High expectations are nothing new for the Gators baseball program. They’ve advanced to the College World Series seven times under coach Kevin O’Sullivan, winning the national championship in 2017. They annually recruit as well as anyone in the country and churn out MLB Draft picks like a conveyor belt.

Still, this team feels a little different. Thanks to the cancelation of the 2020 season due to COVID-19 and MLB shortening its draft to five rounds, this is a super team. The unanimous No. 1 Gators return eight starters in the field, all three weekend starting pitchers and every key piece of the bullpen from a team that finished the truncated 2020 season ranked No. 1. And they’re adding another stellar recruiting class to the mix.

With all of that talent in place, Gator fans have every reason to expect nothing less than the program’s second national championship come June.

With the 2021 Gators set to embark on their journey Friday when they take on No. 21 Miami, it’s time to take an in-depth look at the team.

Given O’Sullivan’s reputation as a pitching guru, it’s only fitting that we begin with the pitching staff. We’ll begin with the starters and then break down the bullpen.

Starting Pitchers

Probable Weekend Rotation

Game 1: Junior Tommy Mace (2020: 4 GS, 3-0, 1.67 ERA, 27 IP, 21 H, 5 BB, 26 K)

Game 2: Junior Jack Leftwich (2020: 4 GS, 2-0, 4.15 ERA, 21.2 IP, 16 H, 8 BB, 23 K)

Game 3: Freshman Hunter Barco (2020: 4 GS, 2-0, 1.40 ERA, 19.1 IP, 11 H, 6 BB, 26 K)

Overview: At this time last year, 2021 looked like it would be a rebuilding year for UF’s rotation. Mace and Leftwich looked like surefire top draft picks. Instead, they went undrafted in the shortened draft, and their unexpected returns have turned the rotation into a position of strength once again. Mace, a Preseason All-SEC Second Team selection, could sneak into the end of the first round of the 2021 draft with a strong season. He doesn’t have the electric stuff that you’ve come to expect from an O’Sullivan Friday night guy, and he’s not going to strike out a ton of hitters. Instead, he relies on commanding the bottom of the strike zone with his low- to mid-90s sinker, his cutter and his curveball. When he’s on, he generates a bunch of ground ball outs and quick innings. He has that bulldog, fight-for-every-out mentality that you want in your ace. Leftwich, meanwhile, has been inconsistent throughout his career. He’s yet to produce a sub-4 earned run average for a season, and he allowed nine earned runs over his final two starts of 2020. His fastball sits in the mid-90s and occasionally touches 97. His changeup can be devastating, as he throws it about 10 miles per hour slower than his heater and gets some significant arm-side run on it. Barco is the best pro prospect of the trio, as he was once considered a potential first-rounder in high school before deciding to go to college. The lefty would be the Friday night starter for all but a handful of teams around the country. Instead, he’ll duke it out on Sundays for another year at UF. After throwing his fastball in the low-90s last season, Barco said that he is touching 97 miles per hour this spring. He also features an excellent slider and an above average changeup from his high three-quarters arm slot. This has the potential to be one of the best weekend rotations in the country.

Three Questions

1. Can Mace put together a complete season?

In his first season as Florida’s ace in 2019, Mace posted a 5.32 earned run average. That figure dropped by more than 3 ½ runs per game in the brief 2020 season. However, like with everything else associated with last season’s torrid start, we’ll never know if he would’ve kept up that pace for the whole season. He never started an SEC game, and Miami was the only power conference opponent he faced. As discussed in the previous section, he’s not going to overwhelm SEC foes with stuff. That makes command even more important for him than it is for most pitchers. He has little margin for error. We’ve yet to find out if Mace’s pitching style can work in the SEC for a full season.

2. Can Leftwich command his fastball more consistently?

This is the biggest thing holding him back. When he throws his fastball for strikes and gets ahead in the count, it makes him unpredictable. He can either drop one of his nasty changeups and get batters to swing way in front of it, or he can blow them away with another fastball. He looks unhittable when he commands his fastball, as was the case in his complete game two-hit shutout at Missouri in 2019. Unfortunately, he’s been erratic. Too often, he’s dug himself into holes by missing with his fastball, which has caused him to walk too many guys and give up some hard contact. His changeup does no good if he can’t put himself in position to use it. When he has lost command of his fastball, he hasn’t usually gotten it back quickly enough. Toward that end, Leftwich said improving the mental aspect of his game was something he focused on this offseason, and he believes he will handle adversity better this season. The Gators need that to be the case.

3. Where is Barco at in his development?

It’s hard to know what to make of Barco. On the one hand, he feels like somebody his teammates and coaches should feel comfortable with given his elite skillset and solid 2020 campaign. Because of that experience he got last season, he enters his second freshman season with confidence and a knowledge of what it takes to be successful at this level. However, you could also argue that the way the 2020 season ended could negatively impact him. He never had to go through those growing pains and poor outings that are common for freshmen. He’ll enter his second college season quite possibly having never had a bad game in his life. How will he respond to obstacles this season, and can he deliver for the Gators in tense moments, say in Game 3 of a Super Regional?

Bullpen

Key Returners

Sophomore Ben Specht (2020: 9 app, 2-0, 0.75 ERA, 12 IP, 6 H, 4 BB, 16K)

Sophomore Christian Scott (2020: 7 app, 2-0, 1.20 ERA, 15 IP, 11 H, 6 BB, 16 K)

Freshman Ryan Cabarcas (2020: 7 app, 0-0, 1.29 ERA, 7 IP, 4 H, 2 BB, 10 K)

Sophomore Nick Pogue (2020: 7 app, 1-1, 5.23 ERA, 10.1 IP, 15 H, 3 BB, 17 K)

Freshman Tyler Nesbitt (2020: 5 app, 1-0, 0.00 ERA, 11.2 IP, 7 H, 3 BB, 17 K)

Overview: O’Sullivan has an arm for every conceivable situation standing by in the bullpen. Like all good bullpens, this one is built around a shutdown closer. After a rough debut season in 2019, Specht emerged as one of the best closers in the country during the abbreviated 2020 season, posting three saves and getting credit for the wins in the first two games against Miami. The Preseason All-SEC Second Team selection features a mid-90s fastball and a tight curveball that generates a bunch of swings and misses. Unlike a traditional closer, Specht can be extended out to two or three innings if needed. Scott is a fiery competitor who should prove valuable as a set-up man. His fastball touches 95 and 96 at times, and he also possesses a good slider and a developing changeup. Pogue is what O’Sullivan refers to as a “tweener.” He can pitch near the end of games, give them multiple innings in relief or even start games, which he’s done six times over the last two years. He’s built like a linebacker and is another fastball, slider guy. Junior college transfer Franco Aleman is another “tweener.” He’s regarded as one of the top pro prospects on the team, as he features a mid-90s fastball and a tight curveball. Control has been an issue for him in scrimmages this offseason, however. If O’Sullivan needs a lefty to come in and win a key matchup, he can turn to Cabarcas, Jordan Butler or Timmy Manning. If he desperately needs a strikeout, he can call on flamethrower Brandon Sproat, who may touch 100 miles per hour on occasions this season. If O’Sullivan needs a double play, he can turn to David Luethje, who excels at attacking the bottom of the strike zone. The bullpen is the strength of this team and will be the reason the Gators win the national championship if they do so.

Three Questions

1. How long will it take O’Sullivan to figure out roles?

While you’ll never hear a coach or a fan complain about having too many good options in the bullpen, the depth will provide O’Sullivan with a difficult challenge. Other than Specht as the closer, there don’t appear to be any established roles entering the season. There’s a psychological element to pitching that needs to be sorted out. Some pitchers fare well when inheriting highly stressful situations, while others perform better when they start a clean inning. Some guys can throw multiple frames, while others may need to be limited to one inning or even one or two batters. Not everyone is mentally prepared to handle the same situations. Unfortunately, the 2020 season was canceled just as roles were starting to be defined. O’Sullivan’s history suggests that he’ll figure it out, but it might take a few weeks.

2. Who will step up as the Gators’ top left-handed reliever?

This is the bullpen’s only weakness. Butler posted a 6.23 earned run average in 2020 after checking in at 5.76 the year prior. He simply throws too many balls over the heart of the plate. However, O’Sullivan commented a few weeks ago that Butler was pitching better than he ever has before, so he’ll get another chance. Cabarcas was masterful last season, but, obviously, seven innings isn’t a sufficient sample size. Manning is a highly regarded freshman who could be a weekend starter next season. He’s got a big looping curveball, but his fastball command is spotty, and he doesn’t have a changeup yet. Trey Van Der Weide is the only other lefty on the roster, and he’s yet to appear in a game at UF after transferring in from USC Upstate prior to last season. The Gators need at least one of them to emerge as a dependable situational lefty.

3. How much will O’Sullivan rely on his bullpen?

There’s a fine balance here that he needs to find. On the one hand, if your starter gets into a jam in the fifth or six inning, you’d be foolish to let your collection of elite relief arms collect dust in the bullpen. However, on the other hand, you don’t want to micromanage things by pulling your starter too soon, a lesson that Tampa Bay Rays’ manager Kevin Cash taught the world during Game 6 of the 2020 World Series. When you’ve got as many options as O’Sullivan does, it can be tempting to try to use all of them. He needs to find the happy medium.