What are Florida’s chances at the NCAA Tournament?

Florida baseball won a critical series against No.9 Georgia to close out their 2024 regular season with 13 conference wins, the benchmark they needed to give them a realistic shot at a postseason bid. Since the SEC expanded to 14 teams in 2013, only Alabama has made a regional while winning fewer than 13 regular-season SEC games (12-17).

Since 2013, SEC teams that have logged 13 regular season wins have a 5-12 success rate in terms of regional bids (41.6%). 14 regular season wins increases your chances to 75%.

Historically speaking, Florida’s odds of making the tournament are still stacked against them, but that is likely not the case in 2024 as five SEC teams are tied at 13 conference wins (Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Florida, LSU, and Alabama).

There are six SEC teams that are considered very likely to make a Regional (Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, Arkansas, Texas A&M, and Mississippi State). That leaves the five teams tied at 13 wins fighting for an at-large bid in the NCAA’s.

The selection committee has never put 11 SEC teams into the NCAA Tournament, so it’s very possible that one or two of the five schools are left out of a Regional.

What will happen on selection day? Will the SEC get a record breaking 11 teams in the field? If not, who’s left out? Let’s compare the five teams at 13 SEC wins.

FLORIDA (28-26, 13-17 SEC)

RPI: 24

SOS: 1

Q1 wins: 13

Q2 wins: 2

VANDERBILT (35-20, 13-17 SEC)

RPI: 27

SOS: 15

Q1 wins: 9

Q2 wins: 4

LSU (36-20, 13-17 SEC)

RPI: 30

SOS: 21

Q1 wins: 6

Q2 wins: 12

Alabama (33-21, 13-17 SEC)

RPI: 18

SOS: 4

Q1 wins: 12

Q2 wins: 4

South Carolina 33-21 (13-17 SEC)

RPI: 19

SOS: 8

Q1 wins: 9

Q2 wins: 6

What does Florida have going for them?

Florida has the third highest RPI out of the group of five, an analytical tool the committee uses in their evaluation process, which measures a team’s strength of schedule and its ability to secure victories against different levels of competition. The Gators not only have the top ranked strength of schedule out of the group, but they have the No.1 SOS in all of college baseball, something the committee will certainly take into account. Florida baseball also has the most quad 1 wins out of the five teams.

What Florida doesn’t have

Florida simply doesn’t have the number of wins the other four teams do. The Gators have just 28 wins on the season with the next lowest win total being 33 by both South Carolina and Alabama. However, the Gators played a much more difficult non-conference schedule than most teams do, having to face No.10 FSU three times, Miami, as well as other in-state schools that tend to be more talented than other non-P5 schools due to the baseball rich state of Florida. That shows up in Florida’s strength of schedule.

The Gators also lost series to South Carolina and Vanderbilt (didn’t play Alabama) but did secure a series victory at LSU.

Will the SEC Tournament matter?

The SEC Tournament provides teams a chance to strengthen their resume before the committee makes their decision. Four of the five 13-win teams play each other in the first round of the tournament as Florida is set to take on Vanderbilt and Alabama is set to face South Carolina.

This means that two of the five teams are guaranteed to lose in the first round of the tournament, potentially three as LSU faces Georgia in the first round.

It’s always difficult to tell just how much the SEC Tournament means in the eyes of the committee, but this could be a good thing for the Gators as one win in the SEC tournament could secure Florida a Regional given their RPI and SOS metrics. There’s also a good chance Florida makes it even with a loss on Tuesday.