The final weekend of the season pits two of the best teams in the SEC against each other as the No. 1 Florida Gators travel to No. 8 LSU. To preview the series we spoke with The Advocate’s Chandler Rome, who has covered the team all year, to see what the Gators can expect traveling down to Baton Rouge.
Q: There are some head scratching losses on the schedule, especially early to Lamar and Sacramento State. Is that just the case of it being a young team and early in the season?
Just speaking for those two losses — LSU blew an eight-run lead against Lamar in its first true road game of the season and blew a 4-3, ninth-inning lead against Sacramento State in a game Alex Lange started. Both were in February, the first month of the season for a team that replaced eight of nine starters. LSU’s got some baffling losses — a 7-0, two-hit nightmare against McNeese State at home is probably the worst of them — and most can be attributed to lacking focus in midweek games. Four of LSU’s 16 losses are against in-state midweek opponents; games in which the team admits it overlooked opponents.
LSU has won nine games in a row. Is this the best the Tigers have played all season?
It’s important to evaluate the streak with perspective. LSU’s two sweeps were against Arkansas and Tennessee. If the season ended today, those would be the two teams left out of the SEC Tournament. Nevertheless, the Tigers did what a “good team” is supposed to do — beat teams it is better than. I look back to LSU’s two-week stretch where it took two of three from Vanderbilt then swept Missouri as its best stretch of the season, but the intricacies of this streak are interesting. For a team buoyed most of the year by its offense, LSU’s won five one-run games in this streak, a testament to a bullpen that’s rounding into form and now has multiple, veteran arms pitching well at the right time.
Friday night in the SEC (in this case Thursday) always means a premium pitching matchup. Logan Shore is 10-0 and hasn’t lost a decision in over a year. Lange is coming off of a great start against Tennessee and at least four quality starts in a row. How do you see that game going with those arms?
The matchup almost didn’t happen. Paul Mainieri was very close to throwing Riley Smith on Thursday against Shore, but Lange “politicked” his coach. That, coupled with a bad Friday weather forecast, gave us a big-league style duel. Lange and Shore are actually buddies — the two have been texting all week — but I’d assume any relationships are halted Thursday. Lange hasn’t been as dominant as his freshman season, struggling to command his fastball and finding that teams are laying off his power curveball in the dirt. Lange’s at his best when he pitches ahead in the count and is throwing his curveball for called strikes and, if he does that, he can match Shore inning for inning.
What is the more intriguing matchup to you: Florida’s pitching staff vs. LSU bats or LSU pitching staff vs. UF bats, a group that will be without leading hitter Pete Alonso?
LSU’s touched up some premier arms this season. Vanderbilt’s Jordan Sheffield and Mississippi State’s Dakota Hudson (seven earned runs) Missouri’s Tanner Houck (eight earned runs) were battered pretty well by the Tigers, so they’ve had success against “big-time arms” all year, though they haven’t faced as deep a rotation or staff as Florida’s all season. Florida strikes out hitters better than any team in the country. Going into the series, LSU’s only struck out 242 times all season in a conference where the next-highest number is 307. If LSU can avoid big strikeout numbers against this Gators pitching staff — which fans nearly 11 every nine innings — it can position itself for success.
Florida needs to win at least two in Baton Rouge to clinch the SEC East. LSU probably needs to take at least one or two this week and a win in Hoover to have a chance to host a regional. Who takes the series?
LSU hasn’t been swept at home in an SEC series since, coincidentally, Florida did the deed in 2011. I hate everything about the clichéd notion of “Alex Box magic” and, as an aside, never want to see the word “possum” again after these last two weeks, but there’s no denying the Tigers play at a heightened level in their packed ballpark. The Gators have an embarrassment of riches, are the most talented team in the country and should win this series. But I’ve seen good teams wither in this ballpark and Florida, without Peter Alonso, could struggle at the plate against an LSU bullpen that’s suddenly one of the strongest facets of the team. Give me Lange besting Shore, Puk taking game two and LSU winning a slugfest in game three for a big upset.