult to analyze real holistic defensive aptitude, especially off the ball, in less structured settings. Outside of the highly instinctual or incredibly high motor prospects, few really stand out as clear positives in a holistic defensive sense. Mann hasn’t really popped here off the ball creating events and showing great intuition. We even saw that against Lynn where he didn’t intercept a skip pass thrown right by his head that more natural playmakers such as LaMelo Ball would see and exploit. But Mann didn’t look consistently lost cycling through assignments (Florida does switch on the fly a good amount which really helps in highlighting attentiveness and awareness), and I was impressed with him not lapsing. He defended against Lynn more like he was trying not to make mistakes rather than him really seeing the floor and anticipating. He did show better rotational awareness than I anticipated for his first structured game, and towards the end he looked more comfortable coming off his man a bit more in help (he crashed down and challenged a shot later in the exhibition that stood out). On-ball Mann of course lacks strength still even after adding some girth having lifted weights for the first time, and strength and size are probably the most important traits to on-ball defense from a translation perspective. Mann does have good feet and agility however, as we saw him wall off a Lynn driver before finishing the possessions with a left-handed block (which he didn’t get credit for in the box score?). He also had a really nice mirroring sequence in the McDonald’s game against Josiah James where he was able to contain and contest the shot. He might get run through a few times against more power slashers in college but I think he has the movement ability and length to stick with most guards. If you look at him side by side with someone like Tyrese Maxey at McDonalds he doesn’t have the wide shoulders you’d project to add significant strength, as Mann’s frame is a little diminutive. He’s not going to switch at a plus level in the pros. But with most guards you’re just looking for enough passable defense for the offense to compensate, and I think Mann could mimic this.

EF: You have said you like Mann more than Lewis as a draft prospect but often times the best prospects aren’t the bad college players. Who are you expecting to have the better freshman season between Mann and Lewis?

CZ: From a production standpoint (how most would determine a “better” season), specifically in regards to scoring, I think Mann will edge out Lewis this year. Mann has the skill set of the two via his self-creation/scoring that Florida needs most as a guy Florida can throw the ball to on the perimeter to get baskets (given that’s not really Nembhard’s game and Locke is more of a floor spacer). Lewis is unlikely to be relied on in that fashion, and probably won’t pop as much as a result. Mann is also the better shooter. As far as contributing to winning basketball with Florida’s title aspirations a lot will come down to the decision-making of both players on both sides of the ball where the debate is more of a tossup for me.

EF: How many years would you expect to see Mann at Florida?

CZ: Right now I think the safe bet is two. ESPN has Mann early second round in 2021, and they’re far better connected than I am. Most draft analysts in the media and scouts I’ve talked to don’t expect Mann to be a one-and-done given Florida’s depth and the presence of Nembhard. I presume a lot scouts want to see Mann run the show to assess his playmaking for others prowess and ability to function in pick-and-roll etc as a real lead guard before feeling confident drafting him. The 2020 draft is also incredibly deep at the guard spot as kind of a mixture of the 2017 and 2009 drafts, which could impact positional demand and Mann’s willingness to come out. I think teams should be much more proactive in the 20s trying to get Mann to enter if he shows out like I think he can. You don’t often find his skill set available outside the lottery, which is part of why I think he could be one of this draft’s biggest inefficiencies.

EF: I’ve also got to ask you about Andrew Nembhard who tested the waters this offseason before returning to the Gators. Can you talk about the positives you’ve seen in his game, and then also point out the limiting factors that have scouts concerned.

CZ: The first thing that pops with Nembhard is he really knows how to run an offense and can playmake as a passer out of pick-and-roll making most of the reads (skips, pocket passes, etc). He has strong feel, and is advanced in being able to manipulate defenders with look-offs to open up passing lanes. He’s also quietly a very reliable catch-and-shoot floor-spacer. If you put that package in a big-bodied 6-foot-5 player with some athleticism you have the makings of a player who can initiate an offense as well as play off the ball in most leagues in the world. The issues from a NBA projection standpoint mostly center around Nembhard’s on-ball self creation package; mainly his ability to create separation. He’s not overly explosive in and out of his moves and just lacks top end speed, dynamic burst and a plus first step. He’s also not an explosive leaper off one or two feet, which really limits his finishing ceiling and necessitates the addition of an ultra-reliable floater game. Better athletes can really get into Nembhard and bother him on-ball (have watched him in person at Hoop Summit practicers in the past where this was the case), as he also lacks a sudden or dynamic pull-up game from range especially. Defensively he has size, strength and smarts, but lacks plus lateral agility and leaping athleticism to compensate. It’s difficult to see what position he guards well in the NBA, lacking the speed and twitch for more dynamic perimeter guards and the impactful size/athleticism combination for wings. But at least he has some size and smarts. Ultimately for scouts I think a lot will come down to Nembhard not being a dynamic enough athlete or scorer on-ball to really run offense through other than potentially as a backup for stints that will limit his draft ceiling.

EF: If Nembhard declares for the draft after this season like many are expecting where do you think he gets drafted? Or, do you think he goes undrafted?

CZ: I don’t see first round for Nembhard, with early second probably being his ceiling in a vacuum. However if he does come out for the 2020 draft as expected given the point above about the depth at guard it could push him to undrafted territory for the teams who might have had an early-to-mid second round grade on him. I think his absolute floor is a summer league contract or exhibit 10 deal, with it being more likely a partial guarantee Justin Robinson type situation or a two-way contract. NBA teams are getting smarter about devoting some resources to lead guards who can run an offense for their G-League teams, and regardless of your evaluation of Nembhard I think we can all probably agree that he can do that capably. The question of course is how valuable and replaceable is that.

EF: Lastly I want to talk to you about Kerry Blackshear Jr., the gem of the graduate transfer market after he declared for the draft but didn’t seem to get much positive feedback not being selected to attend the NBA or G League combine. Do you see any scenario where he’s a NBA player?

CZ: It really depends on just how good the shooting gets. He’s really going to have to be a legitimate knockdown stretch big to stick in a rotation and to compensate for his defensive/athletic limitations (I don’t know what position he can realistically guard at the next level). I think he gets a cup of coffee in the league and maybe a team tries to run five out with him as a backup center (he’ll be in summer league), but ultimately I think his path leads overseas (where he’ll be successful).

EF: Thanks so much for doing this Cole, I love your work and I think you’re the best at what you do. Once again let everyone know where they can follow you and where they can find your work.

CZ: Thanks again for having me Eric and for the kind words. You can follow me on Twitter @colezwicker, find my draft work as well as my cowriters at
thestepien.com (I have a fairly expansive piece on Mann up there that I’m sure Eric can link to) and l also pop on Sam Vecenie’s Game Theory podcast once a week or so to discuss the draft as well as young players in the NBA (we talk about everything in basketball but primarily those two things). Should be a fun Florida team this year. Look forward to following along.