Kentucky didn’t have as easy of a time as Florida did in Week 1, as the Wildcats beat Central Michigan by a score of 35-20. Because the Chippewas were an actual FBS team, they at least could pressure UK in ways that UF didn’t get from Charleston Southern.
For my preview piece, I’m going to focus on the Kentucky offense. The Wildcat defense, which uses a 3-4 base, was mostly fine on the game. CMU’s quarterback was a WR/TE player last year and had trouble completing anything beyond a few yards up the field, while only the Chippewa short yardage back had any kind of reasonable success rate on the ground.
Aside from a couple of busts here and there, UK’s defense was fine. It’s not that different than last year’s, which is appropriate considering it returned 90% of its production.
The offense, meanwhile, is something of a work in progress. The only reason this game wasn’t a blowout was because the ‘Cats coughed it up four times. That includes a fumble return TD for the Chips and an interception that set up a six-yard field goal drive. The Wildcats nearly threw picks on at least two other occasions, and they recovered three of their five fumbles. As bad as having a -4 in the turnover department was, it could’ve been worse.
Mark Stoops and offensive coordinator Eddie Gran had a hard time picking a quarterback starter in the preseason, and it was evident why there was a close race.
The starter last week and this is Terry Wilson. He originally signed with Oregon out of high school but made a JUCO pit stop on his way to Kentucky. Befitting the Ducks’ offense, Wilson is a fast, mobile quarterback.
He is in Lexington, however, because he fell down the depth chart in Eugene. The reason is not his legs.
Against Central Michigan, Wilson wasn’t always accurate on longer throws, and he had no touch on some of the shorter ones. One of his interceptions was a floater where he left the ball well short of where it needed to go.
He made almost the same exact short-armed throw in the second half, but fortunately for him, that one hit the back of an unsuspecting defender instead of being picked. He has good arm strength when he wants to use it and will hit on a couple of longer passes, but he’s not going to beat the Gators through the air.
Despite the adventures with his passing, Wilson’s running makes up for it. He can move around well and has good acceleration.
The Gators won’t be able to afford to sit back in pass coverage while Wilson is in the game. Here is a play where CMU does exactly that, keeping its two safeties deep and only sending five players towards the backfield. A swing pass fake from running back Benny Snell, Jr. draws the linebacker, leaving plenty of space for Wilson to take off on a planned quarterback draw. Wilson easily picks up the first down and a few more.
Because UF has far better cover corners than Central Michigan does, I suspect sitting back in pass coverage isn’t what Todd Grantham has in mind anyway. I expect to see Marco Wilson, CJ Henderson, and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson handling wideouts on their own with everyone else working on stopping the run.
One other thing to mention is that Wilson will probably get the lion’s share of snaps like he did in Week 1 despite how close the quarterback race was. The Wildcats’ interior offensive line played well against CMU, but it is still rotating a pair of players at left tackle trying to replace the starter who was lost to injury in the preseason. Because tackle might be an issue and Florida has a lot of scary edge rushers, Wilson’s mobility will come in handy.
The other quarterback is Gunnar Hoak, who is more of a pocket passer. He’s not a statue, but he’s certainly no Wilson either.
While Hoak did lead a touchdown drive, it came inside the second quarter’s final minute when the Chippewas were mostly playing a very soft prevent. He did have a nice throw on his touchdown pass, when CMU sold out on the blitz and Hoak hit a receiver in stride with no deep safety to help. On his two second half drives with CMU playing its normal scheme, however, Hoak was 1-for-4 for two yards. He may play some, especially if Wilson struggles again, but I don’t expect to see a ton of him.
The real power of the offense comes from its two best running backs, Snell and AJ Rose. You should know Snell pretty well by now, and he’s back to his normal form. Kentucky uses him in just about every way possible, including in the Wildcat formation. Here he is taking a direct snap a little to the outside before planting his foot in the ground, turning upfield, and blowing right past three defenders.
Rose looked every bit as good as Snell did in the opener, though he understandably wasn’t asked to do as many things as the much more experienced Snell was. I wouldn’t be surprised if his portfolio expands in Week 2 to take better advantage of his ability.
The bottom line is that Florida must stop the run to win. UK’s rushing success rate against CMU was a great 56.8%, and more than one in five of their carries went for ten or more yards. On the flip side, Kentucky’s passing success rate in the first week was a dismal 25.9% with both Wilson and Hoak below 30% personally. Wilson threw two interceptions and should’ve been picked at least once more, and Hoak found a defender to throw directly at once despite having far fewer snaps.
The Gator defense should be able to put its corners on islands and load up against the Wildcat ground game. If they do that, then UK probably won’t score enough points to pull out a win in the Swamp.