After a 2023 trip to the CWS Finals, Florida baseball’s 2024 season has not gone according to plan. Entering the year ranked No.2 in D1 Baseball’s preseason poll, the Gators hold a 22-21 (9-12 SEC) record with 11 regular season games remaining.
Florida’s postseason hopes are very much in play for two primary reasons. Following the Gators’ game three win over No.2 Arkansas, Kevin O’Sullivan’s ballclub jumped to No.22 in Rating Percentage Index (RPI), which assesses a team’s strength of schedule and ability to secure victories over various levels of competition. The NCAA committee uses this rating system to evaluate teams for the tournament.
The second reason Florida is not far away from clinching a postseason bid is their strength of schedule, which ranks No.1 in all of college baseball. The Gators have played weekend series’ against No.1 Texas A&M, No.2 Arkansas, No.15 South Carolina, No.16 Mississippi State and a midweek series against No.7 FSU. Florida also has upcoming series’ against No.3 Tennessee, No.8 Kentucky, and No.19 Georgia, so their top ranked strength of schedule is not going anywhere.
Florida took the series from No.1 TAMU, delivering two of the Aggies’ six losses in 2024. The Gators also took the series from No.16 MSU and took one game from No.2 Arkansas and No.15 South Carolina.
FLORIDA MUST BE .500
One of the only requirements for making the NCAA Tournament is that you must have a .500 record or better unless you win your respective conference tournament, which gives you an automatic bid into the postseason. This rule typically doesn’t come into play for any team and hasn’t been an issue at Florida for as long as I’ve been alive.
With 11 games remaining, Florida must win at least five more games to even be considered for the NCAA Tournament. However, I wouldn’t look too much into the .500 or better rule because if Florida can only win five of their remaining 11 games, the Gators’ resume will likely not be strong enough for an NCAA bid.
MUST WIN MIDWEEK GAMES
Florida has a 6-6 record on midweek games this season, which is a big reason as to why the Gators are even having to worry about being at .500. It’s imperative that Florida wins their remaining two midweek games against FAU and USF. These games won’t bolster their resume, but losing either or could be detrimental to Florida’s postseason hopes. In reality, the Gators have to go into every game as if it’s the postseason in order to make the postseason.
FINISH WITH 13 REGULAR SEASON SEC WINS
Florida is currently 9-12 in the SEC. The Gators need to log at least 13 regular season conference wins to give them a shot at postseason play. With nine conference games remaining, winning four doesn’t seem all that successful, but Florida is set to face No.3 Tennessee, No.8 Kentucky, and No.19 Georgia on the road. Ideally, Florida wins two of these three series, which would put them in a great position for postseason play.
The Gators have done just enough to keep their head above water, but at some point they are going to need to win series’. After losing four straight SEC series’, it’s important Florida ends that streak, preferably this weekend as No.3 Tennessee comes into town.
MAKE NOISE IN SEC TOURNAMENTÂ
Florida baseball doesn’t typically have to worry about boosting their resume in the SEC Tournament, but this year will be a different story pending a great run to end the regular season.
How many wins they need in postseason will depend on how many regular season conference wins they finish with. At this point, nothing is guaranteed and Florida baseball needs to win as many games as possible. If they win 13 conference games, they may need to win two in the SEC tournament. With 14, they might need one. If Florida baseball goes 15-15 in conference play, the Gators will feel fairly safe regardless. This is also assuming Florida takes care of business in midweek games, which is also far from a guarantee.