Whatever way you slice it, the Gators aren’t in a particularly comfortable position when it comes to their NCAA Tournament outlook. Depending on your bracketologist of choice you may see one that has the Gators (16-10, 6-7 SEC) in the “next four out,” but most will even have the Gators outside of that distinction. Most importantly the Gators are 54th in the NCAA’s NET rankings, their official sorting tool, and that number almost certainly would disqualify them from at-large consideration.
One of the reasons why their resume is lacking is the lack of marquee wins. Currently the Gators have only one quadrant-1 win–over Ohio State. Nearly all the teams in the at-large pool have multiple quadrant-1 wins, and though the neutral site win over the Buckeyes is a big one, it’s far from a signature win that would power a resume on it’s own. Obviously the Gators need to avoid the bad loss landmines remaining on their schedule to have a chance at an at-large berth but at some point if they want to make a statement and shore up their resume they’ll need a big-time quadrant-1 win to positively change their fates.
Luckily for Florida they get that chance Saturday when they welcome the Auburn Tigers to Gainesville.
Auburn currently sits at the top of the SEC at 12-1 in the SEC and are a projected Final Four team by, well, just about everybody. They’re 24-2 on the season and their losses have come to UConn in double overtime and Arkansas in single overtime, making them the only team in the country that hasn’t lost in regulation. They are only a couple possessions away from an unblemished season making this a truly extraordinary run for a team that is primed for a National Title run.
The first meeting of the Gators and Tigers this season took place in “The Jungle,” Auburn’s now notorious homecourt. Florida opened scoring with a three-pointer and then were quickly overtaken by the Tigers and never led again with Auburn winning 85-73. There was an inspired surge by the Gators in the early second half to cut the deficit to only a possession but ultimately Auburn’s overwhelming offensive attack was enough to take over and hold on for the win.
This was a game where for just over 30 minutes the Gators played the Tigers to a relative stalemate. It was the first 10 minutes where the Gators gave up two separate big runs (7 points and 8 points) that gave the Tigers a cushion, and outside of those stretches it was a tight game. Florida had to have been happy with their ability to play Auburn close for much of the game, particularly on the road, and that should give them some confidence going into Saturday’s game.
For Florida to get a different outcome from the first meeting of the season it starts with the defensive end, particularly on the perimeter with Auburn’s talented guards. 6’0” sophomore KD Johnson was a terror on that day finishing with 23 points while fellow small guard Wendell Green (5’11”) also thrived with 13 points and 4 assists. One of Florida’s biggest issues defensively has been the ability to contain small, quick guards–and Auburn has some of the best of those in the country. It seemed like whenever Auburn’s guards wanted to go one on one they had an individual advantage and could get in the paint and either finish and kick to an open shooter and they had the Gators scrambling all game long.
This is where Florida’s defensive plan needs to begin. It could be that they try to sit in the gaps away from the ball to plug up dribble penetration, challenging Auburn to punish them on catch and shoot threes. Auburn has sneakily struggled shooting the ball recently and is actually 263rd in the country in three-point percentage so the Gators could try their luck with making the Tigers score from the outside versus at the rim. Zone could also be in the equation for Florida but they have been reluctant to stick to that when they have gone to it this season so it’s hard to anticipate them trying it, even in a desperation game.
There is one pretty big personnel change between the first meeting and this one that could work in Florida’s favor. Back in January when they first met, sophomore wing Niels Lane was still in the dog house. He was in a stretch of a couple weeks where he didn’t get any minutes and wasn’t at all on the radar as a possible option in this game. That isn’t the case these last two weeks where he has gotten a couple of starts and played some big minutes, primarily in the role of trying to shut down the opposing team’s best perimeter player. If you’re looking for something that could be tangibly different from the first meeting to the second it could very well be the insertion of Lane who completely changes the look of Florida defensively. Not only is he an outstanding one on one defender but his length and quickness makes him adept as a help defender and that’s just what the Gators will need against a team with multiple elite drivers.
In terms of what went right for the Gators in the first meeting and what they could try to go back to–it’s all about Colin Castleton. He finished with 22 points and 10 rebounds, a remarkable night against an Auburn team that has one of the best frontcourts in the country with Walker Kessler, Dylan Cardwell, and of course, projected first overall pick in the NBA draft Jabari Smith. Castleton was able to use a quick first step on the block before finishing with length and finesse, and it was an effective offensive option against an Auburn team that is 9th in the country in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric. Castleton proved that Florida could score on one of the best defenses in the country, so they’ll certainly go back to him a ton to see if he can lead the way once again.
Looking back on the first meeting of the season Florida was able to meet the challenge of Auburn’s defense and score efficiently enough and it was their defense that wasn’t able to hang. For that reason, this matchup is all about whether or not the Gators can come with a defensive plan that will work and if the players are able to execute. Adding Niels Lane will certainly help in that category, but his insertion likely won’t be enough on it’s own. Others will have to dig deep and lock down on the defensive perimeter, and if they don’t the Tigers could quickly run away with it.
This is a game where Florida isn’t expected to win, and unless they get blown out it’s not going to hurt their resume. However, they have everything to gain. A win would almost certainly take them from the outside to the inside of the NCAA Tournament field. You could say the Gators are playing with house money to an extent, but at the same time they’re also running out of chances to drastically improve their resume.
This game takes place Saturday, February 9th at 2 PM ET and will be televised on ESPN.