It’s already the end of June, so the football season will be here before we know it. The change in coaching regimes represents the largest change on offense in four years, given how the last head coach stubbornly refused to change anything over his time.
So given all the changes, what should we expect from the Gators’ offense in the fall?
The position I feel most confident in is running back. Jadan Baugh is already getting preseason first team All-SEC honors from the Publix magazine rack, and he figures to be one of the best tailbacks in the country. He rushed for 1,170 yards at over a 5.3 yards per carry clip despite an erratic quarterback, a disappointing offensive line, and an uninspired offensive plan a year ago. And that was in just 12 games; no bowl stats are padding anything there.
The next-most confident I feel is in the wide receivers. That same preseason All-SEC team only has Vernell Brown III on it (as a third teamer), but the collection — when healthy — is rivaled only by Texas within the conference. Brown, Dallas Wilson, and Eric Singleton make up the best front line of receivers UF has had since 2019, and the depth at the position is also the best since then. Brown is the quickest, Wilson is a beast, and Singleton is the fastest. They complement each other well, and the next ones up including transfers Bailey Stockton and Micah Mays are nothing to be down about either.
What about quarterback? Well, I don’t know who exactly that’ll be, and you don’t either. The coaches themselves don’t, I believe. I haven’t seen anything from Jon Sumrall or Buster Faulkner to think that they’re being coy about one of Aaron Philo and Tramell Jones having separated himself in the competition. And without any real practice until preseason camp, there’s nothing either can do to beat out the other right now. The position is in suspended animation for now.
Offensive line is a real question mark. There was always going to be a lot of turnover after last season due to the upperclassman-heavy unit, but the staff turnover and resulting transfer activity really shuffled things around. The best I can say is that Gator great Phil Trautwein has earned real benefit of the doubt as a coach. That doesn’t mean the unit will be winning the Joe Moore Award by season’s end, but his coaching should put something of a floor under the quality of play.
Tight end… well, I don’t anticipate getting a lot out of the unit. The last staff didn’t do a lot of development there, and the new staff couldn’t land an impact transfer.
With that review done, what are we looking at on the low end?
When I think about offenses with good skill position talent and absolutely nothing at quarterback, I think of Calvin Johnson-era Georgia Tech. Megatron had a college experience that is completely unheard of now: excelling for three years at a single school while having a terrible passer throwing to him.
In three seasons as the Yellow Jackets’ starting quarterback with Johnson his top target, Reggie Ball failed to complete even 50% of his throws in any single season. Head coach Chan Gailey, not exactly an offensive innovator by 2004-06, somehow couldn’t find anyone better and so stuck with Ball.
The Jackets had junior-year Johnson and a 1,400-yard rusher in Tashard Choice in 2006. Ball completed 44.4% of his throws with 20 TDs (15 of them to Johnson) and five picks. Tech finished 54th of 119 teams at 24.9 points per game.
To be clear, I expect any combination of Philo and Jones to complete well over 50% of throws. The passing game has changed a lot since then, and no one does that poorly over the long haul anymore. I’m just reaching for the biggest contrast between quarterback play and skill position play for the sake of argument.
Georgia Tech was at about the 55th percentile in scoring in ’06 with a future all-time great receiver, a future NFL running back, and a complete void at quarterback with an unimaginative play caller. Last year the 55th percentile would’ve been No. 61 out of 138 teams, which was FIU at 28.5 points per game.
I don’t think any of Florida’s receivers are at junior-year Calvin Johnson level yet, though it’s fair to put Baugh at or above Choice. There is the matter of the level of defense UF will be facing compared to the mid-2000s ACC, but I think a floor around 28 points per game is not unreasonable.
For perspective, 28 points per game is what the Gators did in 2024 with a revolving door of only sometimes-healthy quarterbacks and Billy Napier calling plays. It’d have been in the bottom half of the conference a year ago. This is not some kind of crazy, lofty goal.
What about at the high end?
Well, I think the best recent comparable situation is probably a season I’ve already mentioned: 2019. The Gators were very deep at receiver, got above-average play out of Kyle Trask, and had a terrible offensive line. The biggest differences are that Baugh is an upgrade from Lamical Perine, and UF has no one close to the still-growing Kyle Pitts of 2019. That, and Faulkner has some work to do to prove he’s on Dan Mullen’s level as a play caller.
Those Gators were 29th out of 130 teams nationally at 33.2 points per game. The equivalent from a percentile perspective from last year is a tie of Arizona and Navy, who both finished 30th in the country at 31.5. Scores have compressed since ’19, coming up a bit on the low end and declining some on the high end.
These comps give us a reasonable range of 28 to 31.5 points per game. Both would be a marked improvement over the dreadful 21.6 PPG of 2025.
There are certainly scenarios, most involving key injuries, that would cause a result below that low end. There are also situations where everything gels and one quarterback really takes control and the high end gets exceeded as well. I would certainly take that, and Baugh and Wilson are the kinds of players who could personally take over games and drag that average up higher.
Still, I will keep my eye on about that field-goal’s worth of range: high 20s to low 30s. Believe me, as someone raised on Spurrier football, I am impatient for a result well above that. However for the first year of a new staff with no established starting quarterback and possible line issues, it’d be a good start. As long as it is, indeed, just the start.