The Florida Gators are seven games into the 2022 season and hold a record of 4-3 (1-3 SEC). This isn’t the start that many of you wanted to see from Florida, but it’s one that was expected. The Gators projected win total before the season started was set somewhere between 6.5 and 7 wins (range based on which site you use). BetMGM and FanDuel had Florida’s over/under at 6.5 wins, according to Gator Country’s David Wunderlich.
With five games remaining on Florida’s schedule, seven wins is still attainable. Although nothing is given in the SEC, I like Florida’s chances against South Carolina and Vanderbilt. Two victories there give Florida six wins on the season and a bowl game appearance. Assuming Florida doesn’t pull off an upset over Georgia, that leaves TAMU and FSU. Florida could win or lose both of these games. If the Gators split them, which I feel is the more likely scenario, that gives Florida seven wins on the season, which exceeds or at the very least meets Vegas’s expectations for this season.
You can say what you want about Vegas’s odds and expectations for the season, but the bottom line is Vegas is in the sports gambling industry to make money. They try to create a number so that 50 percent of the bets go on one side, and 50 percent go on the other; that’s how they ensure profit. They create these numbers based on the team’s talent, coaching staff, strength of schedule, and more. Everything is accounted for.
It’s not all about professional opinions either. Gator fans across the country predicted anywhere between 5 and 9 wins this season. Florida is going to fall somewhere in the middle. It’s important to recognize that this team wasn’t supposed to contend for an SEC championship in year one under Billy Napier; asking that much is unreasonable, considering the talent he was left with. This football team won six games last season and lost their bowl game to UCF.
You could argue that Florida has a harder schedule this year as opposed to last year. Florida added the reigning Pac-12 champions and Eastern Washington and dropped FAU and Samford. Florida did have a home game against Alabama last year, but that was replaced with a road game in College Station. TAMU isn’t as good as advertised, but it’s always tough to play on the road against TAMU. Florida also added two road games against a much-improved Tennessee and Florida State.
If Florida can go 3-2 in their last five games, Florida will have more wins than last year, against a harder schedule. It’s going to take an adjustment from this coaching staff to get three more wins, but it’s certainly possible.
I predicted an 8-4 season for the Gators. Eight wins is still possible, but I’d say pretty unlikely at this point with the current state of the defense. The important note here is that I didn’t expect Florida’s defense to look this bad. I’m aware that the product on display this season isn’t acceptable, but so is the coaching staff.
How do you fix it? Recruiting. Napier said all offseason that this team just doesn’t have the depth to be very successful. That isn’t going to be fixed overnight. I’ve said from early on in the season that the Gators’ defense is a long-term project. It’s not going to surprise me if the Gators’ defense struggles mightily again next season.
I think it’s important to take a step back and look at the bigger picture when you evaluate this season for the Gators. Florida is on pace to be where many thought they would be this season. It may not be in the form you would have thought, but the Gators could win seven games this season, which should be considered a step in the right direction.