Florida’s offense has been a disappointment all season long, but for a while it felt like the Gators’ defense could keep them in just about every game on the schedule. That hasn’t really been the case over the last three weeks as Florida has allowed 30+ points to Kentucky, Ole Miss, and Tennessee.
The most glaring difference has been Florida’s run defense, which has seen a massive decline in production since week 11. Over the last three games, Florida has allowed 718 rushing yards, an average of nearly 240 yards per game. To put this into perspective, the worst rushing defense in the country currently allows 237 rushing yards per game (Georgia Southern).
Florida allowed just 962 rushing yards through the first eight games of the season, ranking 35th in the country in run defense at 120.25 yards per game prior to Kentucky.
So what happened to Florida’s run defense? Like everything else in the game of football, it’s likely a combination of several things.
For starters, the Gators played probably the best two offenses they’ve seen all season in Ole Miss and Tennessee. Those two teams have scored a ton of points on really good defenses this season. It’s certainty a factor, but it doesn’t excuse the Kentucky game (233 rushing yards) or change the fact that Florida limited good rushing offenses in USF, Miami, Georgia, and even Texas A&M to a certain extent.
And then you have the injuries. The Gators have been without several significant contributors on defense this season including a number of defensive backs. It’s forced Florida to play walk on safeties and lean on freshmen at times.
Lack of effort plays have also been an issue. With Florida sitting at 3–8, their season has effectively been over for weeks, and many are questioning whether the team has mentally checked out. It’s fair to wonder if the Gators have been preparing the right way, regardless of what the effort looks like on game day. This is a team that entered the year with lofty expectations and fell woefully short, and human nature inevitably factors in. While effort is difficult to measure, it’s hard to explain the defense’s performance over the last three weeks after a promising start to the season.
Lastly, Florida was one of the best tackling teams in college football through the first eight games, grading as high as second in the country per Pro Football Focus. While they still rank 18th, the missed tackle numbers have spiked recently. Florida has missed 95 tackles on the season, 31 of which were in the last two games vs. Ole Miss and Tennessee. The Gators set season highs in both contests. This is likely a result of all three factors I already mentioned.
Florida is set to face in-state rival Florida State in the season finale, who ranks 11th in the country in rushing offense. The Gators need a win to avoid the program’s worst season since 1979.