Florida’s rocky start to the 2019-20 basketball season could be chalked up to several factors but if you were to poll Gator fans and national media about what has plagued the team and led to a disappointing start there is going to be a consensus number one answer—the offense.
Criticism of Mike White’s ability to put his players in positions to score started two seasons ago when the Gators finished 41st in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric and got much louder a year ago when Florida finished 61st. Currently the Gators sit at 56th, a number that is still getting propped up by some predictive preseason metrics baked into the algorithm that keep the Gators from what would likely be a lower ranking.
Not only are the Gators not putting enough points on the board but they’re doing it in a style that hasn’t been deemed aesthetically pleasing by most who tune into the games. Methodically bringing up the ball and surveying the defense is a style that can sometimes make empty offensive possessions feel more devastating and when the Gators are trying to catch up in games the slow tempo can make the clock feel like the other team’s sixth man.
Up until recently Coach White has always been known as a coach who wanted to play fast and free, playing dribble-drive motion that allows his players to see the floor, make reads, and be playmakers. While that style worked at Louisiana Tech it hasn’t gelled with the talent he’s had in Gainesville and the result of that has been a shift in offensive philosophy from continuity dribble-drive offense (continuity meaning the offense doesn’t have a particular end point, the actions just flow repeatedly until someone gets an open shot) to more set-based, a more rigid system where players get to particular spots on the floor before the point guard triggers the action.
That doesn’t mean all White’s original philosophies have been forgotten. Florida still plays plenty of possessions with their motion offense and they also moved into a Princeton offense (more on that later) that is more regimented that their motion but is still a continuity offense that allows players to make reads.
What we’re seeing now is a blended offense of some continuity, motion-based possessions as well as a great deal of play calls from the bench that get the team into particular sets.
That begs the question—what is better for this team? Is it playing more loosely and allowing players a ton of freedom on the floor or is it using sets that tactically pick apart a defense and allow the Gators to play to particular strengths?
And if Florida is going to call a lot of sets…which sets are the best ones?
To find out, every offensive play the Gators have ran this year needed to be watched and charted to find out what actions are effective and which need to be pushed to the back of the playbook.
Florida has ran 670 possessions so far this season and I watched every single one for the purposes of this article. Each play was logged as what kind of set it was and what the result of the play was. That way the overall effectiveness of each set could be established and we can see what the best way is for this team to score.
When it comes to particular play calls, it’s not known exactly what the Gators call them but they’ll be labeled by basic names here or the names that they are typically called in the basketball coaching community. Each play will be broken down so you know exactly what to look for next time you see the Gators play, and you’ll even know how effective they’ve been with that set so far this season.
Points per possession will be used to quantify and evaluate these sets. Points per possession is a much more accurate tool for evaluation than the traditional field goal percentage as it accounts for the added value of the 3-point shot, factors in free throws that may have come from the action, and penalizes for when a turnover is committed.
Without further ado, here is everything you need to know about Florida’s offense this season.
Motion Offense
147 Possessions
0.857 PPP
Motion offense is a team’s bread and butter. It’s what they do when there isn’t a specific play call and it’s what they might do off an offensive rebound with 17 seconds on the shot clock just to make sure the offense keeps flowing.
For the Gators, think of it as players playing within concepts more than them running exact movements. A player passes the ball and then decides whether to make a basket cut if it’s available or screen away for a teammate who may be freed up to get the basketball going downhill. While that’s happening on one side of the floor, players on the opposite side might be doing an exchange to occupy help defenders and catch them sleeping.
This is also what Florida uses a lot to try and get Kerry Blackshear Jr. touches on the low block. They’ll go four out and one in and move the ball side to side while Blackshear jostles for position and once the Gators get the ball entered they might try to run some off-ball screens to free up shooters.
Generally speaking, motion offense hasn’t been a great way for the team to score as evidenced by the 0.857 PPP. However, it should be noted that their PPP was cratered by a particularly poor motion performance against Florida State, a team perfectly suited to take away the motion offense.
One of the reasons motion offense hasn’t been great for this team is that you need multiple players on the court that can create off the dribble and create advantage situations where help defenders have to rotate over and the ball can be kicked to the open man. That isn’t the strength of Florida’s roster and for that reason it hasn’t been entirely effective.
Florida used the motion offense a lot more early in the season against North Florida, Florida State, and Towson (who also mixed in random possessions of zone that made Florida use motion) but have gone away from it in recent games. You probably won’t see a ton of the motion offense used moving forward but it will always be an element of Florida’s game.
Princeton Offense
69 Possessions
0.884 PPP
The reason Florida isn’t playing their 4 out, one in motion as much is that it has been largely replaced by the Princeton offense in recent games. While the overall number of possessions is a lot lower than motion they have used it more than the motion in the last two games and they also used it a lot last year, meaning you should get used to seeing it as one of Florida’s primary attacks.
They have also been over 1 PPP over the last two games when using the Princeton offense and the reason the overall number isn’t that high is because they rolled it out in garbage time of some of the earlier games with bench players and that made for empty possession while the team learned the progressions. Recently it has been an effective attack that has made for some really good looks.
The Princeton offense is characterized by the use of the chin screen, an action where a post player comes up to set a back screen for a guard.
You’ll know the Gators are in their Princeton offense when they line up with a player at each of the two guard spots and a big man in the high post, even sometimes as high as the three-point line. The guard with the basketball will pass it to the other guard and then receive the chin screen from the post. The guard will run straight to the rim and get a backdoor cut opportunity.
If that isn’t there, the guard with the ball will throw it into the high post at which point he’ll make a read. He can either run over the top of the post and have a dribble handoff opportunity or he’ll fake that route and then go and set a down screen for a wing before cutting towards the rim.
It may be a bit complex, but you’ll recognize it from the guard-to-guard pass followed by the chin screen and then the ball entry into the high post.
This offense has been good for the Gators recently as it forces defenses to suck in towards the hoop to take away back cuts and has opened up clean looks at the three. It allows Blackshear to demonstrate his passing ability from the high post and also gives him isolation opportunities while help defenders deal with the off ball actions happening on the wings. Keep an eye out for this offense next time you see Florida play.
High Ball Screen (Roll And Replace)
53 Possessions
0.93 PPP
Everyone knows high ball screens have become a staple of modern basketball and it’s a simple way for the Gators to get good offensive looks.
Roll and replace refers to a player, usually the 4-man like Keyontae Johnson standing near the hoop while Andrew Nembhard handles the ball and Kerry Blackshear Jr. comes to set a ball screen. When the screen takes place, Johnson darts from his possession near the hoop to the guard spot, “replacing” the vacated part of the floor Blackshear came from to set the screen.
One of the reasons this is done is to force Johnson’s defender to make a tough decision. Because Johnson started near the hoop his defender would have the primary help responsibility on the screen and roll. Now that Johnson has ran to the perimeter if he follows him there isn’t anyone in a help side position. If he stays to help, Johnson is going to have an open 3-point look.
Roll and replace really showcases Nembhard’s decision making and passing ability and his improved individual finishing has really helped the action, and of course the gravity Blackshear has as a roll man really makes it tough to defend.
Florida also uses these ball screens to get post up chances for Blackshear. He’ll set a screen for Nembhard and roll to the hoop before sealing his man and opening up a passing lane. Nembhard will reverse the ball to a player with a better angle who can then enter it into Blackshear.
This is simple basketball but it’s been effective for the Gators and it’s something they can go to multiple times a game. If you’re reading this you have probably seen thousands of pick and rolls take place on your television and know exactly what they are, so watch for the way the “replace” player flows into open space and look for the Gators to reverse the ball to then get it into Blackshear.
Wedge Ball Screen
30 Possessions
0.867 PPP
Florida ran a more complex version of the wedge ball screen last year but even with a simplified version it’s been a great play call. Early in the season the team struggled with it but it has been at 1.27 PPP over the last three games and got them three key buckets early against Butler.
A wedge ball screen ends with just that, a ball screen, but it’s the actions leading up to it that make it a great set.
The Gators line up with the point guard in the middle of the floor with the ball with the four others in a line straight across the baseline. A guard, usually Noah Locke, will go set an off-ball screen for a big like Blackshear. Then Blackshear will go set a ball screen for Nembhard. While that’s happening, the other two players will space to the opposite corners of where they started.
Simply put, it’s setting a screen for the player who is to then set a ball screen.
This accomplishes two very important things.
First, it occupies every defender on the floor so they can’t all load up against the screen and roll.
Second, if a team switches everything defensively they usually can’t switch this ball screen because the player guarding the screener is going to be a step behind due to the fact he needs to fight through a screen.
Every team is used to guarding a ton of ball screens but the wedge ball screen is a fancied up version of the classic action that allows the Gators to surprise teams. Considering White used this set last season and that it’s been incredibly effective recently I think you’ll see this as a regular part of Florida’s playbook.
Again, you’ll know this play is coming when the Gators line up with four players along the baseline and a guard goes to set an off ball screen for a big who will then screen the ball.
“Butt Screen”
20 Possessions
0.75 PPP
The “butt screen” is something that has become incredibly common in modern basketball and it’s a way to get a drive to the hoop or a quick post up.
The “butt screen” refers to a post player coming to set a ball screen, but not in a conventional way.
Usually when a player screens for a ball handler he is sideways, facing a sideline and trying to get his chest perpendicular to the player he is setting a screen on.
With the butt screen he’s facing the hoop, standing directly behind the defense player he is screening with his back to him and to the ball handler he’s screening for. Because of that, the ball handler can attack to either the left or to the right. With a typical ball screen the ball handler can only attack over top of the screen but the butt screen allows him to drive in either direction. Because the screener is directly behind the defender he won’t be able to recover if the ball handler gets a step. Also, because the screener is facing the hoop already there is any easy pick and pop opportunity.
While this is happening another post is almost always trying to get a seal in the low block for a post up opportunity.
This set is mostly designed to get a pick and pop 3-point look for Blackshear but it hasn’t worked particularly well yet, but we’ll see how much White tries to use it in the future.
You’ll know this action is coming when Blackshear comes to set a screen but instead of squaring his shoulders to the defender he stands at the 3-point line looking at the hoop. It might even look a little bit silly but there is reasoning behind it.
Box Pin Downs
19 Possessions
0.579
This hasn’t been a good set for the Gators but it’s one that works a couple of times against Butler for Tre Mann to get some good looks.
It starts with four Gators in a Box formation around the key with 2 players at the elbow and two down low. The top 2 players set pin down screens for the bottom two players who are now freed up around the free throw line. The point guard enters the ball into one of those two players now in the high post and then cuts towards the hoop, getting a back screen from the other high post player. While that’s happening a wing like Tre Mann does an “Iverson cut” (running from one side of the court to the other across the free throw line, popularized by Allen Iverson) to the weak side of the floor where he can receive the ball and have a baseline driving opportunity.
When Florida has ran this it has gotten pretty congested in the paint but they had success creating driving lanes for Tre Mann and they once hit Andrew Nembhard with a beautiful lob play off the initial pass.
You’ll see this coming when four players line up in the box formation.
Double High Screen
31 Possessions
0.774 PPP
There are two variations of this play the Gators use but they have the same end goal so we’ll lump them together.
Instead of a single player going to set a tradition ball screen the Gators send two players to set picks. The ball handler will use the ball screens and then attack. The player who set the first ball screen will then set a down screen for the second screener who then pops out to the three-point line for what’s hopefully an open look.
You’ll often see this action with Keyontae Johnson as the second screener to give him a catch and shoot opportunities.
When two players go to set a ball screen you’ll know this one is coming. First screener rolls, second screener pops.
Most teams have a play like this in their arsenal and teams seem ready to defend it. It hasn’t been awfully effective but it’s a simple way to start off the offense if the Gators want to then get into their motion.
Side Ball Screen Action
15 Possessions
1.134 PPP
This variation has been Florida’s best use of the ball screen, at least from a points per possession standpoint. Like the wedge ball screen it uses a wing to set a screen for a post player who then sets a ball screen. Instead of starting the ball screen high, they start it fairly low, on the sideline near the free throw line extended (an imaginary line that starts from the free throw stripe and extends to both sidelines).
What has made the side ball screen so effective is that because they start it so low the ball handler is always in a scoring position. At any point he can pull up for three from a reasonable distance so when the ball screen comes he pull up instantly, or take a bounce than shoot, or attack the ball screen and he’s instantly inside the arc and in the teeth of the defense. That isn’t at all the case with the high ball screen and while they haven’t used this set nearly as much as the high ball screen it’s been more efficient and it would be wise to use it a bit more heavily.
High Post Clear Out
14 Possessions
0.643 PPP
Mike White has been searching for ways to make Blackshear a fulcrum of the offense and recently they’ve used this high post clear out to make him the quarterback of a possession.
In this play there are two players at the guard spots, two players at the wing spots (even a bit higher, like the free throw line extended), and Blackshear in the high post. A guard passes to the wing, and immediate both guards cut through the paint and run to both corners. The spacing they created makes an easy pass into the high post and the wing will then enter it to Blackshear. He can either go one on one or a wing might come in for a dribble handoff.
This set has gotten a bit stale once the ball has gotten into Blackshear’s hands and it’s resulted in some low efficiency numbers but some variation in what off-ball players are doing could really help this out and make it more dynamic, so we could see this more.
There have been other plays Florida has mixed in but hasn’t used a ton, but for you diehards out there these are some actions you might see. We won’t get into them today.
Noah Locke Flare Screen
Horns
Floppy
1-4 Flat Into Wing Iso
Baseline Stagger Screen
Keyontae Johnson Lob Play
That accounts for Florida’s half court offense, but what about their transition and early offense?
One of the reasons the Gators have struggles so mightily to put up points at times has been the fact that they have been ineffective in transition and early offense.
Yes, they have found some open threes off the break and also had great success with Blackshear setting a drag screen for Andrew Nembhard (when Blackshear trails the play and then sets an immediate ball screen) but overall transition and early offense hasn’t been good. They’ve been at 0.854 in transition and early offense and that number simply isn’t good enough. Almost every team in college basketball has noticeably better PPP in transition than the half court but for the Gators, that isn’t the case.
Many people have been screaming for the Gators to play faster and get into transition but right now when they’ve had those opportunities they haven’t been able to convert. Once the Gators can improve on scoring off the break I’m sure they’ll look for more fast break chances but right now the numbers don’t indicate the Gators should be trying to score on run-outs all the time.
It should also be noted that of Florida’s 670 possessions, 130 of them have been taken in transition or in early offense before the defense is totally set and dug in so they probably haven’t played as slowly as their reputation has made it out to be.
Another element of the game hurting Florida’s offense is their challenge with baseline out of bounds and sideline out of bounds (BLOB and SLOB) plays.
This will come as a surprise to many people as the Gators dominated with BLOB plays a year ago and it was one of their best opportunities to score.
Sadly, this year on 41 BLOB and SLOB opportunities the Gators are at a woeful 0.585 PPP.
That dismal mark isn’t helping their offense at all and if they converted those at a rate more similar to last season they’d be in much better shape offensively.
Takeaways From The Data
There are a ton of numbers here and I know a lot of you simply want to know what would be best for the team to run.
Mixing in the numbers with the eye test of spending 8 hours watching every Gator offensive possessions there are definitely some takeaways.
First of all, the Princeton offense seems to be a better fit than the typical motion offense for Florida’s starting group. There aren’t enough individual playmakers to make the motion offense a threat and the more structured Princeton look has been more effective. They’ve done really well recently using the Princeton and the team would be wise to use it as their primary formation when they aren’t calling a set.
However, Florida’s best motion offense players come off the bench and that’s Tre Mann and Ques Glover, both players who can create off the bounce and get to the rim. If the Gators want to get in stretches of motion offense they should make sure it’s these players on the floor, especially Mann who thrives when he has the ball and the chance to break down his defender and make decisions.
In terms of called sets, the wedge ball screen has been fantastic recently and it’s been the catalyst for some excellent looks. Their other balls screen variations with the roll and replace or the side ball screen action has also been really good so they should get some calls as well.
When Nembhard has drawn criticism from fans it has almost always been when the team has been playing motion and he’s tasked with trying to create offense off closeouts individually and that’s not his strength. He’s much better operating out of ball screens and the numbers and eye test both show that. For that reason, expect a lot of the ball screen calls moving forward.
Right now it’s not clear what the best set to get Kerry Blackshear Jr. looks is. He’s always a threat as a screener and will get some easy buckets out of that but the Gators would be well served to figure out some actions that get him space on the block to score near the hoop. That particular play hasn’t been established yet so we’ll probably see some new actions to the playbook added soon as they try to get him going.
Florida hasn’t been crisp offensively but some of the criticism has gotten to the point of ridiculousness, such as many suggesting that the Gators don’t even run an offense. Hopefully this helped lay out what Florida is doing and gives you some plays to watch out for the next time you watch a game.