What to make of Florida only having one NFL draft pick in 2024

Ricky Pearsall extended Florida’s streak of having at least one player drafted every year since 1952. In a triumph of good coaching and top tier work ethic, he earned his way into the first round. That extended a streak of at least one Gator taken in the first round in the past five seasons: CJ Henderson in 2020, Kyle Pitts and Kadarius Toney in 2021, Kaiir Elam in 2022, Anthony Richardson in 2023, and Pearsall in 2024.

And then… nothing. No other Gators heard their names called. UF produced just one draft pick in 2024. Pearsall going in the first round at least makes it feel more legit than extending the scoring streak with a single safety or last-minute field goal, although Pearsall was a transfer and not a high school signee to the program. However you want to frame the event, it was not a great showing.

That said, let’s put a few things in context.

For one possible comparison, take USC and its seven draft selections. It had only draft pick who was signed by former head coach Clay Helton and one other who transferred in under Helton in 2021. The five other picks they had were all Lincoln Riley-era pickups, either playing in Los Angeles for two years (three) or acting as one-year rentals (two). Helton was Dan Mullen-like from a USC recruiting standards standpoint, if you aren’t familiar with him.

LSU had six picks, but only half of them were Ed Orgeron signees. Coach O is actually known as a great recruiter, unlike Helton. The other three choices were a pair of two-year transfers and a single one-year rental.

You can even look at Oregon, which is doing great on both sides of the ball (unlike USC and LSU) and previously had a highly regarded recruiter in Mario Cristobal. It had eight selections, but half were Dan Lanning-era transfers. Half of those transfers were one-year rentals.

I mention all these programs because their head coaches took over the same year Billy Napier did and had a lot more draft picks this year. The difference is almost entirely due to following a better recruiter than Mullen (Brian Kelly, Lanning) or scoring big in the portal (Riley).

And even then, Florida has at least three more portal pickups from Napier’s first two years with a chance at being drafted in Montrell Johnson, Cam Jackson, and Caleb Banks. I’m still a bit surprised Johnson didn’t go pro due to the miles-on-the-tires factor with running backs. We’ll see how Kam Waites continues to develop, and I could maybe see some NFL team possibly taking a late round flier on Graham Mertz if he plays well again. Napier hasn’t landed any instant draft-quality types outside of O’Cyrus Torrence, but he also took more transfers with more years of eligibility left than a lot of coaches have.

In Gator circles in a few different places, I’ve seen some folks looking where to place blame. Is it Mullen’s fault for not recruiting better? Napier’s fault for subpar development and portal activity? Both?

Before we go too far, recognize the fact that timing and luck played a part for UF not having more picks. I still think Johnson probably should’ve gone pro to get paid, but maybe Florida Victorious is taking good care of him now in a way that a pre-NIL prospect couldn’t experience. If Justus Boone doesn’t get hurt in the preseason a year ago, he might’ve played well enough to turn pro for this year’s draft. Kingsley Eguakun, who signed a UDFA contract with Detroit, may have been drafted if not for him battling injury all last year.

Florida also only had two guys taken in the 2012 draft — Jaye Howard in the 4th round and Chris Rainey in the 5th — and back then the draft-eligible crop was all Urban Meyer recruits. Everything goes in cycles, and sometimes the cycles line up for extra large or extra small draft classes.

That said, the cycles occur because of the actions taken by people. The 2012 draft crop was not big because Meyer signed small classes in 2008 and 2009 thanks to signing two large classes in 2006 and 2007. And then, a decent number of the stars from the ’06 haul chose to come back in ’09 to try to repeat as champs. Like I said: it wasn’t some mysterious alignment of the planets that gave Florida a small 2012 draft class, but rather it came out of a series of choices by a lot of people.

I’ve already addressed who Napier has taken out of the portal, but if I did the counting correctly, only linebacker Ty’Ron Hopper has been drafted among the Napier-era portal exits prior to the 2023 regular season. In other words, Hopper is probably the only draft pick UF missed out on last week. There will be more among those who left in that span, though: Antwuan Powell-Ryland seems like a shoo-in, and Joshua Braun, Michael Tarquin, and Donovan McMillon could get drafted as well. Maybe more.

But Florida has a number of draft eligible players who could hear their names called next year, from the ones I’ve already mentioned to Jason Marshall, Shemar James, and Austin Barber. The next draft after that will be when guys like Tre Wilson and TJ Searcy from the 2023 class can go for it, assuming we don’t see an exodus after a hypothetical Napier dismissal in the meantime.

The peer comparisons show the answer to the series of questions above to be “both”. Mullen didn’t recruit well enough; Scott Stricklin said as much when he fired his two-time employee. Napier has not done as good a job as some of his peers at pulling immediate draft-quality players out of the transfer portal. On top of those, circumstances also led to some guys not declaring this year when they otherwise might have.

That’s how Florida gets to one draft pick in a year, but these kinds of confluences of events happen to everyone. After all, only USC and Michigan have longer draft streaks than UF does. Getting one pick this time around stings, but more Gators will hear their names called next year.