In my advanced stats review of the Florida-South Carolina game, I went into detail on what appeared to be something of a strategy to run out the clock with the Gator defense. I used comments from a Todd Grantham press conference earlier in the week as supporting evidence.
To be clear, I didn’t and don’t think it’s their first choice. It’s more that if South Carolina wanted to fritter away the clock, Florida wasn’t going to discourage that by getting hyper aggressive and opening itself up to allowing big plays.
In his Monday press conference this week, Dan Mullen addressed the team’s performance down the stretch last Saturday. He confirmed that the way the Gators closed out the game was indeed not the way he wanted to see it done.
“We’ve got to understand, when you get the big leads…”
Let me stop you right there, coach. The big thing to remember here is that we’re discussing how the Gators can close out games with big leads. Thing is, the program hasn’t been in a position where it regularly runs up big leads against teams with a certain level of competence lately.
An overmatched G5 or FCS team? Yep. A hapless Vandy or an FSU without an offensive line? Sure. But even just last year UF was down 20-17 through three quarters to an injury-ravaged South Carolina team that finished 4-8. Tennessee was still the team that lost to Georgia State when UF beat them 34-3 and not yet the one that rolled up several mediocre wins in a row to end the year. The Gators did close out a good Auburn team, but the lead was never more than 11.
South Carolina is improved, I promise you, even if they’re not going better than 4-6 in 2020. Ole Miss has a legit good offense. The 41-15 bowl win over Michigan to cap 2018 is the only time before this year that anyone on this UF team (transfers aside) has been involved in a game where they ran up a large lead against a team with real competence and closed with authority.
Weird to say, but it’s true to an extent: Florida has to learn how to blow out decent-to-good teams again.
Sorry, coach. Continue.
“We’ve got to understand, when you get the big leads, getting off the field is not just about third down, it is about third down and fourth down. Middle of the third quarter… they were a four-down team. You have to make two plays to get off the field instead of one. You’re a stop, or a score away really from the game being completely out of reach and a lot of backups even playing. And that was disappointing that we didn’t do that.
“We just kind of cruised to the finish line. We’ve got to get that changed.”
Let’s take the defense first, since Mullen was more specific there. The Gators made seven third down stops on South Carolina’s last three drives, but the Gamecocks went on to convert five fourth downs.
Three conversions were 4th & 1 rugby scrums, and I’m not sure UF has the beef up front to reliably stop those until and unless Kyree Campbell comes back. On the first and third conversions, South Carolina double-teamed the biggest defender, Tedarrell Slaton, and handled everyone else with one-on-one blocks. The last of them saw Gervon Dexter make a good play, at least, but the angle of the run didn’t allow him to make the stop.
Terrific job by Dexter to shed his block on 4th & 1, but he can't make the play by himself from that angle. Needed Carter to get off his block a little more and/or Miller to get in the hole a little earlier to get the stop. pic.twitter.com/RYr8A1uWgw
— David Wunderlich (@Year2) October 6, 2020
Then the middle one was a quarterback sneak, and Florida wasn’t even lined up on time. Brenton Cox was running behind his teammates to get to the right spot when the ball was snapped.
The other two conversions were Shi Smith catching quick hitters on a pair of 4th & 4 situations. On the first, Marco Wilson gives Smith an eight-yard cushion. UF is playing two deep safeties, so Wilson can’t press Smith without potentially giving up a big play if he guesses the wrong route.
Here is the second.
Wilson (finally) gets an assignment to cover Smith tight on 4th & 4. Wilson gets off balance, either from a bit of a push or just his momentum on the turn (hard to tell), and gives just enough window for the ball to get through pic.twitter.com/SIiVkQpEYI
— David Wunderlich (@Year2) October 6, 2020
Wilson gets to play press this time. Smith feints like he’s going inside again before turning out. There’s a little contact on the turn, and whether it’s that or Wilson’s momentum or both, it’s enough for Smith to get half a step. Collin Hill puts it right on the money at exactly the right time, and Wilson is still close enough to try to wrench the ball from Smith’s hands. It’s hard to ask for better coverage than that. The other team simply made a great play.
As for the offense, I’m fine with passing to keep the ball moving to run out the clock. Kyle Trask is completing more than 70% of his throws. Kyle Pitts is amazing, and the receiving corps is fully replenished despite losing four quality guys from last year.
UF didn’t run passing plays that were really conducive for keeping the ball and clock moving, though.
On the first drive after Kadarius Toney’s touchdown, Trask opens by trying to hit a well-covered Pitts 22 yards down the field. After a pair of runs pick up the first down, Trask throws from the left hash to the right numbers to a Jacob Copeland who’s almost 30 yards past the line of scrimmage. That’s a long throw, and while Trask has an adequate arm, you need a Feleipe Franks-like cannon to complete that pass. The throw was almost picked, but Copeland played good defense.
On the next play, the throw goes to a well-covered Toney 23 yards upfield and ends in a pass breakup. On third down there finally is a shorter pass play, but Toney falls down on his whip route because Trevon Grimes, who’s getting jammed by a DB, is in the way. It ends in a called interception that should’ve been reviewed.
The following Florida drive mainly fails because of a six-yard loss on second down. It’s a handoff to Toney, who is lined up in the tailback spot.
Grimes gives his blocking target a hearty shove in the back, directing him at Pitts. Pitts, who's pulling around back to block, sidesteps Grimes's guy (?!?), allowing him to tackle Toney for a loss. pic.twitter.com/eOq8owzm6Z
— David Wunderlich (@Year2) October 6, 2020
Pitts is pulling behind the line to be the lead blocker, but he sidesteps a defender that Grimes had blocked his way instead of engaging. I see that Pitts is trying to stick to his lead blocking assignment, but it’s moot if Toney never gets out of the backfield. Trask hits Grimes for nine yards on 3rd & 12 to close out the drive, and South Carolina’s offense slowly bled out the clock from there.
Florida didn’t close out South Carolina as well as it could have. The defense couldn’t stop five fourth down conversions, but only two of those conversions had the same reason for succeeding: the Gamecocks moved the line forward on short yardage (twice), the defense wasn’t lined up in time, the cushion for Smith was too big, and Smith and Hill made a great play.
The offense could’ve helped out some by possessing the ball more. However, Trask kept performing heat checks by throwing it 20+ yards downfield to well-covered targets, and an execution error on a run play led to a big loss.
Don’t forget that, as Mullen himself said, they were able to cruise to the finish line. Everyone who bleeds orange and blue would like to see them drop the hammer instead, but they played well enough for three quarters to build up a cruising lead. This year’s Florida team isn’t at its ceiling yet, but it’s still at a pretty good place right now. Finishing games with authority should come with time.