My instinct was to give this piece the headline, “Three keys to Florida getting back on track against Kentucky”. Then I stopped. Back on what track?
The Gators just beat Vanderbilt 38-17 and gained almost 600 yards in the process. The offense may have had some uncharacteristic execution issues — how many times have you seen Kyle Trask throw an eight-yard pass directly at a target’s feet? — but it wasn’t getting stopped by a bad Vandy defense. After the defense started playing less soft in the secondary and pressured the quarterback more, it was a 31-7 rout the rest of the way.
It goes to show how much expectations have risen for the Gators since the season began.
I can tell you this right now: UK will not lose another 63-3 final tomorrow. Do not expect Florida to beat the Wildcats like Alabama did. The Tide is an elite team, but that was also the worst Kentucky is likely to play in a game this year.
Ignore Bama as much as you can and focus on Florida. Here are the keys to the game, and focusing on Florida is one of them.
How many Wildcats will play?
Earlier this week, Mark Stoops announced that 18 players and ten staffers were out of commission either due to injuries or COIVD-19 issues. The Wildcats were down ten players against Alabama, and the program didn’t specify whether it was COVID or injury for those guys.
Without giving a name, Stoops did say Monday that one of his key players who missed the Alabama game was a false positive from last Friday’s testing. The player who best fits that description is linebacker Jamin Davis, who still holds a 15-tackle lead on any of his teammates despite missing the game last week. He appeared on the weekly depth chart, whereas some of the guys who missed the Bama game did not.
Still missing is running back Chris Rodriguez, who is UK’s best offensive player. He’s been consistently outstanding all year, including rushing for more than 100 yards against Georgia.
His backup is familiar face Asim Rose, who is within a yard per carry of Rodriguez. However while Rodriguez has been above five yards per carry in every game but one, Rose has run up his stats against teams like Ole Miss, Missouri, and Vandy. He did have a nice first half last week before things got out of hand, though.
As is the case for 2020, it’s hard to keep COVID issues contained. After last week’s Friday surprise, there’s nothing to say UK won’t have another this week. They’ll probably have some key players back like Davis, so right now UK doesn’t appear like it’ll be as shorthanded as it was against the Tide. We’ll have to see at game time tomorrow if anything changes.
No deep passes
Terry Wilson’s performance against UF in 2018 remains one of if not his best passing performance against an SEC opponent, all things considered. He’s not been as good this year as he was that year after missing most of 2019 to injury. Florida therefore should be able to keep him from completing deep passes.
According to the data at SEC Stat Cat, Wilson has completed 3-of-16 passes (19%) that went more than 20 yards downfield. He’s not much better at 10-of-30 (33%) between 11 and 20 yards downfield. It’s also clear that Wilson is best over the middle, as his completion percentage is best there at every level except the 20+. He’s only thrown one pass that far over the middle, and it went incomplete.
In short, there is no excuse for Wilson to light up the secondary with long passes like he did two years ago. And if he can’t complete any long passes, Kentucky shouldn’t be able to score enough points to keep up with the Gator offense for more than a half.
I don’t know what Todd Grantham will call for, but more of the pillow-soft coverage doesn’t make much sense. UK is a rushing team first and second, so he should trust his cover corners to play tight and otherwise focus on the run. Don’t make it complicated — and don’t give up the deep ball.
Play to the Gator Standard
UF had a subpar week of practice leading into the Vandy game. I hope the early issues on both sides of the ball helped to refocus the team after they heard how they were the 2007 Patriots reincarnated following the Georgia and Arkansas wins.
Florida is a better team than every opponent left. They need to be the best they can be and not worry about what anyone else outside the program is saying. Dan Mullen’s talking points about The Gator Standard are what come into play here. Are they playing to that standard or not?
Despite the circumstances, UK is a good test for whether Florida is trying to hit that high standard. Stoops has played Mullen tough consistently. Kentucky is Mississippi State’s annual cross-division game, so they’ve played each other every year since Stoops got to Lexington. It’s not always gone well for Mullen.
Stoops’s first team in 2013 was dreadful, but State only won 28-22. Stoops beat Mullen in 2016 and 2018. He had the Gators on the ropes last year before his defense decided to stop playing following Trask taking over. It’s too much to say that Stoops has Mullen’s number, because Mullen’s terrific 2014 and 2015 teams won by double digits and his final MSU team in 2017 won big 45-7.
So what kind of game will it be? Is this going to be one where Stoops can push a Mullen-led team, or will the Gators blow the doors off of the Wildcats from the jump? In other words: will Florida hit The Gator Standard or not?