There are a number of analytic tools available to evaluate a basketball team to see what’s working and what isn’t, and recently lineup data has come onto the scene as a way to get an advantage.
Lineup data allows coaches to see how particular groupings of players have performed together and it can inform future decisions with how coaches want to set their rotations.
A huge disclaimer here–lineup data is inherently a bit noisy and these statistics shouldn’t be treated as gospel. These stats don’t account for the quality of the opposing players on the floor, and it doesn’t always account for time and score. So, if one lineup is slightly better than another, it wouldn’t necessarily be fair to call it an open and shut cause that the lineup with better numbers is the superior one. However, if the difference is massive, there could be something to it.
To evaluate the lineups we will be using offensive rating, defensive rating, and the most important number–net rating. Offensive and defense rating are points per possession multiplied by 100, and net rating is simply the difference between the two ratings.
For example: if a lineup is scoring 1.12 points per possession offensively and allow 1.00 points per possession defensively, they would have:
An offensive rating of 112.
A defensive rating of 100.
A net rating of +12.
The most important number is the net rating, as you obviously want to have more points than your opponent.
Now that you know how lineups will be evaluated, let’s look at some of Florida’s most used lineups and see how they have fared. All lineup data numbers come from my partners at Pivot Analysis who have a powerful tool to evaluate lineups.
Kyle Lofton
Trey Bonham
Will Richard
Alex Fudge
Colin Castleton
Offensive Rating: 95
Defensive Rating: 90
Net Rating: +5
Here is the starting group Todd Golden has liked recently. Ideally, you’re looking for an offensive rating of above 100 so this lineup has struggled to put the ball in the hoop, but they have been holding things down defensively. It’s good to be in the positives, but +5 is far from dominant and you’d like to see a more robust number from a starting unit.
Kyle Lofton
Trey Bonham
Will Richard
CJ Felder
Colin Castleton
Offensive Rating: 123
Defensive Rating: 98
Net Rating: +25
This is the starting group the Gators were using before Golden traded out CJ Felder for Alex Fudge, and you can see the numbers have been much better. There are going to be a number of things that contributed to this group’s quality production, but you have to wonder if there is something to the Gators’ net rating jumping by 20 with Felder on the floor over Fudge. Felder hasn’t provided a lot offensively from a production standpoint but he’s a willing ball mover and a physical screen setter and the offense and overall performance has been excellent with him alongside the starters.
Trey Bonham
Riley Kugel
Kowacie Reeves
Alex Fudge
Colin Castleton
Offensive Rating: 122
Defensive Rating: 88
Net Rating: +32
Spoiler alert–you are going to see a lot of lineups with Bonham as the point guard that are going to have very good numbers. This lineup has been particularly good from the three-point line, shooting 46% from deep.
Kyle Lofton
Kowacie Reeves
Will Richard
CJ Felder
Colin Castleton
Offensive Rating: 101
Defensive Rating: 82
Net Rating: +19
This was the opening lineup to start the season, though we haven’t seen it in a while. Looking at the numbers, you have to wonder why we haven’t seen it more recently. The offense wasn’t stellar but the defense has been extra stout which makes sense given all the length at the wings with Reeves next to Richard and the bulk that Felder brings to the “4.”
Kyle Lofton
Kowacie Reeves
Will Richard
Alex Fudge
Colin Castleton
Offensive Rating: 116
Defensive Rating: 128
Net Rating: -12
Here is where lineup data can be pretty interesting. We saw that Lofton-Reeves-Richard-Castleton-Felder was effective, but when you sub in Fudge for Felder, things take a huge dip. Given the skill sets of these two players, it makes some sense that the lineup with Fudge would be better offensively but not as good defensively, whereas the lineup with Felder might not be as potent offensively but has been a bit more responsible defensively. You have probably noticed in recent games that Felder has been utilized a lot less, and you’re seeing that some of the lineups without Felder have struggled.
Another way that lineup data can be used is to see how different two-man combinations of players affect a team’s production. This is especially useful in evaluating backcourt and frontcourt combinations. Let’s begin by looking at some frontcourt combinations. The numbers are how the team performed when these combinations were together on the court.
Colin Castleton
Alex Fudge
Offensive Rating: 107
Defensive Rating: 92
Net Rating: +15
Colin Castleton
CJ Felder
Offensive Rating: 113
Defensive Rating: 88
Net Rating: +24
Colin Castleton
Jason Jitoboh
Offensive Rating: 95
Defensive Rating: 150
Net Rating: -55
Jason Jitoboh
CJ Felder
Offensive Rating: 107
Defensive Rating: 97
Net Rating: +10
Jason Jitoboh
Alex Fudge
Offensive Rating: 116
Defensive Rating: 115
Net Rating: +1
A few takeaways:
Once again, the evidence of lineups with Felder in instead of Fudge is piling up. Fudge has been a spark who provides scoring ability and athleticism that Felder doesn’t have, but when you continually see lineups that feature Felder in place of Fudge perform better, you have to wonder if we should be seeing more of Felder.
Another note–the two-big lineup of Castleton and Jitoboh has not worked at all. Before the season when it was being discussed I expressed a lot of skepticism and looking at how it has worked so far the Gators have predictably struggled to guard, something that is very difficult to do with two centers on the floor.
Let’s look at the backcourt combinations:
Kyle Lofton
Trey Bonham
Offensive Rating: 97
Defensive Rating: 99
Net Rating: -2
Kyle Lofton
Kowacie Reeves
Offensive Rating: 108
Defensive Rating: 88
Net Rating: +20
Kyle Lofton
Myreon Jones
Offensive Rating: 108
Defensive Rating: 86
Net Rating: +22
Trey Bonham
Myreon Jones
Offensive Rating: 136
Defensive Rating: 89
Net Rating: +47
Trey Bonham
Kowacie Reeves
Offensive Rating: 114
Defensive Rating: 91
Net Rating: +23
The interesting takeaway here has to be that pretty much every combination of backcourt players has worked…except for the combination that has played the most minutes together in Kyle Lofton and Trey Bonham. Both players are pretty pure point guards, and it seems that both might seem to be at their best when they are the clear lead guard in lineups. You have to wonder if the Gators need to consider starting a different combination than Lofton and Bonham together and try to stagger their minutes in order to keep one of them at the point at all times.
The last lineup data tool we’ll look at is on/off numbers–the team’s performance with a player on the floor versus off the floor. Once again this data can be noisy and can miss some context, but it also can give an indication of who is having a positive or negative impact while being on the court. You’ll see a new term used here–net rating differential. That’s the net rating of the team with a player on the floor versus off the floor, so if a player has a positive differential the team has been better with them on the floor and if it’s negative, the team has been better with the player off the floor.
Colin Castleton
Net Rating ON: +16
Net Rating OFF: +2
Net Differential: +14
Will Richard
Net Rating ON: +2
Net Rating OFF: +30
Net Differential: -28
Kyle Lofton
Net Rating ON: +5
Net Rating OFF: +25
Net Differential: -20
Alex Fudge
Net Rating ON: +10
Net Rating OFF: +15
Net Differential: -5
Trey Bonham
Net Rating ON: +16
Net Rating OFF: +9
Net Differential: +7
Kowacie Reeves
Net Rating ON: +24
Net Rating OFF: +3
Net Differential: +21
Riley Kugel
Net Rating ON: +5
Net Rating OFF: +17
Net Differential: -12
Myreon Jones
Net Rating ON: +29
Net Rating OFF: +17
Net Differential: +12
CJ Felder
Net Rating ON: +23
Net Rating OFF: +7
Net Differential: +16
Jason Jitoboh
Net Rating ON: -3
Net Rating OFF: +18
Net Differential: -21
Niels Lane
Net Rating ON: +25
Net Rating OFF: +11
Net Differential: +14
There are a lot of takeaways here, and it has to start with the negative net rating differentials of several of Florida’s starters.
Kyle Lofton’s poor on/off numbers are made even more interesting by the fact that Trey Bonham’s numbers are positive. Looking more deeply into the numbers you’ll see that the Gators have a 102 offensive rating with Lofton on the floor as opposed to a 125 offensive rating with him off the floor. For a starting point guard, you don’t like to see the offense be significantly better when he’s off the floor, and it’s something that the staff likely needs to investigate in the film. We talked earlier about breaking up the Lofton and Bonham starting lineup, and to see who should remain starting we can look to see how the offense has worked with each player running point.
With Lofton at point guard with Bonham off the floor, the Gators have a 105 offensive rating.
With Bonham at point guard and Lofton off the floor, the Gators have a 124 offensive rating.
Like I said earlier, lineup data should always be taken with a grain of salt, but there is a lot of evidence to suggest that the Gators might be a better team with Bonham as the lead guard on the floor.
The on/off splits are also interesting when it comes to the power forward spot where CJ Felder’s differential is significantly better than Fudge’s, something that won’t be a huge surprise since you’ve seen the data already presented in this article. The Gators have an 89 defensive rating with Felder on the floor, the best number on the Gators, and their offensive rating with him on the floor is still 112 as opposed to 110 for Fudge.
To begin the season Kowacie Reeves was a starter but he has since been sent to the bench with Will Richard becoming the coaching staff’s clear option at small forward. It was certainly curious to see Richard’s struggling differential while lineups with Reeves have been very effective.
While we are almost halfway through the season, the sample size for lineup data is still small but there are a lot of interesting notes to take away. When you see how some of these lineups have performed, suddenly some of the recent struggles seem a bit more predictable given how the Gators have continually gone back to these struggling lineups. It might be time for the Gators to shake up some of their rotations and lineup data such as this could inform who should get more run and what combinations of players might be best playing together.